Small Island Developing States Elections: Trinidad and Tobago on September 7

[StateBoiler]

Absolutely disgusting individual and human being Jack Warner (former longtime president of CONCACAF and heavily tied into FIFA scandals) represents Chaguanas West. He co-led UNC's election campaign in 2010 which they won, after which he became Minister of National Security (meaning he controlled the police). Since his political troubles, he left the UNC and is part of a one-man party called the Independent Liberal Party. Mr. Warner is likely the richest man in Trinidad & Tobago due to riches gained from soccer, so we'll see if his wealth can buy political power.

[politicus]

NACTA poll from August 30:

United National Congress (UNC) leads in 21 of the 41 constituencies, but several of these seats are within the margin of error. So a tie. Its allies in the People's Partnership coalition do not seem to get any seats.


National support for parties:

People's Partnership  45%
PNM 40%
Independent Liberal Party 4%
Others 11%


Prefered PM:

Kamla Persad-Bissessar 46%
Dr. Keith Rowley 41%
Dunno/undecided 13%


Opinion of Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s performance as PM:

Approve 54%
Disapprove 37%
Dunno 9%


Job approval rating for Dr. Keith Rowley as Leader of the Opposition:

Approve 49%
Disapprove 40%
Dunno 11%


Favorability:

Kamla Persad-Bissessar

Positive 57%
Negative 37%
Neutral 6%


Dr. Keith Rowley:

Positive 52%
Negative 39%
Neutral 9%


This will be a nailbiter. A pity there is no ethnic breakdown in the poll.

[politicus]

Community Development Minister and Mayaro MP Winston "Gypsy" Peters’ resignation from UNC last week seems to have had no effect on the polls. Gypsy is a close ally (and crony) of Jack Warner, so it is no surprise he left. He is by his own words also "a close friend" of People’s National Movement leader Dr Keith Rowley, but that may be more of a tactical alliance.

He is running as an Indie and if he hangs on that will effectively be another ILP seat.


Reporter:

"Does this signal the end of your political career?"

Gypsy: "NO! I feel to dance. I feel gooood"

Caribbean style... LOL

[politicus]

Decent short background.

http://news.yahoo.com/trinidad-pm-election-fight-over-crime-corruption-claims-040204903.html

Party manifests (not that they matter much..)

http://www.caribbeanelections.com/elections/tt_elections.asp

Polls closed (6PM local time, so 15 min ago).

[politicus]

Polls extended to 7PM on Trinidad, due to bad weather during the day. So only closed on Tobago.

[politicus]

PNM are in the lead in both Tobago constituencies and so far 9 Trinidad constituencies, while PP has the upper hand in 6. So looking good for the opposition so far.

Both Tobago constituencies are currently held by PM Kamla Persad-Bissessars allies from Tobago Organisation of the People (TOP).

[politicus]

10-7 on Trinidad. PNM is ahead in both San Fernando constituencies (East and West).

[Simfan34]

Never knew there were that many Indians in Trinidad.

[politicus]

PNM is ahead in thinly populated Mayaro in the SE. It went UNC in both 2007 and 2010. Not a good sign for Kamla P.-B. She needs those rural seats.

[politicus]

Only partials results so far, they ares still counting. My bad. But still looking good for PNM.

http://www.elections.tt

[politicus]

16-11 to PNM at the moment.

[politicus]

PNM has a huge lead in both Tobago constituencies and the San Fernando "twins".

[politicus]

18-11

[politicus]

6 of the ones they haven't started on are northern seats, which should go PNM in a close or even semi-close election.

[politicus]

It looks like PP will win big in Jack Warners Chaguanas West constituency.  Around 3400 counted and he only has 71.

[politicus]

18-13

[politicus]

17-15

PP is catching up and there are some close races.

But most of the 9 not given a favourite yet are in PNM territory.

[politicus]

19-15

PNM is ahead all over the north, and has got Tobago, the San Fernando twins and two in the SW. If they get the rest of the north they have got this - and they should certainly do so with this pattern.

[politicus]

19-17 to PNM now, but 2 northern still out.

Popular vote:

PP 54.1
PNM 44.3

But PNMs is a lot more efficiently distributed.

[politicus]

19-18

Very clear map. PNM has the north, Tobago, San Fernando and SW. Looks like the two Tobago constituencies will win this for the.

[politicus]

19-19, but two northern among the three uncounted. It should be 21-20 as predicted.

[politicus]

PNM is solidly ahead in two of the three remaining and are also 500 in front in the three way race in St. Joseph, so it looks like 22-19.

[politicus]

Jack Warner got 4 112 in Chaguanas West, but 17 000+ to the PP candidate so not close.

[politicus]

Popular vote:

PP 51.1
PNM 46.1
ILP 2.0

[politicus]

PNM de facto has 21 seats now. Only the three way race in mixed race St. Joseph is wide open. They are all with 300 votes of each other.