Tonga General Election - November 27, 2014

[politicus]

The second election since the introduction of parliamentarism in 2010 will be held in Tonga on November 25. The nomination of candidates will take place on Thursday 23rd and Friday 24th of October from 10am to 3pm local time.

The Legislative Assembly (Fale Alea) has 26 seats:

A. 17 people's representatives elected by universal suffrage in single seat constituencies using FPTP.

B. 9 nobility representatives elected by the country's 34 lords and life peers in 3 multimember constituencies (selecting 4/2/2 respectively) and one single seat constituency.

In 2010 the Democratic Party of the Friendly Islands (DPFI) won 12 of 17 people's representatives seats, while independents won the remaining 5 and all nobility seats (which wasn't contested by parties). Three minor parties ran in the election without being represented.

The leader of the DPFI Samueila 'Akilisi Pohiva did not become Prime Minister, since all nobles and independents backed  Lord Tuʻivakanō as Prime Minister, so Tonga is yet to have it's first democratically elected head of government, but that may change this time.

Parties:

Democratic Party of the Friendly Islands (DPFI) is a Social Democratic party founded in 2010 by people from the progressive wing of the pro-democracy Human Rights and Democracy Movements to contest the first commoner majority election. It won 28,5% of the commoner votes and 12 seats in 2010.

People's Democratic Party (PDP) was founded in 2005 by conservatives splitting from the pro-democracy movement. Its leader former Police Minister Clive Edwards was elected to the Legislative Assembly for PDP as MP for Tongatapu in a by-election in 2005, but the party only got 2,4% and did not win any seats in the 2010 election. Clive Edwards was subsequently included in  Lord Tuʻivakanō's Cabinet as Minister for Revenue Services and Public Enterprises.

Tongan Democratic Labor Party (TDLP) was founded in 2010 by members of the country's strongest union, the Tongan Public Servants Association, to represent the interests of public employees. It got 0,4% of the votes.

Paati Langafonua Tu'uloa (Sustainable Nation-Building Party) (PLT) is a Conservative party founded in 2007 by New Zealand born lawyer Sione Fonua with the aim of becoming the main centre-right party in Tonga, when democracy was introduced. Fonua moved to Tonga in 2008 and is still the President of the party, that got 1,4% in the 2010 election.  

The result of the upcoming election is fairly unpredictable. There is no polling and in 2010 only three MP's got over 50% and 11 got less than 30%, with some constituencies having up to 25 candidates.

Constitutional dispute:
Since the election DPFI has pushed for constitutional change and tried to unseat the government twice, but without any luck. They want the voters to elect the Prime Minister directly among the 17 people's representatives and a ban on the King appointing non-MP's as cabinet members (which makes them ex officio MP's with full voting rights).

Link to Electoral Commission: http://www.tongaelections.com/

[politicus]

There is something quaint about a country where the following announcement can be made:

"MEDIA RELEASE

Nobles By-Election for Niuatoputapu and Niuafo’ou District

The three Nobles of the electoral district of Niuatoputapu and Niuafo’ou elected Lord Fusitu’a in a by-election held yesterday Thursday 22nd May, 2014 to be their representative to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga, replacing his father the late Lord Fusitu’a who passed away on 24th April, 2014. He will represent the nobles for the ‘Ongo Niua’ for the rest of the current Parliamentary term before the next General Election in November this year.

The by-election was held at the Palace Office, Nuku’alofa from 10:00am to 12:00 noon and was attended by all three nobles of Niuatoputapu and Niuafo’ou namely, Lord Fotofili, Lord Fusitu’a and Lord Tangipa. Lord Fusitu’a was elected by 2 votes."

Wonder whether Lord Fusitu’a voted for himself or if that's against protocol.

[politicus]

Constituencies

Tongatepu 1:


Tongatepu 2:


Tongatepu 3:


Tongatepu 4:


Tongatepu 5:

[politicus]

Tongatepu 6:


Tongatepu 7:


Tongatepu 8:


Tongatepu 9:


Tongatepu 10:

[politicus]

'Eua 11:


Ha'apai 12:


Ha'apai 13:

[politicus]

Vava'u 14:


Vava'u 15:


Vava'u 16:


'Ongo Niua 17:

[Zanas]

So, not a democracy then. Everyone's okay with it or are there any protests ? I know the Channel Island of Sark recently had to get rid of their nobility system altogether.

[politicus]

So, not a democracy then. Everyone's okay with it or are there any protests ? I know the Channel Island of Sark recently had to get rid of their nobility system altogether.

No, see the constitutional dispute section in the OP.

Democracy in Tonga is a gradual process and DPFI will see if they can win a majority this time before anything further happens. I think the only real dispute will be if DPFI wins 14 seats and the King tries to stop them by appointing ex officio MP's to get a majority in parliament. The Prime Minister would have to be from DPFI in this scenario, since the King can not appoint ministers (=ex officio MP's) before there is a government, which requires a Prime Minister, whom his Majesty has to appoint from the majority in the Assembly (presumably the PM could then be topled by the new majority in the Assembly, but  that would obviously lead to open conflict). So it would be chaotic.

It seems, however, that the present King is a laid back type and not a dictator in spe, so in all likelyhood he would accept a DPFI government if they get 14 seats or above. A 13/13 split would be interesting, though

[politicus]

106 candidates, 16 of them women, are running.

In the 10 Tongatapu constituencies there are 61 candidates incl. 13 women. In the 7 Outer Islands constituencies 45 candidates, 3 women.

15 incumbents run for reelection, only two have declined.

There are 38  fewer candidates than in 2010, so vote splitting looks to be less extreme this time with 8 constituencies having only 3-5 candidates.
 
http://matangitonga.to/2014/10/24/106-candidates-tongas-general-election-2014

http://matangitonga.to/2014/10/28/parliamentary-candidates-outer-islands

[politicus]

There has been some internal scuffles in DPFI and 6 incumbents have left the party and are running as independents. DPFI leader 'Akilisi Pohiva decided to let its many new members partake in the decision on who should run in the election and four incumbents where removed from their candidate list, then two other incumbents left the party in protest against their colleagues being replaced.

Pohiva managed to pay roughly 12,000 $ in legal fees a few days before the October 23-24 candidate registration, so he is standing.

[politicus]

DPFI has won eight seats from the 11 constituencies (10 in Tongatapu and  ‘Eua 11) counted so far.
The results for Vava’u, Ha’apai and the Niuas are yet to be announced.

The party needs to sweep the remaining six constituencies  from the outer islands to be sure they get to form  the next government. Leading centre-right politician and former police chief Clive Edwards didnt get in.

DPFI won:

Tongatapu 1 party leader Samuela Akilisi Pohiva - 1422 votes,
Tongatapu 2 Semisi Sika – 1050 votes,
Tongatapau 4 Mateni Tapueluelu – 781 votes,
Tongatapau 5 ‘Aisake Eke – 1621 votes,
Tongatapau 8 Semisi Fakahau –  991 votes,
Tongatapau 9 – Penisimani Fifita – 648 votes,
Tongatapau 10 Pohiva Tu’ionetoa – 1369 votes,
‘Eua,  Tevita Lavemaau – 760 votes.

The party lost Tongatapau 3, 6 and 7  to  independent candidates.

Tongatapu 3 Siaosi Sovaleni – 975 votes,
Tongatapau 6 Poasi Tei –  1010 votes.
Tongatapau 7 Sione Vuna Fa’otusia – 796 votes

The overall results for Tongatapu and ‘Eua:

TONGATAPU 1
Samuela Akilisi Pohiva 1422 (DPFI)
William Cocker 437
Mosese Manuofetoa 325
Elizabeth Baker 191
Ana Fonua 129
Eliesa Fifita 74
Emeline Tuita 71
Soloni Lutui 7

TONGATAPU 2
Semisi Sika 1050 (DPFI)
Sione Tu’itavake Fonua 526
Soane Patita Fifita 180
Tevita Kaitu’u Fotu 424

TONGATAPU 3
Clive Edwards 503
Gabriella Ilolahia 107
Siaosi Sovaleni 975
Simote Vea 440
Paula Lavulo 13
Tevita Palu 688 (DPFI)
Mele ‘Amanaki 142

TONGATAPU 4
Poli Tuaileva 93
Etuate Sakalia 160
Felise ‘Ulupano 37
‘Etika Koka 481
Tominiko Kama 4
Tevita Ita Koloamatangi 51
Mateni Tapueluelu 781 (DPFI)
Seketi Fuko 237
Isileli Pulu 541

TONGATAPU 5
‘Aisake Eke 1621 (DPFI)
Maliu Takai 1076
Lia Faoa 71
Viliami Mangisi 41

TONGATAPU 6
Sione Tafuna 316
Sifa Tu’utafaiva 589
Salesi Fotu 890 (DPFI)
Poasi Tei 1010

TONGATAPU 7
Paea Molitika 31
Sangster Saulala 741 (DPFI)
Pinomi Prescott 40
‘Atalasa Pouvalu 94
Sione Vuna Fa’otusia 796
Siosifa Filini Sikuea 28
Mavaetangi Manavahetau 197
Sipola Halafihi 660

TONGATAPU 8
Semisi Fakahau 991 (DPFI)
Mafile’o Mataele 32
Tu’i Uata 880
Sione Havea Taione 645
Sipaisi Kutu 12

TONGATAPU 9
Falisi Tupou 542
Penisimani Fifita 648 (DPFI)
Vika Fusimalohi 597
Samipeni Finau 194
Lemasingo Nai 84
Tevita ‘Ofa 496

TONGATAPU 10
Daniel Fale 438
Pohiva Tu’ionetoa 1369 (DPFI)
Semisi Tapueluelu 283
Faka’osilea Kaufusi 826
Seini Teu 45

‘EUA

Sunia Fili 195
Tevita Lavemaau 425 (DPFI)
Silivia Mahe 2
Pouvalu ‘Aholelei 7
Taniela Fusimalohi 143

[politicus]

Results for the Nobles’ election 24 Nobles of the Realm and five Life Lord Peers voted. Eight incumbents reelected, one newbie.

A. Tongatapu
1. Lord Vaea (10 votes)
2. Lord Ma’afu (10)
3. Lord Tu’ivakano ( 8 ) (the Prime Minister, so finishing third isn't impressive)

‘Eua
1. Lord Nuku (7)


B. Ha’apai:
1. Lord Tu’iha’angana (4) (new)
2. Lord Tu’iha’aateiho (4)


C. Vava’u
1. Lord Tu’i’afitu (5)
2. Lord Tu’ilakepa (4)


D. Ongo Niua
1. Lord Fusitu’a (2)


The three Nobles’ Representatives for Tongatapu and the one for ‘Eua were elected by six nobles and five Life Lord Peers each with four votes.

The two Nobles’ Representatives for Ha’apai were elected by six nobles each with two votes.

The Nobles’ Representatives for Vava’u were elected by nine nobles.

The representative for the Niuas was elected by three nobles with the candidate voting blank.

[politicus]

Outer Islands:

Ha'apai:

Ha'apai 12 - Viliami Manu'opangai Hingano

Ha'apai 13 - Veivosa Light of Life Taka (DPFI)


Vava'u:

Vava'u 14 - Saia Ma'u Piukala

Vava'u 15 - Samiu Kuita Vaipulu

Vava'u 16 - 'Etuate Sungalu Lavulavu


Niuas:

Niua 17 - Sosefo Fe'aomoeata Vakata

[politicus]

DPFI only managed to get one seat on the outer islands and two pro-nobility ministers from the current government of Lord Tuʻivakanō were reelected, so its 11-9 to the nobles with 6 independents holding the balance.

DPFI lost two seats compared to 2010 and needs to persuade four independents to join them. The big question now is if ʻAkilisi Pōhiva is ready to give a good deal for the independents or not? Otherwise a minority elected government by nobles will almost certainly lead Tonga in the next four years. In 2010 he refused to bribe independents by offering them cabinet positions and other rewards and only got one independent to join DPFI post-election, but maybe he is less idealistic this time around.


Pro-nobility (2):

Minister for Sports and Youth Sōsefo Feʻaomoeata Vakatā, Niua  
Deputy Prime Minister Sāmiu Kiuta Vaipulu, Vavaʻu 15


DPFI (9):

Samuela Akilisi Pohiva, Tongatapu 1
Semisi Sika, Tongatapu 2
Mateni Tapueluelu, Tongatapu 4
‘Aisake Eke, Tongatapu 5
Semisi Fakahau, Tongatapu 8
Penisimani Fifita, Tongatapu 9
Pohiva Tu’ionetoa, Tongatapu 10
Tevita Lavemaau, ‘Eua 11
Veivosa Taka, Ha’apai 13


Actual Independents (6):

Siaosi ‘Ofakivahafolau Sovaleni, Tongatapu 3
Poasi Tei, Tongatapu 6
Sione Vuna Fa’otusia, Tongatapu 7
Viliami Hingano Manuopangai, Ha’apai 12
Saia Maʻu Piukala, Vava’u 14
‘Etuate Sungalu Lavulavu, Vava’u 16

[politicus]

Half the new Tongan parliament is new, 1 noble and 12 peoples representatives, this is primarily a result of DPFIs decision to allow all their new members to elect the candidates - a decision that also cost thm the election, since many experienced MPs ran as independents. Also many welleducated people among the new MPs.

Of the 12 new peoples representatives seven came from Tongatapu (70%), one from ‘Eua (100%), two from Ha’apai (100%) and two from Vava’u (66,67%).

http://matangitonga.to/2014/11/28/tonga-looks-new-prime-minister

[politicus]

Status is that one independent has joined DPFI, which now has ten seats. DPFI claims they have the backing of two other MPs, who have been offered cabinet posts (but they deny this) and have send offers to two additional MPs, they consider the three remaining to be pro-nobility.

The seven independents that remain unaffiliated have met and agreed they will try to get either the DPFI or the nobles to support a government led by an independent MP. Three of them have stated they prefer to work with the DPFI, but the Minister of Land and Survey is by law required to be a noble (land rights and use is regulated by custom law and a touchy matter), so they need at least one noble to join a democratic government.

Apart from personal ambitions the background is that most of the independents are more economically right wing than DPFI, which is basically a Social Democratic party.

The breakdown among the independents should be:

3 conservatives who would prefer the nobles over DPFI (two of them current ministers)
2-3 who would prefer DPFI over the nobles (DPFI consider one of them an opportunist, he claims he prefers them).
1-2 opportunists who want to be PM/Deputy PM at all costs.

Given that the independents hold the balance of power it looks like Tonga will get a government based on the independent peoples representatives, the question is if it will be a Prime Minister drawn from the more liberal independents in cooperation with the DPFI (which will likely lead to a democratic constitution, or a conservative independent backed by the nobility, which will retain the status quo constitution wise, but the presence of the two opportunists muddle the picture, one of them is apparently under pressure from his constituency to support DPFI.

[politicus]

Tonga's independent MPs and the DPFI have agreed to form the next government after the independents declined a proposal by the nobility to give Lord Vaea the premiership, but the nobles eventually agreed to help them and the DPFI in forming the government by providing the Minister of Land and Survey - there is another meeting today and maybe 1 or 2 additional nobles will join to provide some expertise (they have a very small talent pool..).

It is not yet decided whether current Deputy Prime Minister Samiu Kiuta Vaipulu from the independents or DPFI chairman Samuela ‘Akilisi Pohiva gets the premiership, but its likely that Pohiva will have to budge (a shame because he really deserves it after decades of struggle for democracy with huge economic and personal sacrifices..).

15 of the 17 people's representatives are behind the deal.

Conservative independent (and Sports and Youth Minister) Feʻao Vakatā is talking to his constituency, while another Indie MP Poasi Tei has just left for New Zealand in a family matter, but he is a not a conservative, so he is probably behind the deal.

[politicus]

All seven independents have decided to demand that the Democrats accept to give the Premiership to an independent, saying they will otherwise seek support from the nobles. This shouldn't be a problem since DPFI has declared they are willing to forfeit the top spot, but not a good sign for future cooperation that the Indies are breaking an agreement six of them committed to less than a week ago.

And their argument is absurd, they say 26.100 voted for an independent and only 11.000 for DPFI! So basically they are assuming that anyone who voted for an independent voted for them as if all independents were a single party!

[politicus]

The two week nomination period will be December 9-23, with a final vote on December 29 between the candidates,

[politicus]

The nobles and Independents have made a deal to make current Deputy Prime Minister Sāmiu Kiuta Vaipulu the new Prime Minister. He is the independent MP for the Outer Island constituency Vavaʻu 15, pro-nobility and the most conservative of the Indies, so there will be no constitutional changes (or challenges to the elite having free access to public resources) with him in charge. DPFI says they are optimistic about breaking up the alliance before the final vote on December 29 based on private talks with Indies.

[politicus]

Only two sealed envelopes with candidate names were delivered before the deadline. Names and time for the PM election will be announced in eight hours, but with only two candidates it will be Vaipulu vs. Pohiva.

[politicus]

The PM election will be on Monday at 10am local time, so they stick to the original time plan.

[politicus]

The good guys won!

Veteran democracy activist and DPFI leader Sāmuela ʻAkilisi Pōhiva (72) was elected Prime Minister of Tonga as the first peopleʻs representative.

He won by 15-11 against pro-noble independent MP and former Deputy Prime Minister Samiu Kuita Vaipulu.

[politicus]

This likely means that DPFI also have enough Indies behind them to implement a genuinely democratic constitution without reserved seats for the nobles, but that remains to be seen.

[Simfan34]

Disappointing.