MA-09: Emerson/WGBH: Rep. Bill Keating (D) trails by 5

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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Massachusetts's 9th Congressional District includes part of the South Shore and all of Cape Cod. The district is "only" D+5, making it the second most Republican in the state.

Keating has served since 2011. Chapman is a former Romney aide.

http://wgbhnews.org/post/emersonwgbh-news-poll-shows-momentum-charlie-baker

[IceSpear]

lol

[Maxwell]

If only this were true

[SWE]

ok

[free my dawg]

wat

[GaussLaw]

When you don't know either of the candidates and have never heard it discussed as competitive, you know it's junk.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For the record, Scott Brown carried this district in 2012, as did Gabriel Gomez in the 2013 special, so it's not a Safe D district, but it'd still be a huge upset if Keating actually lost.

[Maxwell]

*puts on Keystone Phil mask*

The Bakerwave is coming. All other polls are obsolete.

[tpfkaw]

For the record, Scott Brown carried this district in 2012, as did Gabriel Gomez in the 2013 special, so it's not a Safe D district, but it'd still be a huge upset if Keating actually lost.

Baker's also going to win it, unless Coakley wins by a bigger margin than Patrick did in 2010, which doesn't seem likely.

Nevertheless, I'll believe it when I see it regarding this poll.

[Brittain33]

When you don't know either of the candidates and have never heard it discussed as competitive, you know it's junk.

The Globe had an article about this race being potentially competitive this week.

[Mogrovejo]

There are always some House races that surprise everyone by suddenly becoming competitive late in the cycle seemingly out of nowhere - sometimes even in the electoral night. More often in wave years, but not unheard of in neutral years.

MA-09 is as good of a bet for that upset role as any other district. First time Keating runs here in a midterm. Lots of voters used to split the ticket to vote Republican. We'll see if the national committees start spending here.

Symmetrically (sort of, this scenario is way more far-fetched), maybe Mia Love is just an incredibly weak candidate for UT-04, 2010 wasn't just about Matheson's incumbency and there's something to the Dem internal.

In any case, no reason to dismiss upsets in races currently rated as Likely/Safe.

[tpfkaw]

Symmetrically (sort of, this scenario is way more far-fetched), maybe Mia Love is just an incredibly weak candidate for UT-04, 2010 wasn't just about Matheson's incumbency and there's something to the Dem internal.

Mormons aren't big fans of the blacks.

[DrScholl]

Love being black has nothing to do with her under performance, her problem came from the fact that she bought into hype and ran as a celebrity candidate. If you go back to 2012, she was over matched by Matheson when they had a debate. Her goal is more about making history and gaining recognition, not actually going to the House to be a productive member.

[tpfkaw]

Love being black has nothing to do with her under performance, her problem came from the fact that she bought into hype and ran as a celebrity candidate. If you go back to 2012, she was over matched by Matheson when they had a debate. Her goal is more about making history and gaining recognition, not actually going to the House to be a productive member.

Perhaps, but a white equivalent who could be described the same way would win by 10 in 2012 and 30 this year.

[free my dawg]

Love being black has nothing to do with her under performance, her problem came from the fact that she bought into hype and ran as a celebrity candidate. If you go back to 2012, she was over matched by Matheson when they had a debate. Her goal is more about making history and gaining recognition, not actually going to the House to be a productive member.

Perhaps, but a white equivalent who could be described the same way would win by 10 in 2012 and 30 this year.

lol no

[New_Conservative]

Chapman gets a boost in this race thanks to Baker's momentum, but only way I see him winning this seat is if New Bedford's turnout is not good. New Bedford, Westport, Dartmouth and the South side of Fall River are not Republican-friendly parts of this district. New Bedford is a city of about 90,000 people and will probably erase any impact Baker had on getting voters to the polls in Plymouth and Barnstable Counties.

Unless Chapman gets an incredible amount of help from Super PACs, and the NRCC he is toast financially, not even close to competing with Keating's war chest.