OUTSIDE SPENDING UPDATE: October Week 2

[Bacon King]

OUTSIDE SPENDING UPDATE: the sequel to this other thread I made

Today is intentionally a very specific day to take another look at outside spending in competitive Senate races. It's four weeks from election day, and a full week into October (and out of the third quarter). While the PACs, SuperPACs, and 527s aligned with the Democratic Party maintain a slim edge overall, in the last seven days they've been outspent 2-to-1 by groups affiliated with the GOP. Recent outside spending favors Republican candidates in all ten of the states I researched, although in several states, spending for Democratic candidates is only barely trailing.

The GOP surge is most notable in Arkansas, where it's suddenly shifted the overall total firmly in Cotton's favor. Republicans also seem to be making a renewed play for comparatively safer seats in Colorado and New Hampshire; in both states, about a third of all Republican-affiliated expenditures have been made since the beginning of October.

Next week, when candidates' third quarter FEC filings are published, I'll compare these figures to the spending of the campaigns themselves!

(all figures below are in millions of dollars)



Alaska

$4.9 pro-Begich + $9.0 anti-Sullivan = $13.9 Democratic spending
$1.9 pro-Sullivan + $7.3 anti-Begich = $9.2 Republican spending

$4.7 million Democratic advantage

last seven days: $1.5 by Republican groups, $1.1 by Democratic groups


Arkansas

$0.2 pro-Pryor + $11.4 anti-Cotton = $11.6 Democratic spending
$5.6 pro-Cotton + $7.6 anti-Pryor = $13.2 Republican spending

$1.6 million Republican advantage

last seven days: $2.8 by Republican groups, $0.4 by Democratic groups


Colorado

$2.2 pro-Udall + $15.4 anti-Gardner = $17.6 Democratic spending
$3.4 pro-Gardner + $8.4 anti-Udall = $11.8 Republican spending

$5.8 million Democratic advantage

last seven days: $3.6 by Republican groups, $0.9 by Democratic groups


Georgia

$0.5 pro-Nunn + $1.3 anti-Perdue = $1.8 Democratic spending
$1.5 pro-Perdue + $4.6 anti-Nunn + $0.7 anti-Sam Nunn (?) = $6.8 Republican spending

$4.3 million Republican advantage

last seven days: $0.8 by Republican groups, $0.0 by Democratic groups


Iowa

$0.8 pro-Braley + $12.7 anti-Ernst = $13.5 Democratic spending
$7.9 pro-Ernst + $7.2 anti-Braley = $15.1 Republican spending

$1.6 million Republican advantage

last seven days: $2.2 by Republican groups, $2.1 by Democratic groups


Kentucky

$0.2 pro-Grimes + $6.7 anti-McConnell = $6.9 Democratic spending
$4.3 pro-McConnell + $11.5 anti-Grimes = $15.8 Republican spending

$8.9 million Republican advantage

last seven days: $0.9 by Republican groups, $0.0 by Democratic groups


Louisiana

$0.0 pro-Landrieu + $6.9 anti-Cassidy = $6.9 Democratic spending
$0.5 pro-Cassidy + $0.3 pro-Maness + $2.1 anti-Landrieu = $2.9 Republican spending

$4.0 million Democratic advantage

last seven days: $0.7 by Republican groups, $0.1 by Democratic groups


Michigan

$0.7 pro-Peters + $12.1 anti-Land = $12.8 Democratic spending
$0.9 pro-Land + $7.3 anti-Peters = $8.2 Republican spending

$4.6 million Democratic advantage

last seven days: $1.6 by Republican groups, $0.2 by Democratic groups


North Carolina

$3.8 pro-Hagan + $18.9 anti-Tillis = $22.7 Democratic spending
$9.4 pro-Tillis + $6.4 anti-Hagan = $15.8 Republican spending

$6.9 million Democratic advantage

last seven days: $2.1 by Republican groups, $1.6 by Democratic groups


New Hampshire

$0.1 pro-Shaheen + $6.7 anti-Brown = $6.8 Democratic spending
$1.5 pro-Brown + $2.9 anti-Shaheen = $4.4 Republican spending

$2.4 million Democratic advantage

last seven days: $1.3 by Republican groups, $1.0 by Democratic groups


TOTAL FOR ALL TEN STATES

$114.5 million by Democratic groups ($8.6 million in the last week)
$103.2 million by Republican groups ($17.5 million in the last week)

$11.3 million Democratic advantage in total spending
$8.9 million Republican advantage in last week's spending

[Bacon King]

Also while researching this I amusingly discovered that the NRA has just spent $250k on Georgia-targeted internet ads attacking Sam Nunn (not Michelle)

[Bacon King]

OUTSIDE SPENDING IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK (OCTOBER WEEK 2)

All figures are rounded to the thousands because c'mon why would you need to know the numbers to the exact dollar? I wanted to compare these to the previous week as well as the total for the campaign so far but I won't go through all that effort unless there's any interest.

The tl;dr here is that outside groups affiliated with the GOP are dumping a ton of money in a lot of places but are mostly shying away from big Dem-leaning tossup states like Michigan, North Carolina, and Colorado. Democratic groups are only spending big to help Begich out and to save Braley from himself. Overall, the right outspent the left more than two-to-one.



Tier 1: HOLY [INKS] BIG MONEY SPENDERS

Alaska
GOP: $1,332,000
DEM: $1,034,000

Iowa
GOP:    $667,000
DEM: $1,819,000

Kentucky
GOP: $2,337,000
DEM:    $142,000
(Mitch might be panicking but it looks like he's scared off his opposition)

Louisiana
GOP: $1,076,000
DEM:               $0
(it looks like the left is waiting for the runoff)

Kansas
GOP: $1,601,000
Orman:           $0
(they're trying hard to save Roberts, of course)


Tier 2: maybe this is kind of a lot of money for a smaller state

Arkansas
GOP: $536,000
DEM: $158,000
(have we given up on Pryor?)

New Hampshire
GOP: $541,000
DEM: $363,000
(this might be a sleeper race, Republicans are probably hoping Brown will be this cycle's Heitkamp)

South Dakota
GOP: $428,000
DEM:   $91,000
Pressler:       $0
(a liberal group spent $45k against Pressler, which has been the only spending related to him)


Tier 3: Surprisingly not very much money at least compared to what you'd think

Colorado
GOP: $377,000
DEM: $332,000

Georgia
GOP: $339,000
DEM:            $0
(both candidates have a lot of cash themselves, and ads here are hella expensive)

Michigan
GOP: $234,000
DEM:   $29,000

North Carolina
GOP: $124,000
DEM: $179,000



Combined spending in all twelve competitive states over the last seven days

GOP: $9,592,000 (70% of all outside spending)
DEM: $4,147,000