Small Island Developing States Elections: Trinidad and Tobago on September 7

[politicus]

There seems to be no connection between the numbers and the seats they are calling, that makes it a bit boring. One was called with the opponent ahead and one on 0% reported..

But 2-1 to DLP now.

[Vega]

There seems to be no connecting between the numbers and the seats they sare calling, that makes it a bit boring. One was called with the opponent ahead and one on 0% reported..

But 2-1 to DLP now.

Yeah, they called a seat for a incumbent who was trailing by 20 points with 50% in, and the incumbent only won by 2 points last election. Odd.

[politicus]

Barbados also has a Bolivarian vs. social democrat political system, I believe.

UWP is centre-right, despite the name. It was never Social Democratic. It was founded by disgruntled businessmen with basis in the local Rotary Club in 1988 to allow off-shore exploration and lower taxes. Also gave asylum to some dubious business types when in power.

DLP are still pretty standard SocDem in their policies, despite cooperating with Venezuela and getting some free stuf, like tablets to school children and help with harbour improvement.

[politicus]

The second Indie Jerome Peter Lavashire is the VP for the Small Business Association, so not another left winger.

[politicus]

Things seem to be even more complicated at the moment... This article says the leftists are dropping DLP and going to UWP because they feel it has betrayed its left wing roots.

"These influencers have since been sidelined by the party which has lost its soul and has become a hollow shadow of what it was meant to be ... And, in what some see as apostasy, those from the left are leaving in droves and are now throwing their support behind the UWP."

http://sundominica.com/articles/left-leaves-labour-1882/

[politicus]

11-5

Ian Douglass beat his leftist cousin in Portsmouth. UWP lost again, but are already ahead of their 2009 result (3 seats). Both Lennox Linton and former UWP chairman Hector John are in.

EDIT: Lavashire also lost to a DLP guy, so no Indie MPs.

[politicus]

Constituency map:

[politicus]

14-5

UWP won 2 by-elections in 2010, so they just keep their seats. They won two urban/partly urban seats in Roseau in the south (central + north) and a rural belt across the lower northern part of the island (Salisbury, Marigot, Wesley).

[politicus]

15-6

UWP also got Roseau South, so the whole urban area, down there.

So +1 to the opposition.

[politicus]

Manasseh Sogavare has been elected Prime Minister in the Solomon Islands. He got 31 votes out of 50, so he had the 27 he claimed + four additional independents.

He has a lot of economic credentials on paper as former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Commissioner of Inland Revenue, Director of the Central Bank and Chairman of the Solomon Islands National Provident Fund, but he hasn't really delivered the two previous times he got the chance.

[politicus]

The smallest sovereign nation state in the Americas St. Kitts and Nevis in the Caribean will be holding a general election on February 16.

There are 52,000 inhabitants - 40,000 on St Kitts and 12,000 on Nevis, which has autonomy and their own government (led by a Prime Minister!).

The National Assembly consists of 15 MPs, 11 elected by FPTP + 3 appointed Senators and the AG as an ex officio member.

8 of the constituencies are located on St. Kitts, 3 on Nevis, which has its own party system with two local parties holding the seats.

Prime Minister Denzil Douglass (62) leads the trade union based and Social Democratic St. Kitts and Nevis Labour Party (Labour), which won 6 of the 8 St. Kitts seats and 47.0% last time. His main rival the Conservative People's Action Movement (PAM) got 32.2% and won the remaining 2 St. Kitts constituencies. Two of the Labour MPs Dr Timothy Harris  and Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Sam Condor were sacked from the Cabinet in 2013 and formed the People's Labour Party (PLP), which will challenge Douglass from the left. Former PAM members have founded the National Integrity Party (NIP), which will also contest the election (not sure how many candidates they will field).

Two Nevis based parties shared the rest - the Concerned Citizens' Movement (CCM) won 11% and 2 seats, while the Nevis Reformation Party (NRP) got 9.8% and 1 seat (the northern half of Nevis). Not sure what the difference is between CCM and NRP. NRP was founded in 1970 and CCM was created in 1987 by West Indies cricketer Vance Armory to challenge them. Armory became PM of Nevis 1992-2006 and regained that position in 2013. Both parties seem to be non-ideological. NRP is led by Joseph Parry, who was president of the Nevis Cricket Association for ten years, so a love of the game seems to be a prerequisite for succeeding in Nevis politics.


Constituencies:

 
(older map showing the 2004 result, but boundaries and seat allocation basically unchanged - PAM won 1 seat from Labour in 2010)

Parishes:

[politicus]

Harris and Condor left over an attempt by the PM to increase the number of senators from three to six and the PMs blocking of the oppositions attempt to bring a motion of no confidence to a vote. Plus a controversial land swap, where the debt of local communities would be cancelled by swapping it with land to be taking over by the National Bank (and resold to rich foreigners).

St. Kitts & Nevis has experienced negative growth in the last five years and the unemployment rate is nearly 25%.

[politicus]

Polls are closed.

The opposition has been united in Team Unity under Harris and has not fielded candidates against each other. So for the first time since he became PM in 1995 Douglass has met a real threat.

Three parties contesting the eight seats on St Kitts: SKNLP with 8 candidates, People’s Action Movement (PAM) with 6 candidates and the People’s Labour Party (PLP) with two candidates.

Two parties are fighting for the three seats on Nevis, each putting up three candidates: Concerned Citizen’s Movement (CCM) and the Nevis Reformation Party (NRP).

On 31 January PAM, PLP) and CCM signed an agreement to stand on a joint manifesto under the banner Team Unity as an anti-Denzil Douglas grouping. Team Unity is led by former Deputy Prime Minister Dr. Timothy Harris (PLP) with Shawn K. Richards (PAM) as deputy leader.

(so almost Sri Lanka style with the nominally leftist, but authoritarian PM/Presidents close ally jumping ship and teaming up with the conservative opposition to prevent corruption and undemocratic tendencies.

The SKNLP on Thursday announced that it had entered into a formal cooperation agreement with the Nevis Reformation Party. Creating two distinct blocs and only two candidates in all constituencies.

Unity has presented the first real threat to Douglas since he became prime minister in 1995 (longest serving PM in the Americas).

On Thursday the London-based Privy Council (the island’s highest court) ruled that the polls had to be held using the old electoral list as well as the existing constituency boundaries because there was too much manipulation with both things.

There have been a number of irregularities. Teams from the Organisation of American States (OAS) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) are  monitoring the process.

[politicus]

Observer (local newspaper) prognosis:

PLP are running in Constituency 7 and 3 and has a decent shot at both of them given that both their candidates are heavyweights.

Labour will likely retain Constituency 6, while PAM will most likely hold on to Constituency 5 for a third consecutive election.

The remaing four St. Kitts seats are considered marginal. In Constituencies 1 and 2, Labour Cabinet ministers are contesting against two PAM newcomers. In Constituency 4 Labour barely edged out PAM last election and in 8 Labour is running a new candidate versus a one-term and relatively anonymous PAM MP.

CCM has a decent shot at a clean sweep of the three Nevis seats.

[politicus]

Election news on Channel 5 (should have started now, but not on yet)

http://zizonline.com/tv/channel-5/

[politicus]

One of the more controversial things Douglass has done is his Citizenship for Investment program offering St. Kitts passports to various bad guys and thereby providing them with access to other Commonwealth countries.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/01/09/in_st_kitts_passport_sales_lead_to_escalating_political_drama.html

Also, he once stated that "I can incite" and there is a fear he might do that if defeated. But lets hope the mini-Sri Lanka parallel holds up there as well.

[politicus]

News and results:

http://www.sknvibes.com/elections/iReport.cfm

[politicus]

The announcement of election results was halted this morning without explanation, but with a promise that the final results should be announced at non - but this did not happen.

Preliminary results showed the opposition Team Unity leading by a solid margin in most constituencies and their supporters have taken to the streets demanding PM Denzil Douglass resigns.

[politicus]

Preliminary results:

1: Won by newcomer Ian "Patches" Liburd of PAM over Deputy Prime Minister Assim Martin
2: Won by Health Minister Marcella Liburd of Labour with 1775-1643 over PAM newcomer Jonel Powell
3: Won by Konris Maynard of Labour over Sam Condor (PLP)
4: Won by former PAM leader Lindsay Grant over Sports Minister Glen Philip 
5: No results revealed, but talliers have indicated a blowout win for PAM’s leader Shawn Richards
6: Won by PM Denzil Douglas (Labour)
7: Dr. Timothy Harris of PLP was leading by a huge margin
8: Eugene Hamilton of PAM was leading by a huge margin

Nevis:

9: Mark Brantley of CCM was leading by a wide margin with one box left to be announced
10: Won by Nevis PM Vance Amory of CCM 754-306 over NRP newcomer Corey Tyson
11: Patrice Nisbett of NRP was leading by a comfortable margin

So:

Team Unity (7):
PAM 4, PLP 1, CCM 2

Labour (3)
NRP (1)


Besides their nortern stronghold Labour kept the capitol region and NRP regained northern Nevis.

Hopefully there will be no last ditch attempt to change the results.

[politicus]

"Free At Last
Free At Last
Thank God We Are Free
At Last From The Hands
Of Denzil And
Dem Jack Ass!!!"

(PAM supporter placard)

http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/topstory-Opposition-claims-victory-in-St-Kitts-Nevis-general-election-24850.html

Anyone else who thinks that "Denzil and Dem Jackass" would be a fine band name?

[politicus]

Douglas has conceded and Timothy Harris is Prime Minister-elect. Supervisor of Elections Wingrove George confirms that the distribution between Team Unity and the government supporters is 7-4, but no numbers have been released yet (and no official seat distribution, but it should be certain to be the above).

http://www.caribbeanelections.com/blog/?p=4598&

Harris will be totally dependent on PAM. If Sam Condor had been elected and CCM had got all three on Nevis he would have had a bit more leverage.

[Simfan34]

I see.

[politicus]

On September 7 the first female PM of Trinidad Kamla Persad-Bissessar (UNC) and her People's Partnership coalition - consisting of two Social Democratic parties dominated by Indo-Trinidians and an autonomist Tobagon party - will be facing off against the Social Liberal and Afro-Trinidian People's National Movement, which has dominated Trinidian politics since the mid 50s. The opposition also includes  the Independent Liberal Party founded by former FIFA Vice President and UNC chairman Jack Warner when he was kicked out of the UNC in 2013. Warner is currently facing extradition to the US over corruption charges.

The government has brough rampant crime under control, reduced unemployment to 3,5% and improved infrastructure, so in many ways successful, but has by all accounts also been fairly corrupt. The Tobago Organisation of the People was wiped out by the PNM in the 2013 Tobagon election, where it got no seats in their House of Assembly and may face a similar fate this time. The government has passed a last ditch "presents for everybody" budget in order to bribe enough voters.
   
41 seats in the National Assembly to be elected using FPTP. In a controversial new move there will be a run-off poll in constituencies where the winner doesntt get 50%+ of the votes.


People's Partnership Coalition

United National Congress (UNC), Social Democratic and mainly Indo-Trinidian (19).

Congress of the People (COP) (6), Social Democratic and mainly Indo-Trinidian, split from the UNC in 2006 because they thought the then PM was too corrupt and authoritarian.

Tobago Organisation of the People (TOP) (2), Autonomist and Afro-Trinidian.


Opposition

National Movement (PNM) (13), Social Liberal and Afro-Trinidian. Founded by Father of the Nation and eminent historian Eric Williams. In power 1956-86, 1991-95, 2001-2010 and still seen as the natural party of government by many.

Independent Liberal Party (ILP) (1), the party founded by Jack Warner. Mostly a one man band (which may stop playing soon).

Movement for Social Justice (MSJ) (0), left wing, was part of People's Partnership in 2010.

[politicus]

The 2010 map:



And 2007 for a PNM win to illustrate where the swing areas are:

[politicus]

Ethnic balance:



Mixed race include people with varying degrees of Amerindian blood. 7.7% are Mixed African/Indian (Dougla). Mixed race people are the swing vote.

Indians split about evenly between Christians and Hindus/Muslims. A few are both Hindu and Christian. The PM considers herself both Hindu and Baptist.