SHOCK POLL: ROUNDS' LEAD DOWN TO 3%, PRESSLER SURGING SAYS SUSA
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  SHOCK POLL: ROUNDS' LEAD DOWN TO 3%, PRESSLER SURGING SAYS SUSA
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Author Topic: SHOCK POLL: ROUNDS' LEAD DOWN TO 3%, PRESSLER SURGING SAYS SUSA  (Read 4760 times)
Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #25 on: October 07, 2014, 07:57:37 PM »

"Should Pressler drop out, the race would be a dead heat between Rounds and Weiland, with each major party candidate picking up 47 percent of the vote, according to poll results.

With all three men on the ballot, Rounds is backed by only 55 percent of Republican Party base, according to the survey."

Wow, Rounds really effed this up.
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King
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« Reply #26 on: October 07, 2014, 09:50:56 PM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.
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RI
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« Reply #27 on: October 07, 2014, 09:51:39 PM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?
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King
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2014, 09:52:58 PM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.
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RI
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2014, 10:00:45 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2014, 10:17:20 PM by realisticidealist »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

Perhaps a top-two primary state like CA or WA where the choice would be made for them?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #30 on: October 07, 2014, 10:06:32 PM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

What a coincidence because Weiland isn't dropping out either.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #31 on: October 07, 2014, 10:11:38 PM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

I would actually be most interested in this as a way around gerrymandered districts.  Quietly Dem-backed Indies could be a real threat in all those R+5-8 seats around the country.  And Republicans could have some success backing Indies in VRA districts.
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Miles
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« Reply #32 on: October 07, 2014, 10:13:13 PM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

Yep. I can't say how many articles from LA conservative local outlets insisting that Maness drop out.
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King
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« Reply #33 on: October 07, 2014, 10:22:32 PM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

What a coincidence because Weiland isn't dropping out either.

Yes (because nobody is asking), which is why Rounds will ultimately win here.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #34 on: October 07, 2014, 10:26:29 PM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Semi-successful here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California,_2012#District_33

Successful in these two (if we consider Lieberman the "Republican," even though he didn't caucus with them).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_mayoral_election,_2009
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Connecticut,_2006
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #35 on: October 07, 2014, 10:34:20 PM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Semi-successful here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California,_2012#District_33

Successful in these two (if we consider Lieberman the "Republican," even though he didn't caucus with them).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_mayoral_election,_2009
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Connecticut,_2006
Lieberman doesn't count, he only ran as an independent because he lost the primary, he had no intention of ever caucusing with the republicans. Yes, in '06,'08,'10 there was POLITICO-style hype about him caucusing with the republicans, but it was never taken with great seriousness.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #36 on: October 07, 2014, 11:11:56 PM »

The CT Republican Party actually asked Bush not to endorse their "official" candidate, so it's not dissimilar from the AK/KS/ND races this year.
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« Reply #37 on: October 07, 2014, 11:25:18 PM »

I'm guessing a lot of Pressler's support comes from older conservatives who remember his first stint in the Senate fondly?

It's probably in Democrat's best interest not to go after Pressler too hard. Weiland could theoretically win with about 35% of the vote if Pressler gets above 30%.
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KCDem
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« Reply #38 on: October 07, 2014, 11:38:20 PM »

Rounds will lose.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #39 on: October 08, 2014, 01:10:22 AM »

Democrats (or Dem-leaning Indies) are surging accross the board !

(Well, this is normal for the first 3 weeks of October in which Dems. always poll strongly and then the Republicans catch up in the week before the election).
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« Reply #40 on: October 08, 2014, 01:19:37 AM »

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Semi-successful here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California,_2012#District_33

Successful in these two (if we consider Lieberman the "Republican," even though he didn't caucus with them).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_mayoral_election,_2009
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Connecticut,_2006

None of those are the same. The first is the top 2 system in a liberal area. Bloomberg was the incumbent and first elected as a Republican. Lieberman was an incumbent Democrat who lost a primary.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #41 on: October 08, 2014, 01:20:48 AM »

If both SUSA and PPP (both quality pollsters) show a strong Pressler-surge, I guess the YouGov poll has been outed as a complete joke.
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jfern
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« Reply #42 on: October 08, 2014, 01:21:23 AM »

I'm guessing a lot of Pressler's support comes from older conservatives who remember his first stint in the Senate fondly?

It's probably in Democrat's best interest not to go after Pressler too hard. Weiland could theoretically win with about 35% of the vote if Pressler gets above 30%.

Weiland should go negative on Rounds so that either he or Pressler wins.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #43 on: October 08, 2014, 01:37:52 AM »

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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #44 on: October 08, 2014, 02:01:12 AM »

weiland really needs to drop out. pressler would be an excellent senator.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #45 on: October 08, 2014, 02:11:47 AM »

Honestly both Weiland and Pressler are running as populists to some extent. I'd be happy with either of them in the Senate.

If Pressler is elected, there honestly doesn't seem like there'd be much of a difference of voting record between Tim Johnson and Pressler, and Johnson was a fantastic senator from the view of the Democrats coming from a state that generally gives a 15-20% margin of victory to Republican candidates.
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Zanas
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« Reply #46 on: October 08, 2014, 04:03:35 AM »

Isn't Pressler a former Republican that would be way likelier to caucus with the Republicans than Orman ? I think 538 believes so, at least. I agree that, from a Dem POV, a Pressler win is better than a Rounds win, but 35-32-28 is a point when you still give it all the shots you have and not just say "it's over, I'll just go and let the other guy win this".
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #47 on: October 08, 2014, 04:53:07 AM »

Dedpite conservative leanings, King praised him during his tenure as Senate GOPer. They will decide control. But hopefully, we will have enough of our own seats to guare.tee a majority with a Grimes and Begich victory.s
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Miles
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« Reply #48 on: October 08, 2014, 02:13:23 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2014, 02:15:54 PM by Miles »

Democrats are going down this rabbit hole: DSCC dropping $1M here.

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #49 on: October 08, 2014, 02:17:18 PM »

Democrats are going down this rabbit hole: DSCC dropping $1M here.

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Thank goodness. Nuke Mike Rounds, run a couple of positive ads for Weiland, and let the chips fall where they may.
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