Moldova parliamentary election - November 30, 2014

[politicus]

OK, last of this years national election threads - apart from the Turkmenistan electoral type event at Christmas...

The small dirt poor Romanian (err... "Moldovan") speaking former Soviet Republic Moldova is electing a new parliament on November 30.

101 seats will be distributed using the party list form of PR with the whole country as one big constituency.
They have a high 6% threshold (and an even higher for alliances on 9 or 11%), which means just four parties got in last time, but due to party splits two more are represented now. Independents need 2% to get in, so double the price per seat for a party.

Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) is led by veteran Vladimir Voronin (73), who was President 2001-09. In principle they are unreformed communists, but is split between a dominant pragmatic wing and a Marxist left wing. It is pro-Russian and anti-EU. A large part of its voting bloc are ethnic minorities and ethnic Moldovans identifying as non-Romanian since the party is promoting a separate Moldovan nation building project and is strongly anti-unification with Romania. It was ousted by an opposition alliance of four parties in 2009. The Communists got 42 seats in the 2010 election, but 4 have since defected, so they are down to 38.

The Pro-European Coalition was formed between three governing centre-right and centrist parties in 2013 after a split in the Liberal Party had broken the previous Alliance for European Integration:

Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova is led by former businessman Vlad Filat (45), who was previously an MP for the Democrats 1997-2007. He was Prime Minister 2009-2013 until he had to resign after allegations of corruption, abuse of power and influence peddling and replaced by Foreign Minister and career diplomat Iurie Leancă (51). It is a Conservative party and the leading force in the governing three party Pro-European Coalition. It has 32 seats in parliament.

Democratic Party of Moldova is officially a Social Democratic party formed in 1997 by defectors from 3 agrarian and leftist parties, but is pro-austerity and privatization. Seems like complet tools. It is led by economist and former Communist minister Marian Lupu (48) who joined them in 2009 and has 15 seats.

Liberal Reformist Party is a classically liberal party formed by members of a reform group in the Liberal Party after they were ejected by the party. Has 7 seats, but has been well below the threshold in all polls but one outlier (5,9%).

Others

Liberal Party is a populist Conservative (formerly Christian Democratic) party that was formed in 1993. Their economically libertarian wing was ejected in 2013 and founded the Liberal Reformist Party, which stayed in the government. The more populist, anti-austerity wing kept the party name, but had to leave the ruling coalition. It has 5 seats left of the 12 they won in 2010.

Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova is a leftist Russian minority party, which ran on the Communist list in 2010, but were reestablished in 2011 and now has 4 seats in parliament. They are well below the threshold in most polls.

No less than 35 other parties are running, but none of them have a chance.

[Famous Mortimer]

While the Party of Communists style themselves as the successors of the CPSU, there is no official link. Most of the higher up Soviet officials formed a group called the Agrarian Democratic Party. The Party of Communists were originally irrelevant nostalgists. They didn't even contest the first free parliamentary elections in 1994. After one term of capitalism though, voters awarded them a victory based pretty much just on their name.

The Democratic Party of Moldova is a similar case. It never won any seats running on its own and wasn't taken seriously at all until the second parliamentary elections of 2009, when Communist MP Marian Lupu defected and took them over. He chose the Democratic Party of Molvoda rather than any other party (or forming a new one) simply because it had the most marketable name.

[politicus]

Five elements that will be influenced by the election: relationship to EU, Transnistria, investment climate, level of corruption and intra-party dynamics:

http://globalriskinsights.com/2014/06/5-events-to-watch-before-moldovas-2014-elections/

Basically the general elections will be a clash for the country’s direction between the current pro-European government and PCRM, who wants Moldova to be oriented more towards Russia.

Public opinion in Moldova has generally been leaning pro-European, but this might have shifted with the impact of Russian sanctions. The country’s economic dependence on Russia is significant, since Russia is its biggest export market and Moldovan migrant workers with jobs in Russia is an important source of income.

PCRM will attack the fragile government coalition of pro-European centre-right parties on their austerity measures and reforms and the government’s incapability to fight corruption. The anti-austerity Liberals will do this as well.

[politicus]

An Appeal Court in Chișinău has approved the decision of the Central Electoral Commission to remove the Russian nationalist Patria party, led by Renato Usatâi, from the lists both because the party received money from Russia and because of "the extremist activities promoted by several party members."

http://www.moldova.org/a-pro-russian-party-was-removed-from-the-parliamentary-elections-in-moldova/

The police says Russian nationalists (many connected to Patria) had planned violent riots  after the election:

http://www.moldova.org/extremists-were-preparing-for-violent-riots-after-the-elections-in-moldova/

[CatoMinor]

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Is any party in Moldova even in favor of unification?

[politicus]

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Is any party in Moldova even in favor of unification?

Not officially, but you can find politicians from the pro-Western parties that are pro-unification privately. The issue keeps popping up from time to time and the Black Sea University Foundation has just released a report, that shows it would lead to economic growth.

http://www.moldova.org/the-foundation-of-the-black-sea-the-reunification-between-romania-and-moldova-will-cause-economic-growth/

EDIT: Romania's GDP per capita is five times higher than Moldova's - Moldova really is a backwater.

[Famous Mortimer]

Banning of Patria probably helps the pro-Russian side since they were polling below the threshold. Now those votes that would have been wasted will probably consolidate behind the Communists and/or Socialists.

[Famous Mortimer]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is any party in Moldova even in favor of unification?

Former acting President Mihai Ghimpu, leader of the Liberal Party, was first elected to parliament as a member of the pro-unification Popular Front (indeed, his brother was actually leader of the Popular Front). I don't think he volunteers an explicit position these days but he does still maintain the language spoken in Moldova is Romanian, which, you know, read between the lines.

The Popular Front itself became the Christian Democratic Popular Party, which had seats in the last decade and has polled above 1% in a couple of polls this campaign.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, this is just one of the best results websites I've ever seen:

http://www.parties.e-democracy.md/en/parties/pdm/

It's out of date though so it's only good for old elections. I'm really hoping it gets updated though.

[Beagle]

And so, in the best 'second time as a farce' tradition, the photos posted on twitter are of the humongous lines for the polling stations in Moscow. And in the best Putin troll tradition, the photos posted online have been taken on the day prior to the election. I wonder if suddenly a lot of the Crimean pro-Russian activists have gotten an urge to participate in the Moldovan electoral process as well.

Anyway, turnout at this point is 2 points down compared to 2010, but it's still way above the 30% needed for the elections to be valid. No serious exit poll leaks, as far as I can tell.

[Beagle]

OK, turns out the reason for the lack of exit poll leaks is the lack of exit polls. They're not illegal or anything, it's just that nobody would pay for one.

Instead we get the first official results with 14% in:

Turnout ~ 55%

PCRM - 21,49%
PLDM - 16,75%
PL - 4,84 %
PD - 16,8%
PCR - 6,71%
PSRM - 22,72%
Blocul Uniunea Vamală - 4,55% (who are those?)
PLR - 1,25%

Obviously there results come from the pro-russian areas, but it still points to a somewhat stronger than expected result for the socialists, who will probably displace the commies as the leading pro-russian party.

I don't know if my understanding is correct, but it seems that while the Communists are pro-Russian in general, the Socialists are going all in for the Putin personality cult.

[Beagle]

40.5% in, but with no indication on the areas still out, it's impossible to say who has won:

PSRM - 22,8%
PCRM - 19,2%
PLDM - 17,8%
PD - 16,5%
PCR - 5,7%
PL - 6,9%

(threshold is 5% and there are ~25 parties below it)

[Nhoj]

Voronin and co could probably be said to be like yanukovych pro russian but also interested in getting stuff from the EU.

[Beagle]

Oh, the PCR is the Communist Party of Reformers. Electoral slogan is "Against everyone who's been in power! Vote for the young team of reformers!". Program is absolute pie in the sky stuff*, but they seem to be natural junior partners in a Pro-Eurasian coaltion. That's if they get in, because as more votes come in from the pro-Western areas, they may yet fall below the threshold.

* Favorite bit of the program: "We'll provide every guest worker that comes back home the income he or she had abroad."

[Famous Mortimer]

Voronin and co could probably be said to be like yanukovych pro russian but also interested in getting stuff from the EU.

Yes, very accurate comparison. Even in previous elections they tried to present themselves as pro-European and the opposition as full of Russian moles. Still, if push came to shove and they HAD to pick a side, they would probably side with Russia, like Yanukovych.

Of course, one way they're much better than Yanukovych, they never killed anybody and there have never been believable allegations of vote rigging against them.

[Beagle]

Sorry, I misread something - threshold is indeed 6% (and higher for coalitions). This means that the PCR is certainly out, as they have been falling throughout. And with that, with 52.19% of the vote in, the pro-Europeans are ahead for the first time in the provisional seat count:


PSRM – 26
PCRM – 23
PLDM – 21
PDM – 20
PL – 11

[politicus]

Sorry, I misread something - threshold is indeed 6% (and higher for coalitions). This means that the PCR is certainly out, as they have been falling throughout. And with that, with 52.19% of the vote in, the pro-Europeans are ahead for the first time in the provisional seat count:


PSRM – 26
PCRM – 23
PLDM – 21
PDM – 20
PL – 11

The thresholds: 6% for one party, 9% for two party alliances and 11% for three party alliances are mentioned in my OP.

[Beagle]

The thresholds: 6% for one party, 9% for two party alliances and 11% for three party alliances are mentioned in my OP.

Yep, hence the "indeed".

In other news, since the site of the electoral commission has been down for almost everybody, a live stream of the main live results page has been set up. With 66% in, it's showing:

PSRM: 21.93%
PLDM: 18.79%
PCRM: 18.35%
PDM: 16.12%
PL: 8.65%

You can see the vote for the Eurasian coalition falling almost in real time. At least according to one report I've read, it's virtually certain that the PSRM will finish first, but that PLDM will be second and that, provided they can keep the PL in line, the Pro-European coalition will have about between 53 and 56 of the 101 seats.

[Beagle]

77.52% in - but that's only just above 70% of the actual votes, since the outstanding precincts are those where the turnout has been highest.

In any case, the margin for the pro-European coalition should only increase in the late returns, so we know who won. The current seat count, which should be accurate ± 3:
PSRM - 26 seats
PLDM - 23 seats
PCRM - 21 seats
PD - 19 seats
PL - 12 seats

What's interesting is the number of invalid votes. Because of the late exclusion of the Patria party, they were on the ballot papers, but with a stamp saying "withdrawn" where the voter would mark their preference. The invalid votes are not only people who would cast an invalid Patria vote, of course, but even if we take every invalid vote and add it to the pro-Eurasian camp, they would still lose and Patria would not have made it in Parliament.

[Famous Mortimer]

Banning Patria probably increased their standing.

They were an irrelevant minor party that got banned for legitimate fraud but they were able to drum it up as they were being oppressed by the pro-Western government.

Patria was never Russia's choice, it was merely the party of a guy who happens to have ties to Russia.

[petr sokol]

Unieua Vamala = Customs union (means with Russia) - a pro russian party with full name "Moldovas Choice-Customs Union"

[politicus]

Unieua Vamala = Customs union (means with Russia) - a pro russian party with full name "Moldovas Choise-Customs Union"

What about them?

[Famous Mortimer]

Beagle asked who they were.

[Famous Mortimer]

Apparently there's talk of a "grand coalition" between the 3 pro-Euro parties and the Communists, now that the Communists are relative moderates.

[politicus]

93,9% counted, alomost there..

Party of Socialists 313,832 21.2%       
Liberal Democratic Party 289,206 19.6%       
Party of Communists    264,749 17.9%       
Democratic Party of Moldova 233,337 15.8%       
Liberal Party 139,980  9.5%       
Communist Reformist Party 73,928 5.0%

Everyone else far below the threshold