1) Overall peaking of the stock market in spring/early summer and lately, some significant drops
I'm a bit dubious about this sort of claim. Below is the S&P 500 since the market bottom in March '09
Your "significant drop" is circled on the right. The other circles are market declines larger than the current one followed by continued gains, economic growth etc. Given the above evidence what makes you think that the current decline is indicative of an upcoming recession?
Of course, for all I know, we
could be on the cusp of a recession, but a ~2% market decline doesn't give us any useful information about that.
