Democratic pollster: For the 1st time, Democrats now favored to retain Senate

[eric82oslo]

From RCP:

Unmarried Women Fuel Pollster's Optimism for Dems

With a month to go until Election Day, veteran Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg says that for the first time this cycle, Democrats appear more likely than not to retain their majority in the Senate.

Unmarried women are driving this bit of optimism: Since July, support for Democratic candidates among this voting bloc has nearly doubled, according to a battleground state survey Greenberg conducted for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices.  

The pollsters told reporters that Democrats have shown resiliency so far and can be helped over the top by a few developments: The president’s approval rating is up slightly from July, and the intensity of opposition to the president is down (16 percent strongly disapprove now compared to 23 percent in July). Greenberg also found that GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell’s image is dropping among voters surveyed.  

The pollster also found that Republicans are underperforming among seniors: The GOP has a five-point advantage with this group, compared to an 11-point advantage in 2012 and a 23-point advantage in 2010. For Republicans, the economy, foreign policy and health care rank as the top three concerns voters have when preparing to go to the polls. But the survey also found that the health care law is a motivating factor that helps Democrats, too. This data, Greenberg says, contributes to a narrowing of the enthusiasm gap: 93 percent for Republicans vs. 91 percent for Democrats.  

“The result is that those voting Democratic are as consolidated and as intent on voting as those voting for Republicans. That Republican advantage is now gone in the battlegrounds,” the pollster wrote.

Read more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html