Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

There are signs that JIP might be headed for a split.  This is a long time coming.  One of the latest triggers is the Yamagata City mayoral race.

Yamagata City (山形市) capital of Yamagata(山形) with a population of 205K will have an election for mayor 9/13.  The current pro-LDP/KP incumbent is not running for re-election so it is an open seat.  The LDP-KP is backing Takahiro Sato (佐藤孝弘) while DPJ-SDP-PLP will back Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成).  The Abe push for new security bill polarized the opposition against the LDP-KP that even JCP then jumped on the bandwagon and decided to back Umezu.  Then Kakizawa Mito (柿沢未途),  general secretary JIP and backed by JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) announced that JIP will also back Kakizawa  as part of an all out anti-LDP opposition grand alliance.    The JIP governor of Osaka Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎), who is often seen as a proxy for former JIP founder and leader Hashimoto, came out openly and violently against this move demanding that Kakizawa expelled from the JIP.  Toranosuke Katayama (片山虎之助), JIP member of the upper house also came out against  Kakizawa.  Note that  Toranosuke himself was from the LDP Far Right and part of the Sunrise Party (a proto-FPG.)  I was always confused on why  Toranosuke  did not join FPG when JRP split into JIP and PFG back in 2014.

Note that both Matsuno and Kakizawa have DPJ backgrounds (Matsuno went from DPJ->JRP->JIP while Kakizawa went from DPJ->YP->UP->JIP) and are NOT from Osaka.  Matsui of course was part of the original Hashimoto Osaka Restoration movement and then the national JRP.  The JIP is now in danger of splitting into a anti-LDP non-Osaka party followed by a pro-LDP or at least not anti-LDP Osaka party.  Of course if the Osaka party will be a more rightest pro-LDP party, it might as well merge with FPG while the non-Osaka JIP can continue on as a more rightist libertarian but anti-LDP opposition party.

Anyway, the Yamagata city election of 9/13 is going to be fun and a great showdown between LDP-KP versus an all opposition alliance. 

[jaichind]

One more step in the breakup of JIP.  The Osaka based local party Osaka Restoration Association (大阪維新の会) announced the creation of the Kansai Restoration Association (関西維新の会) which will be active in the Kinki (近畿) region.   The  Kansai Restoration Association will still be a regional party which does not conflict with the JIP which is a national party and will be led by governor of Osaka Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎).  But this is clearly a move by former JIP leader Hashimoto to start carving out a piece of JIP that he can control.  Of course Hashimoto claimed after losing the Osaka referendum that he will retire from politics.  But it he can later claim that he meant that he will retire from regional politics and not from national politics.  In such a case the Kansai Restoration Association could go national and led by Hashimoto leaving a rump JIP which has some influence outside of Kinki and made up of centrist and center-right ex-DPJ/YP members.  On the short run, the leadership election of JIP is coming up in Nov 2015.  Hashimoto/Matsui plans must be to to try to use   Kansai Restoration Association as a organization to capture the leadership of JIP by Matsui.  If that succeeds then there is no need to split the JIP.  If that fails then  Kansai Restoration Association will split from JIP and go national and led by either Matsui or Hashimoto.  Either way Hashimoto will be the real leader of this movement. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hashimoto lingers like a bad smell.

Also this is immensely, immensely disturbing news with respect to the upper house elections.

[jaichind]

Election for Morioka (盛岡市) mayor this weekend.   Morioka, city of about 300K, is the capital of Iwate Prefecture (岩手県).   Iwate is pretty much the most anti-LDP prefecture with the possible exception of Okinawa.  The incumbent  Hiroaki (谷藤裕明) is backed by LDP-KP and first won in 2003 beating the DPJ-SDP candidate.  As is the convention in 2007 the non-JCP parties did not nominate a candidate with Tanifuji easily beating the JCP backed candidate.  In 2011 in the aftermath of the earthquake the JCP did not nominate a candidate so Tanifuji won unopposed.  In the sprite of opposition cooperation this time around DPJ and PLP will nominate Uchidate Shigeru (内舘茂) to try to beat the LDP-KP and in a rare act, the JCP did not nominate a candidate to give the anti-LDP opposition a chance to beat the incumbent.    History and convention says that Tanifuji should have the upper hand.  On the other hand Iwate is fairly pro-DPJ/PLP territory plus the JCP will not run a candidate.  So this election this weekend will be another bellwether on the level of anti-incumbent opposition to Abe/LDP as well as the effectiveness of opposition unity.   

Turnout was 51%.  DPJ-PLP candidate Uchidate  failed to unseat Tanifuji losing around 43-57.  This  is actually a fairly close result given that Tanifuji is the incumbent.  This is because JCP and JIP also implicitly backed  Uchidate  but in the end it was not good enough to overcome incumbency. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Abe's bounce (dead cat or otherwise) confirmed.

[jaichind]

Hashimoto lingers like a bad smell.

Also this is immensely, immensely disturbing news with respect to the upper house elections.

Perhaps.  Of course we have to see how things plays out.  A de factor Kansai Restoration Association (KRA) alliance with LDP-KP for sure would be powerful but there would be plenty of flies in the ointment.  For one thing, the Osaka LDP has a vitriolic hatred of Hashimoto and ORA or now KRA.  One benchmark would be the upcoming election of mayor of Osaka to be held on 11/18.  This election would be to fill Hashimoto's role since he will be retiring from politics, so he says. Of course Hashimoto/KRA would want a Hashimoto loyalist to fill that spot.   But a local Osaka LDP heavyweight Yanagimoto Akira (柳本顕) who help lead the grand anti-Hashimoto LDP-DPJ-JCP alliance against the Osaka referendum back in May has also thrown his hat into the ring setting up a LDP vs KRA battle. It is hard to have a de facto LDP KRA alliance, tacit or not, when the two camps are battling it out for Osaka mayor.

[jaichind]

The number of splits and mergers of the non-LDP right over the last three years is staggering and demoralizing for someone like me who is for the right but overall opposed to LDP.  Parties that I actually liked like YP and now the JIP all seem to be falling apart due to internal factional splits.   Pretty soon I might have a Freudian slip and start referring to them as the Judean People's Front by mistake.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

People's Front of Judea!

[jaichind]

With Kakizawa Mito (柿沢未途) refusing to resign as General Secretary of JIP as demanded by Osaka governor and also "Adviser" (a role in a Japanese political party which are given to elder party leaders) of JIP  Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎) is threatenting to resign himself as "Adviser" of JIP.  Hashimoto which holds "Highest Adviser" title in JIP also hinted that he might resign from the role of "Highest Advisor" of JIP.  But there seems no sign that Kakizawa is backing down.  It seems he is backed by JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) as well as former co-leader of JIP Kenji Eda (江田憲司). Kenji has a LDP background but help found the YP and created a YP anti-LDP splinter UP which he then merged with JRP to form JIP.  He resigned back in May when Hashimoto resigned.  He most likely saw something like this coming and did not want to confront Hashimoto directly so he also resigned to counter Hashimoto's moves without exposing himself directly. It is well known that Kakizawa is a protege of Kenji.

It seems that Hashimoto/Matsui are acting this way because they figure they will not be able to muscle up a majority in the JIP MPs.  Only a minority of the JIP MPs are from Osaka and have a ORA background.  The rest have a YP, DPJ and a bunch even have a PLP background.  There as a couple of JIP MPs that have a Sunrise Party of Japan (SPJ) background which really should have joined PFG but should be expected to back Hashimoto.  Still that gives the Hashimoto bloc still a minority status among the JIP MPs.  So threatening to blow up the entire party might be a way to regain control given his minority status.

[jaichind]

Osaka governor Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎) resigns from JIP.  He also claims that Hashimoto will resign from JIP.  It looks likw the next step would be for KRA to split off from JIP.  Note that Matsui also resigned back in May from the role of Governor of Osaka after the failure of the Osaka referendum along with Hashimoto who resigned from the mayor of Osaka.  There is talk that ORA, now KRA, might run Matsui himself for mayor of Osaka to try to hold that seat from the LDP.

[jaichind]

Hashimoto sent an email to JIP resigning from the role of "Supreme Adviser" and from the JIP party.  He said that he still wants his supporters to stay in JIP and that he was leaving as he feels the JIP leadership was to focused on Tokyo based political maneuvering as opposed to true reform at the local level.  He said he and  Osaka governor Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎) will resign from JIP to focus on Osaka local politics and the upcoming elections for Osaka mayor and governor in November.   In a reversal from Matsui's position Hashimoto indicated that Kakizawa Mito (柿沢未途) should not resign as General Secretary of JIP and that he wanted JIP to stay united.


Kakizawa (the one bowing while standing) and  JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) (sitting) at the meeting with JIP MPs announcing Hashimoto's email.

[jaichind]

It seems that Takaya Muto (武藤貴也), MP of Shiga (滋賀) 4th district has resigned from LDP due to a shady stock deal scandal.  He refused to resign from Diet. 

Another scandal broke for Takaya. 



A news report says that one of the reasons Takaya has been scamming money via shady stock deals is that he has been using a very high priced 19 year old male prostitute.   This is not looking good for LDP, Takaya being in LDP or not.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hashimoto sent an email to JIP resigning from the role of "Supreme Adviser" and from the JIP party.  He said that he still wants his supporters to stay in JIP and that he was leaving as he feels the JIP leadership was to focused on Tokyo based political maneuvering as opposed to true reform at the local level.  He said he and  Osaka governor Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎) will resign from JIP to focus on Osaka local politics and the upcoming elections for Osaka mayor and governor in November.   In a reversal from Matsui's position Hashimoto indicated that Kakizawa Mito (柿沢未途) should not resign as General Secretary of JIP and that he wanted JIP to stay united.


Kakizawa (the one bowing while standing) and  JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) (sitting) at the meeting with JIP MPs announcing Hashimoto's email.

Assuming Hashimoto is sincere, this is a refreshingly gracious course of action for him.

[jaichind]

The JIP Osaka based MPs had a separate meeting to discuss if they should leave JIP and join OKA.  It was inconclusive as they seems to be divided.  None of them will leave JIP for now and will continue discussing the issue.

The main conflict here is that Hashimoto looks at politics from an Osaka point of view while the current JIP leadership looks at it through a Tokyo/National point of view.  For Hashimoto the Osaka LDP is the enemy along with Osaka DPJ and Osaka JCP.  The Osaka KP has pro- and anti- Hashimoto factions. In 2011 Osaka mayor race the Osaka LDP Osaka DPJ and Osaka JCP ganged up on Hashimoto to try to beat him which failed.  On the other hand Hashimoto has generally positive relationship with the national LDP and KP but due to the bad blood between Hashimoto and the Osaka LDP there can be no real de facto Hashimoto LDP alliance but only tacit cooperation on issues of interest. But Hashimoto is against any de jure alliance with DPJ or JCP as he sees them as enemies as well and it will hurt his desire to steer JIP in the middle between LDP-KP and DPJ. 

The real solution which is not possible since the evolution of the party system is path dependent is for ORA/KRA to become the LDP in Osaka.  The current Osaka LDP and anti-Hashimoto Osaka KP become the Osaka JIP.  That way the JIP can become a center-right opposition that can have tactical and even formal anti-LDP alliances with DPJ and even JCP.

[jaichind]

PFG is also headed for a split.  PFG founder and leader Hiranuma Takeo (平沼赳夫) is not running for reelection of PFG due to the poor 2014 election result of PFG.  Both PFG General Secretary and Upper House MP Matsuzawa Shigefumi (松沢成文) and Upper House MP Nakayama Kyoko (中山恭子) are running.  

Nakayama is the wife of former MP and also FPG member Nakayama Nariaki (中山成彬).  The Nakayama couple were in LDP and joined Hiranuma's Sunrise Party of Japan before joining JRP and then PFG.  Matsuzawa was part of the Ozawa's movement back in the 1990s then moved to DPJ where he was elected as as DPJ MP.  He then was elected governor of  Kanagawa (神奈川) with DPJ support defeating the LDP candidate but also had support from Tokyo governor Ishihara in 2003.  After becoming governor he drifted away from DPJ and gravitated toward Ishihara.   He resigned in 2011 as governor of Kanagawa to run for governor of Tokyo as Ishihara's heir but called of his campaign when Ishihara decided to run for re-election.  He than ran in 2012 for Tokyo governor after Ishihara resigned to join JRP but was defeated by the pro-LDP candidate.  He then was elected Upper House MP as a YP candidate.  After YP fell apart in 2014 he joined FPG given that Ishihara is there.  

Matsuzawa seeing that he will most likely lose now especially when his main benefactor Ishihara has retired from politics is saying he will quite PFG as he does not agree with the leadership of Nakayama.   Now Nakayama will be elected as leader of PFG unopposed. 

[jaichind]

Some good news for embattled JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) with JIP falling apart and all.

His second daughter Matsuno Mika (松野未佳)

 

Made it into the final round of Miss Japan contest.

[jaichind]

The breakup of JIP continues.  It seems former co-leader of JIP Eda Kenji(江田憲司) meet with Okada Katsuya (岡田 克也) along with current JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) meet just last night and agreed on closer opposition cooperation against LDP-KP.  Also discussed was the prospect of a DPJ-JIP joint candidates in the 2016 Upper House elections.  None of this would be acceptable to Hashimoto.

Meanwhile late last night Hashimoto spoke to supporters where he made it clear that after the Osaka Mayor and Governor elections in November there would be a need for a new national political party based on ORA.   Of course this begs the question of "For a guy that is retiring from politics, Hashimoto seems to planning a lot of activities in politics next few months."

[jaichind]

Actions of both Hashimoto camp and Matsuno camp seems to be feeding off each other toward a accelerated split.  Hashimoto had another meeting with a 12 Osaka based JIP MPs where he said that now he planned to form a new national party around ORA in October.  He said that this was his last political act before he retires.  All 12 MPs pledged to join this new party and lobby the 10 other Osaka based JIP MPs to join this  new party who are currently neutral.  Meanwhile  it is said that JIP leader Matsuno will meet with DPJ leader Okada Monday and the topic of discussion will be the possible merger of JIP (of what is left of it) with DPJ.

The current JIP MPs are made up of Osaka based MPs (which will mostly go with Hashimoto), those with DPJ background (mostly go with Matsuno to join DPJ if that is what is worked out), those with YP background (some might merge with AEJ but will go with what former YP splinter UP leader and then JIP co-leader Eda does which is most likely merge with DPJ), those with PLP background (most likely join merger into DPJ although some might re-join PLP), those with Sunrise Party of Japan background (most likely merge with FPG although some might go with Hashimoto), and a couple of more with Political Group of Okinawa Revolution (despite its name is really a conservative but anti-LDP party in Okinawa) background (the founder of this party joined JIP so this party might get reactivated but allied with DPJ given how unpopular LDP is now in Okinawa.) 

[jaichind]

Looking at the 51 JIP MPs, I can break down their background into this chart
(PGOR is Political Group of Okinawa Revolution, SPJ is Sunrise Party of Japan)
 
                   Upper House              Lower House
PGOR                  1                                1
YP                       6                                9
Osaka                 2                               11
LDP                                                      3
DPJ                     1                                9
PLP                                                       4
SPJ                     1                                3

Note: One of YP Upper house is really pro-YP.  One DPJ lower house is pro-DPJ.   For the YP background MPs, 3 Upper House MPs and 2 Lower House went from LDP to YP (including the YP background JIP leader Eda), 2 Lower House MPs went from DPJ to YP (including JIP General Secretary and center of the entire storm  Kakizawa.  JIP leader Matsuno has DPJ background.  One of the Osaka background Upper House MP is really not based from Osaka but is are so aligned with Hashimoto that I am just counting him as Osaka background.

So if 12 Osaka MP attended the Hashimoto meeting last night and pledged to join the new Hashimoto Party it must be from the 13 MPs of Osaka background.  It is said that the Hashimoto could have up to 20 MP members.  If so then it must be the 13 MPs with Osaka background, 3 with LDP background, and 4 with SPJ background which would make it 20.

If Eda who is de facto leader of the YP bloc and Matsuno who is JIP leader but also leads the DPJ bloc are for merger with DPJ looking at the numbers they can make it happen.  I am sure the PLP bloc will be fine with that too since PLP is just a DPJ splinter.

[jaichind]

Mayor election for the Osaka Prefecture city of Hirakata (枚方市) with a population of well over 400K  was today.  The pro-LDP mayor is running for reelection.   It is a test of Hashimoto popularity as it is another everyone gang up against ORA.   It is ORA's Fushimi Takashi (伏見隆) versus LDP-DPJ-KP backed incumbant Takeuchi Osamu (竹内脩) which also has tacit JCP support.   LDP rebel Namba Hideya (難波 秀哉) is also running.  The exit polls show a near tie between Fushimi and Takeuchi although the breakdown by party is interesting.





In the end it was  Fushimi winning

Fushimi   44.3%
Takeuchi  42.4%
Namba      7.6%

It seems that Namba took a bunch of LDP votes but Fushimi also took a bunch of LDP votes leading to his victory despite the fact that ORA voters are only 26% of voters and LDP DPJ KP and JCP are 25% 9% 7% and 4% of exit voters.  A victory of Hashimoto over the everyone else in Osaka gang up on Hashimoto (LDP DPJ KP JCP).

[jaichind]

Oh yeah, while all this is taking place, Japan had the largest anti-security protests ever.  There were anti-security anti-Abe demonstrations with the largest in Tokyo outside the Diet with a 120K person demonstration.  This will not make much of a difference.  Abe cabinet approval rating is stabilizing and headed up due to his speech on the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII for Japan.  The Upper House will pass the bills. 

[politicus]

Oh yeah, while all this is taking place, Japan had the largest anti-security protests ever. 

Do you mean anti-military?

[jaichind]

Oh yeah, while all this is taking place, Japan had the largest anti-security protests ever. 

Do you mean anti-military?

Sorry I meant anti-security bill protests.

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval continues to recover.  Although I suspect in a month or so if not early it will start dipping again as the affect of the 70 anniversary of end of WWII speech wears off and scrutiny bills continues to be an issue.

[jaichind]

Nice summery of the history of the "Hashimoto parties"