MA-09: Emerson/WGBH: Rep. Bill Keating (D) trails by 5

[tpfkaw]

For the record, Scott Brown carried this district in 2012, as did Gabriel Gomez in the 2013 special, so it's not a Safe D district, but it'd still be a huge upset if Keating actually lost.

Baker's also going to win it, unless Coakley wins by a bigger margin than Patrick did in 2010, which doesn't seem likely.

Nevertheless, I'll believe it when I see it regarding this poll.

[tpfkaw]

Symmetrically (sort of, this scenario is way more far-fetched), maybe Mia Love is just an incredibly weak candidate for UT-04, 2010 wasn't just about Matheson's incumbency and there's something to the Dem internal.

Mormons aren't big fans of the blacks.

[tpfkaw]

Love being black has nothing to do with her under performance, her problem came from the fact that she bought into hype and ran as a celebrity candidate. If you go back to 2012, she was over matched by Matheson when they had a debate. Her goal is more about making history and gaining recognition, not actually going to the House to be a productive member.

Perhaps, but a white equivalent who could be described the same way would win by 10 in 2012 and 30 this year.