Moldova parliamentary election - November 30, 2014

[Zuza]

Oh, the PCR is the Communist Party of Reformers. Electoral slogan is "Against everyone who's been in power! Vote for the young team of reformers!". Program is absolute pie in the sky stuff*, but they seem to be natural junior partners in a Pro-Eurasian coaltion. That's if they get in, because as more votes come in from the pro-Western areas, they may yet fall below the threshold.

* Favorite bit of the program: "We'll provide every guest worker that comes back home the income he or she had abroad."

They also proposed (not in the program you mentioned, but according to this test) to solve Transnistrian conflict by transforming Moldova into a federation of 4 entities (Chisinau, Moldova, Gagauzia and Transnistria) and state support for Orthodox Christianity (though the latter is not especially surprising for post-Soviet "communists"). Interestingly enough, this test also shows that they are neither pro-Russian nor pro-European (against recognition of Russian language as official and against joining EU, NATO or the Customs Union). I have no idea how their typical voter look like and how this previously virtually unknown party managed to get so many votes (maybe people confused them with Voronin's PCRM?). Another surprising result (besides, of course, PSRM, which seem to draw off many PCRM voters) is that of Liberal Reformist Party, which was close to 6% threshold according to some pre-election polls but in the election received only 1.5 %.

[Zuza]

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Is any party in Moldova even in favor of unification?

Former acting President Mihai Ghimpu, leader of the Liberal Party, was first elected to parliament as a member of the pro-unification Popular Front (indeed, his brother was actually leader of the Popular Front). I don't think he volunteers an explicit position these days but he does still maintain the language spoken in Moldova is Romanian, which, you know, read between the lines.

The Popular Front itself became the Christian Democratic Popular Party, which had seats in the last decade and has polled above 1% in a couple of polls this campaign.

In the electoral test I referred to above representative of the Liberal Party explicitly supported unification, while both Communist parties, PSRM, Patria, PDM and (surprisingly) the Christian Democratic People's Party opposed it (PLDM and PLR didn't express their opinion, and I didn't count various tiny irrelevant parties and candidates who also gave their answers). But, anyway, it won't be an issue in the foreseeable future...

[politicus]

anyway, it won't be an issue in the foreseeable future...

In that case it will likely be never. As the study from the Black Sea University Foundation shows it is still possible now with a GDP per capita difference of 5:1 to do it and would lead to economic growth, but it gets increasingly harder as Moldova slides further and further behind the economic development in Romania.

[Famous Mortimer]

Oh, the PCR is the Communist Party of Reformers. Electoral slogan is "Against everyone who's been in power! Vote for the young team of reformers!". Program is absolute pie in the sky stuff*, but they seem to be natural junior partners in a Pro-Eurasian coaltion. That's if they get in, because as more votes come in from the pro-Western areas, they may yet fall below the threshold.

* Favorite bit of the program: "We'll provide every guest worker that comes back home the income he or she had abroad."

They also proposed (not in the program you mentioned, but according to this test) to solve Transnistrian conflict by transforming Moldova into a federation of 4 entities (Chisinau, Moldova, Gagauzia and Transnistria) and state support for Orthodox Christianity (though the latter is not especially surprising for post-Soviet "communists"). Interestingly enough, this test also shows that they are neither pro-Russian nor pro-European (against recognition of Russian language as official and against joining EU, NATO or the Customs Union). I have no idea how their typical voter look like and how this previously virtually unknown party managed to get so many votes (maybe people confused them with Voronin's PCRM?). Another surprising result (besides, of course, PSRM, which seem to draw off many PCRM voters) is that of Liberal Reformist Party, which was close to 6% threshold according to some pre-election polls but in the election received only 1.5 %.

I wonder if people confused it with the Revival Party, a PCRM splinter group including former PM Vasile Tarlev. The Revival Party itself only got a quarter of a percentage. They seem like they should be much more high profile.

[Famous Mortimer]

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Is any party in Moldova even in favor of unification?

Former acting President Mihai Ghimpu, leader of the Liberal Party, was first elected to parliament as a member of the pro-unification Popular Front (indeed, his brother was actually leader of the Popular Front). I don't think he volunteers an explicit position these days but he does still maintain the language spoken in Moldova is Romanian, which, you know, read between the lines.

The Popular Front itself became the Christian Democratic Popular Party, which had seats in the last decade and has polled above 1% in a couple of polls this campaign.

In the electoral test I referred to above representative of the Liberal Party explicitly supported unification, while both Communist parties, PSRM, Patria, PDM and (surprisingly) the Christian Democratic People's Party opposed it (PLDM and PLR didn't express their opinion, and I didn't count various tiny irrelevant parties and candidates who also gave their answers). But, anyway, it won't be an issue in the foreseeable future...

According to Wikipedia, the CDPP is actually now a satellite of the Communists. Weird.

[politicus]

Final result:

Party of Socialists 20.5% 25 (+21)   
Liberal Democratic Party 20.2% 23 (-9)   
Party of Communists  17.5% 21 (-17)   
Democratic Party of Moldova  15.8% 19 (+4)   
Liberal Party 9.7% 13 (+8)

Below threshold
      
Communist Reformist Party 4.9%
'Moldova's Choice - Customs Union' Electoral Bloc 3.5%   
Liberal Reformist Party  1,6% (-7)


A 55/46 majority to the "liberal" pro-Western bloc.

http://www.alegeri.md/en/

Turnout was 55.9%

[resadist]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is any party in Moldova even in favor of unification?

Former acting President Mihai Ghimpu, leader of the Liberal Party, was first elected to parliament as a member of the pro-unification Popular Front (indeed, his brother was actually leader of the Popular Front). I don't think he volunteers an explicit position these days but he does still maintain the language spoken in Moldova is Romanian, which, you know, read between the lines.

The Popular Front itself became the Christian Democratic Popular Party, which had seats in the last decade and has polled above 1% in a couple of polls this campaign.

In the electoral test I referred to above representative of the Liberal Party explicitly supported unification, while both Communist parties, PSRM, Patria, PDM and (surprisingly) the Christian Democratic People's Party opposed it (PLDM and PLR didn't express their opinion, and I didn't count various tiny irrelevant parties and candidates who also gave their answers). But, anyway, it won't be an issue in the foreseeable future...

According to Wikipedia, the CDPP is actually now a satellite of the Communists. Weird.

CDPP leader Iurie Rosca supported the communists when they were in power after 2009 because of this betraying of the party's values (Pro Europe Pro NATO) the CDPP lost all seats.
Afterwards Rosca became a disciple of Alexandr Dugin, and returned on a tradtionalist, isolationist platform.

[Famous Mortimer]

So this election will probably just result in the 3 pro-EU parties forming a government, since they have 55 seats out of 101.

Just for shyts and giggles though, let's discuss some other options.

1) Why is everyone just assuming the Liberal Party will be on board with another coalition? They left the coalition before after all, with only the rump Liberal Reformist Party remaining behind. If the Liberals do indeed choose to stay out, the Communists could get brought in to replace them.

2) Alternatively both the Communists and the Liberals could be brought in to form a Cordon sanitaire around the Socialists.

3) The Socialists, the Communists, and the Democratic Party, all nominally left-wing parties with recent Communist pasts have a majority between them.

[politicus]

So this election will probably just result in the 3 pro-EU parties forming a government, since they have 55 seats out of 101.

Just for shyts and giggles though, let's discuss some other options.

1) Why is everyone just assuming the Liberal Party will be on board with another coalition? They left the coalition before after all, with only the rump Liberal Reformist Party remaining behind. If the Liberals do indeed choose to stay out, the Communists could get brought in to replace them.

It was a pretty clear thrashing of the austerity parties with the Liberal Reformists getting annihilated and the LibDem losing 9. The Democrats picked up 4, but they are the most "moderate" of the austerity parties and its a net loss of 12 seats for the austerity-coalition.

Anti-Western/anti-austerrity gained 4

The pro-Western, anti-austerity Liberals gained 8

So the austerity parties are in the minority now..

Democrats/Liberals/Communists have 53 - anti-austerity moderates + soft austerity - in theory they could make a compromise and form a centrist "across the aisle" coalition.

Anyway, the Liberals are big winners and in a key position and I agree that the commentators are lazy when they assume they will just (re)join the two austerity parties. It will at least take some tough negotiations.

[Famous Mortimer]

Weird.

You may remember that because of how divided Moldova is and because parliament elects their president, the country went without a president for about 3 years, during which the leaders of the 3 pro-Western parties took turns as acting president.

I'm reading on Wikipedia about the 2012 presidential election, when they finally broke the deadlock and elected a bland technocrat as a compromise candidate. You know how they did it? The Party of Socialists joined with the pro-Western parties.

So maybe the assumption that the Communists are more moderate isn't even right.

Also, Vladimir Voronin made some horrible racist comments about an African immigrant who tried to put himself forward as a presidential candidate.

[politicus]

Looking at the seat distribution from alegri.md for the final result and it looks a bit off. They give the Socialists 25 seats for 20.5% and only 23 seats to the Liberal Democrats for 20.2%...  

[politicus]

As expected the three pro-European parties decided to form a government. A "group of experts" are working on a government program.

http://www.moldova.org/the-moldovan-pro-european-parties-agreed-on-the-majority-in-the-parliament/

[Beagle]

Sorry to bump this, but it's interesting to me at least that the government formation took the better part of 3 months. The three pro-european parties did not end up forming a government together, so the new Moldovan prime minister is a certain Mr. Chiril Gaburici (LDP) - a 38 year old "unaffiliated" "techocrat".

The new government has the support of the LDP, the communists and the democrats.

Predictable, but depressing nonetheless...

[politicus]

Sorry to bump this, but it's interesting to me at least that the government formation took the better part of 3 months. The three pro-european parties did not end up forming a government together, so the new Moldovan prime minister is a certain Mr. Chiril Gaburici (LDP) - a 38 year old "unaffiliated" "techocrat".

The new government has the support of the LDP, the communists and the democrats.

Predictable, but depressing nonetheless...

So the two most anti-austerity parties (Socialists and Liberals) are in opposition, while the Communists are backing a technocratic pro-austerity government. Interesting.

[Yeahsayyeah]

CINOs!