FiveThirtyEight on South Dakota

[JRP1994]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-whats-the-matter-with-south-dakota/

"Yet another complication is that Pressler has refused to say who he’ll caucus with. Our ideology ratings imply that he’s equivalent to a moderate Republican — just as they imply that Orman is equivalent to a moderate Democrat. So the model assumes there’s a 75 percent chance Pressler would caucus with Republicans if he wins, just as it assumes there’s a 75 percent chance Orman would caucus with Democrats. But Pressler endorsed Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and has at times implied that he’d refuse to caucus with anybody.

Rounds remains the favorite. It’s not clear that Pressler has enough money to run a substantial number of advertisements in the closing days of the campaign — or to finance a voter turnout operation. And for the time being, the SurveyUSA poll is mostly alone."

[Free Bird]

I like Pressler, and I have a feeling he will caucus with the GOP if Rounds eats a baby and he wins.

[Gass3268]

I like Pressler, and I have a feeling he will caucus with the GOP if Rounds eats a baby and he wins.

Why do you think that Pressler would caucus with the Republicans?

Pressler actually seems super liberal. He strongly supports the Affordable Care Act (more than many Democrats seem to!), supports background checks for gun purchases, supports immigration reform including a path to citizenship, supports a constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United, wants to build a memorial museum for the "Indian Holocaust" (!!!), supports gay marriage, and supports net neutrality!

Holy sh[inks] this guy is more left-wing than half the Democratic Senate caucus.

Plus he enthusiastically endorsed Obama both times.

[Miles]

And for the time being, the SurveyUSA poll is mostly alone."

Yes, but the trend for Rounds has not been good. He's gone from 44% to 39% to 35% over the last three SUSA polls.

He's probably near (or at) his floor, but yeah, I would like to see another poll confirm this.

[Free Bird]

I like Pressler, and I have a feeling he will caucus with the GOP if Rounds eats a baby and he wins.

Why do you think that Pressler would caucus with the Republicans?

For one, the deeply conservative people of SD would the ones who elected him, so in that sense he owes them. Second, he still seems right-of-center, despite a few moderate positions. If he didn't differ, he wouldn't be an Indie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Despite his conservative leanings, he is fruends with King, they will decide control of senate.

[eric82oslo]

Larry Pressler on MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.com/up/watch/could-south-dakota-upend-fight-for-senate--329028675664

[Joe Republic]

Is it too late for Weiland to pull a Chad Taylor?  Or if he can't pull his name off the ballot, just end his campaign and endorse Pressler anyway?

[Eraserhead]

Is it too late for Weiland to pull a Chad Taylor?  Or if he can't pull his name off the ballot, just end his campaign and endorse Pressler anyway?

It's too late for him to get off of the ballot. He could of course end his campaign and endorse Pressler but I don't think there's really much chance of that happening.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Despite his conservative leanings, he is fruends with King, they will decide control of senate.

Things would get kind of weird if there was 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats, Sanders, King, Orman, and Pressler. I'm thinking that results in a Democratic majority, but I'm not certain. 50 Republicans and 46 Democrats seems like a sure Republican majority.