Biggest flop candidate this election cycle?

[IceSpear]

I'm going with Rounds.

- Popular former governor
- Initially ahead by 20 points
- Running against a some dude
- Democrats basically completely abandoned the race from the start
- Has a pitiful primary performance, getting under 60%
- Gradually sinks further and further down, and the race possibly could be a toss up now, pending confirmation from other pollsters

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's compare how each race has changed over time:

State|Best Historic Rating for originally favored candidate|My rating Now

IA|Likely D|Toss-Up/Tilt R (moved down 3 categories (went through Lean D and Toss-Up/Tilt D))
KS|Safe R|Lean I (moved down 5 categories)
SD|Likely R|Lean R (moved down 1 category)
and for the heck of it...
MI|Toss-Up/Tilt R|Safe D (moved down 4 categories)

So, the award goes to Mr. Roberts!

[Lief 🗽]

Roberts. Braley and especially Rounds still have a chance at winning, at least.

[Eraserhead]

I didn't really see the Rounds meltdown coming. Shocking stuff.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Write in Tillis. Roberts is more.likely to lose.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A raft of hyped up GOP primary challenges that went nowhere. Liz Cheney's spectacular collapse comes to mind.

[dmmidmi]

Gotta go with Roberts.

Kansas has sent Republicans to the Senate in all but five elections ever. His re-election should have been automatic. Instead, he's about a 2:1 underdog.

[windjammer]

Gotta go with Roberts.

Kansas has sent Republicans to the Senate in all but five elections ever. His re-election should have been automatic. Instead, he's about a 2:1 underdog.

I would say Rounds I guess.

(and please, see your PMs )

[Maistre]

Rounds being on this list makes no sense, because he will win.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rounds being on this list makes no sense, because he will win.

Perhaps, but he looked a lot better 3 months ago than he does now.

[IceSpear]

Rounds being on this list makes no sense, because he will win.

Even if he wins it would be despite being a spectacular failure as a candidate. Nobody said losing was a requirement.

[Vega]

It's between Braley and Rounds, both have really f'd things up in their should-be likely D and R seats respectively.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Braley. Totally is [in the process of] blowing a likely D seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ed FitzGerald

[IceSpear]

Ed FitzGerald

Obviously he'd win any poll, that's why I said Senate candidates only.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ed FitzGerald

Obviously he'd win any poll, that's why I said Senate candidates only.

Whoops, lol   In that case, Pat Roberts.

[Maxwell]

I'm gonna go with Pat Roberts.

Terri Lynn Land is better than all of them but she wins the biggest "paper tiger" award because she was thought of as a good candidate, and admittedly, I took the bait early on.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm gonna go with Pat Roberts.

Terri Lynn Land is better than all of them but she wins the biggest "paper tiger" award because she was thought of as a good candidate, and admittedly, I took the bait early on.

By whom?

OP: Roberts.

[Potus]

Biggest Flop: Terri Land. The average spectator misconstrued her electoral record as Secretary of State. We weren't going to pick up Michigan but somehow the Land campaign got National Republicans to spend millions on a worthless endeavor.

Runner-Up: Natalie Tennant. She is basically Terri 2.0 with her being a supposedly popular statewide official. Natalie was the Democratic Party's best hope at holding Rocky's seat, and now she's starting a 20-30 point defeat in the face.

[Flake]

Some of you are placing too much trust into the Rounds+3 poll, there's a really high chance that the poll is just an outlier.

Obviously the answer is Roberts out of those listed, nobody expected the race to be remotely close until a month ago, and he nearly lost his primary to a tea party doctor.

[morgieb]

Roberts for mine. Rounds is embarrassing, but he'll still probably win (therefore not quite a complete flop), Braley's race was at least kinda competitive and I'd argue his chances of a comeback are better than Roberts's.

[IceSpear]

Some of you are placing too much trust into the Rounds+3 poll, there's a really high chance that the poll is just an outlier.

Obviously the answer is Roberts out of those listed, nobody expected the race to be remotely close until a month ago, and he nearly lost his primary to a tea party doctor.

It definitely could be. Regardless though, Rounds' collapse over the past year has been pretty clear. The only thing saving him is that it's a three way race.

[tmthforu94]

Torn between Braley and Rounds.

I'm not going with Roberts, because while he was originally favored to win, his approvals have always been murky and no one would have suspected that his ultimate opponent would be a wealthy Independent - he would have been considered vulnerable from Day 1 had that been known.

Rounds has consistently polled weak, and like Roberts, is in a race people would not have originally suspected. He's also still favored to win, so it's hard to consider a winning candidate "a flop."

Thus, I'm going to go with Braley. This race was considered favored for the Democrats the second Latham passed and Braley jumped in. He gave up a moderate lead despite having a very conservative opponent who has made a couple gaffes. He is also the one of these three that I think is most likely to lose on Election Day.

[Orser67]

All three have disappointed, but I'll go with the incumbent whose likely to lose (Roberts) rather than the incumbent whose likely to win (Rounds) and the non-incumbent who looks like a slight underdog (Braley).

John Walsh, Liz Cheney, and Chris McDaniel are bigger flops than any of the three poll options, though.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

remember when Monica Wehby was the great Republican hope in Oregon?