OUTSIDE SPENDING UPDATE:
the sequel to this other thread I madeToday is intentionally a very specific day to take another look at outside spending in competitive Senate races. It's four weeks from election day, and a full week into October (and out of the third quarter). While the PACs, SuperPACs, and 527s aligned with the Democratic Party maintain a slim edge overall, in the last seven days they've been outspent 2-to-1 by groups affiliated with the GOP. Recent outside spending favors Republican candidates in all ten of the states I researched, although in several states, spending for Democratic candidates is only barely trailing.
The GOP surge is most notable in Arkansas, where it's suddenly shifted the overall total firmly in Cotton's favor. Republicans also seem to be making a renewed play for comparatively safer seats in Colorado and New Hampshire; in both states, about a third of all Republican-affiliated expenditures have been made since the beginning of October.
Next week, when candidates' third quarter FEC filings are published, I'll compare these figures to the spending of the campaigns themselves!
(all figures below are in millions of dollars)
Alaska$4.9 pro-Begich + $9.0 anti-Sullivan = $13.9 Democratic spending
$1.9 pro-Sullivan + $7.3 anti-Begich = $9.2 Republican spending
$4.7 million Democratic advantagelast seven days: $1.5 by Republican groups, $1.1 by Democratic groups
Arkansas$0.2 pro-Pryor + $11.4 anti-Cotton = $11.6 Democratic spending
$5.6 pro-Cotton + $7.6 anti-Pryor = $13.2 Republican spending
$1.6 million Republican advantagelast seven days: $2.8 by Republican groups, $0.4 by Democratic groups
Colorado$2.2 pro-Udall + $15.4 anti-Gardner = $17.6 Democratic spending
$3.4 pro-Gardner + $8.4 anti-Udall = $11.8 Republican spending
$5.8 million Democratic advantagelast seven days: $3.6 by Republican groups, $0.9 by Democratic groups
Georgia$0.5 pro-Nunn + $1.3 anti-Perdue = $1.8 Democratic spending
$1.5 pro-Perdue + $4.6 anti-Nunn + $0.7 anti-Sam Nunn (?) = $6.8 Republican spending
$4.3 million Republican advantagelast seven days: $0.8 by Republican groups, $0.0 by Democratic groups
Iowa$0.8 pro-Braley + $12.7 anti-Ernst = $13.5 Democratic spending
$7.9 pro-Ernst + $7.2 anti-Braley = $15.1 Republican spending
$1.6 million Republican advantagelast seven days: $2.2 by Republican groups, $2.1 by Democratic groups
Kentucky$0.2 pro-Grimes + $6.7 anti-McConnell = $6.9 Democratic spending
$4.3 pro-McConnell + $11.5 anti-Grimes = $15.8 Republican spending
$8.9 million Republican advantagelast seven days: $0.9 by Republican groups, $0.0 by Democratic groups
Louisiana$0.0 pro-Landrieu + $6.9 anti-Cassidy = $6.9 Democratic spending
$0.5 pro-Cassidy + $0.3 pro-Maness + $2.1 anti-Landrieu = $2.9 Republican spending
$4.0 million Democratic advantagelast seven days: $0.7 by Republican groups, $0.1 by Democratic groups
Michigan$0.7 pro-Peters + $12.1 anti-Land = $12.8 Democratic spending
$0.9 pro-Land + $7.3 anti-Peters = $8.2 Republican spending
$4.6 million Democratic advantagelast seven days: $1.6 by Republican groups, $0.2 by Democratic groups
North Carolina$3.8 pro-Hagan + $18.9 anti-Tillis = $22.7 Democratic spending
$9.4 pro-Tillis + $6.4 anti-Hagan = $15.8 Republican spending
$6.9 million Democratic advantagelast seven days: $2.1 by Republican groups, $1.6 by Democratic groups
New Hampshire$0.1 pro-Shaheen + $6.7 anti-Brown = $6.8 Democratic spending
$1.5 pro-Brown + $2.9 anti-Shaheen = $4.4 Republican spending
$2.4 million Democratic advantagelast seven days: $1.3 by Republican groups, $1.0 by Democratic groups
TOTAL FOR ALL TEN STATES$114.5 million by Democratic groups ($8.6 million in the last week)
$103.2 million by Republican groups ($17.5 million in the last week)
$11.3 million Democratic advantage in total spending
$8.9 million Republican advantage in last week's spending