1976 Election ("What if"-scenario)
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  1976 Election ("What if"-scenario)
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Author Topic: 1976 Election ("What if"-scenario)  (Read 14527 times)
Nym90
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« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2003, 05:59:54 PM »

Most of the problems of the late 1970's would have befallen whomever was President, that's true. But that would seem to contradict that Carter was incredibly incompetent. You can't really have it both ways there. Personally I feel that Carter was a great man but he was somewhat out of his league as President...he didn't have the most intricate understanding of how things worked in Washington, and he tried to micromanage too much. He came on TV every night addressing the nation about the state of the Iran hostage negotiations, which obviously tied him directly to the ultimate outcome of those negotiations. He was perhaps a little too hands on for his own good, and would have been better off delegating more responsibility. Clinton had many of these same problems during his first two years, but unlike Carter, he turned things around starting in his 3rd year. I think that Carter was a great man and humanitarian who did as best as he could, but would have been better off with a little more preparation. He probably would not have been nominated by the Dems in the first place if it hadn't been for Watergate and the backlash that created against Washington politicans.

I'm kind of surprised that Republicans even admit that Reagan would have had trouble during this time, since if the problems of that era were intractable, then it somewhat diminishes the case for Reagan's election in 1980. Carter at the time tried to make this argument, as did Hoover in 1932, that he was doing as well as anyone could have hoped to. That argument never works, of course, even when it is true, and Reagan, as did FDR, laughed it off all the way to victory.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #26 on: November 30, 2003, 05:40:34 AM »

I'm glad that Carter won in 1976 for one very good reason: Camp David.
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Nym90
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« Reply #27 on: November 30, 2003, 03:11:18 PM »

Indeed, good point RealPolitik, I had forgotten about the Israel-Egypt peace accord which was a major advancement in the Middle East.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2003, 03:37:08 PM »

If Reagan won in 1976 IO don't see him being soft on Iran at all.  Remember libya int he 80's, we went right after thenm and Kadafi (sp) has been quite ever since!  at least publicly.  

Camp david was very good for Carter and the world.  Always respected Jimmy.  Hellva nice guy,just a poor President.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #29 on: December 10, 2003, 12:17:27 PM »

I'll take a crack at it.  First, I think that the idea of a Reagan victory being nearly impossible isn't quite right.  You have to remember that at the start of the 76 election, Carter was ahead by 30%.  That lead nearly evaporated by election day and Carter only won by 2%.  With 296(?) electoral votes.  Most analysts aggree that if the election had lasted another week Ford would have won.  If we assume that Nixon's baggage was part of the reason Ford didn't get elected than we must also assume that if that wasn't present it may have given Ford about a 5% jump or so (just a guestiment).  If Reagan had been nominated, I don't think that many of the Ford people would have voted for Carter and Reagan wouldn't have been tied down by Watergate.  Reagan very well could have won, abeit by a slim marigin, probably smaller than the margin that Carter defeated Ford by in real-life.
Now, what would Reagan have done as president?  The first thing you have to remember is that Reagan's primary contribution to the economy of the 80's and 90's wasn't his tax cuts (although they were a big part) but his deregulation.  Reagan would have eliminated price controls, which were killing the economy at the time and he would have relaxed tariffs which would have helded out the US and someother countires.  Reagan also would have tackled inflation.  He would have come up with real solutions like the ones he used in the 80's (altering the money supply, etc.) so no more "WIN" buttons.
In foriegn relations.  No Soviet invasion of Afganastan.  They would have been terrified of Reagan the same way they were terrified of Nixon (Think Nixon's 'Mad Man' Policey).  Reagan wouldn't have pleadged to not use nuclear weapons as Carter had.  Knowing this, the Iranians would have been much more squimish about taking hostages in the first place.  If hostages were taken I doubt there would have been anything like the failed night operation (I can't remember what it was codenamed) we had under Carter.  Reagan wouldn't have bothered, I don't know what he would have done, but it would have been far more drastic (I mean that in a good way).
Reagan was also able to build a much better relationship with congress than Carter.  So, Reagan probably would have had more success and less frustration than Carter had in dealing with the Washington establishment.
Don't get me wrong, this would indeed have been a difficult time period for any president.  Carter is a good man, but he was totally inept as president.  If Reagan would have been able to manage the issues better, he may have been re-elected in 80.  There are many other things that could/would have happened, but I don't really feel like writing a term paper.

If Reagan had lost in 76 than I think Bush would have been the candidate in 80.
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CHRISTOPHER MICHAE
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« Reply #30 on: December 10, 2003, 10:12:05 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2003, 10:17:29 PM by Christopher Michael »

LBJ was born in Texas, which I would think is considered to be part of the South (it was part of the old Confederacy during the Civil War, which is usually the definition of the South).
Also, although Carter did worse in the South in 1980 than in 1976, the South was still more Democratic than the nation as a whole, and in fact 1980 was the last election in which this was true. Most of the southern states that Reagan won were by narrow margins (in fact it's kind of interesting how the results were so similar in many of them, there were alot where Reagan won by 1-2%). If Carter had run just a little bit better nationally his loss wouldn't have looked so bad in the Electoral College, as he could've picked up North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas.
The South was still mostly a Democratic region in 1980, it wasn't until 1984 that the dye was cast for the South to become a Republican region.
I agree with you Nym90, and I wish we could meet face to face, I'd like to talk politics with you. However, 2004 may turn around that 20yr. Republican Southern Dominance. We could see, because of Dem. Candidates Clark and Edwards, a Southern Swing to the Democrats. Plus, Gore, [even though he failed to carry Tennessee] is from the South and was first mate to one of the greatest Economic Skippers of all time, W.J.C., who was also from the South, Arkansas, like Clark is. So, such success is contagious. Feel free to IM me or e-mail me, Nym90, and perhaps we can get together and talk politics and our own political ambitions!
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M
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« Reply #31 on: December 18, 2003, 02:37:21 PM »

U sure about LBJ being Born in Texas?? I'm just asking not challenging that. I cant remember where I read he was born outside Texas so it may have been an unreliable source.

I can state however that while many people in the South voted for him as the democrat, they didnt really consider him a southern President. He didnt gel very well with Souherners outside Texas. He was one of two or three Southern legislators to refuse to sign the Souhern Manifesto and he also fell out of favor on other issues.
Btw Great society aside I kinda like the guy. He seemed like a decent President for the time.

LBJ was born in Texas, which I would think is considered to be part of the South (it was part of the old Confederacy during the Civil War, which is usually the definition of the South).

LBJ was born in Stonewall, TX. As in "There stands Jackson like a Stone Wall! Rally behind the Virginians!" He was most definitely a Southerner- remember the old joke, Kennedy proved a Catholic could be president, Johnson proved that a Southerner could be president, and Carter proved that anyone could be president".

However, Johnson was afraid to associate with the South, since he did not want it to tarnish his pro-Civil Rights image. So he started caling Texas 'Southwest' in the '60 primary. Incidentlly, that is where this geographical expression, 'the Southwest', caught on.

Texas identifies both historically and currently most with the South. (Galveston the Wall Street of the South pre-1900, Rice the Harvard of the South). However, there is an Old West connection; thus, the "Buckle of the Sun Belt."

I'm not sure about Reagan's electability, but as to his MidEast policies: no overthrow of the Shah, no invasion of Afghanistan, Camp David still occurs. Saddam still overthrows govt of Iraq and invades Iran, which is strongly backed by Egypt and Israel, seen as proxy war with Iran friendly to USA, Iraq to Soviets.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #32 on: June 16, 2008, 05:18:33 PM »

All hail the 4th-oldest thread!
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #33 on: June 16, 2008, 05:43:43 PM »


Well...the fourth oldest that remains. A lot of old threads were purged from the forum a couple years back when Dave was cleaning it.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #34 on: June 16, 2008, 05:45:35 PM »


Well...the fourth oldest that remains. A lot of old threads were purged from the forum a couple years back when Dave was cleaning it.

It looks like only about half of the original 100 threads are extant. I can't get past 17, and 17-19 are locked.
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #35 on: June 16, 2008, 06:13:03 PM »

You need to stop bumping old threads for useless reasons.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #36 on: June 16, 2008, 06:14:16 PM »

You need to stop bumping old threads for useless reasons.

I rarely do. Very rarely.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #37 on: June 16, 2008, 06:14:25 PM »

Notice how long, extensive, and thought provoking the responses were
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #38 on: June 16, 2008, 07:05:39 PM »

Notice how long, extensive, and thought provoking the responses were

Oh yeah:

U sure about LBJ being Born in Texas??
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