Is the US Economy starting to thin again?
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  Is the US Economy starting to thin again?
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Author Topic: Is the US Economy starting to thin again?  (Read 2725 times)
sg0508
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« on: October 07, 2014, 10:30:25 AM »

Some obvious indicators lead me to think we're at the beginning of a downturn:

1) Overall peaking of the stock market in spring/early summer and lately, some significant drops
2) Home prices and activities declining for the first time in a while the past few months
3) Many articles indicating that peak-hiring may have already occurred

Opinions?
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King
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2014, 10:32:44 AM »

I don't see any of those three things happening at the moment. Link?
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bedstuy
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2014, 11:29:28 AM »

Asset prices rise = the market has peaked, we're in for a crash!

Asset prices fall = they're going to keep falling, we're in for a crash!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2014, 05:23:45 PM »

1) Overall peaking of the stock market in spring/early summer and lately, some significant drops

I'm a bit dubious about this sort of claim. Below is the S&P 500 since the market bottom in March '09



Your "significant drop" is circled on the right. The other circles are market declines larger than the current one followed by continued gains, economic growth etc. Given the above evidence what makes you think that the current decline is indicative of an upcoming recession?

Of course, for all I know, we could be on the cusp of a recession, but a ~2% market decline doesn't give us any useful information about that.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2014, 12:46:24 AM »

Uncle Fred says, "not really"

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muon2
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2014, 04:08:01 PM »


Then again Uncle Fred's boss at the St Louis Fed felt the need to issue market-soothing comments today. He hinted that perhaps QE should continue if things continue to look weak.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2014, 08:17:47 AM »

If there is 1% inflation and the rest of the world is headed toward recession or much more conservative growth, QE is kind of a good idea even if there is still solid growth.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2014, 04:56:40 PM »

Asset prices rise = the market has peaked, we're in for a crash!

Asset prices fall = they're going to keep falling, we're in for a crash!


Preach.

Indeed, the stock market fluctuates vastly.  I think the ShadowStats people greatly exaggerate any weaknesses.  Certainly, we're not completely out of the woods, but the economic fundamentals are stronger than they've been for the past few years for sure.
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2014, 04:05:49 PM »

One good question is how long this business cycle will last. I definitely think that the overpricing of commodities and all the speculation and investment incentivised by it could be a major factor.
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King
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2014, 04:57:23 PM »

The market is just doing its free money trick of shorting the Dow at 17,000 and then buying it all back 16,000 and fleecing dumb people.
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