Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

How likely are DPJ open to JIP merging into DPJ and how likely are the YP/DPJ/PLP members willing to merge into DPJ?  From a game theory point of view we have look at it from the gains/benefits of the 2016 Upper House elections.  Currently there are 4 JIP upper house PR MPs that are up for re-election in 2016 which are in the DPJ/YP/PLP background camp of JIP. 

DPJ has to be willing to accommodate them in their party list and be high enough to be elected.  But for that to be true, merging JIP into DPJ must ad 8% more vote share for the DPJ  in the PR section for DPJ to break even. 

How likely will the DPJ/YP/PLP background JIP merged into DPJ add to DPJ's vote share?  A united JIP won  15.7% of the vote in 2014 Lower House election on the PR section.  Lets assume that in Osaka the DPJ/YP/PLP gets 10% of the JIP vote share, 20% of other Kinki prefectures where Hashimoto has influence, and 70% of the JIP vote in the rest of Japan since the Hashimoto JIP is an explicit Osaka based party and less likely to pull in votes in the rest of Japan.  That will give the  DPJ/YP/PLP bloc of JIP around 9% of the vote.  So on that assumption a DPJ/YP/PLP JIP merger will be a net gain.  Of course DPJ/YP/PLP JIP might just continue on as JIP or another name and get that 9% for itself while forming alliances with DPJ in district seats.  I guess that is being debated within the DPJ/YP/PLP JIP right not along with DPJ.

[jaichind]

Looking at the 51 JIP MPs, I can break down their background into this chart
(PGOR is Political Group of Okinawa Revolution, SPJ is Sunrise Party of Japan)
 
                   Upper House              Lower House
PGOR                  1                                1
YP                       6                                9
Osaka                 2                               11
LDP                                                      3
DPJ                     1                                9
PLP                                                       4
SPJ                     1                                3

The current rumor are the the JIP MPs that are Osaka, SPJ, LDP and PGOR will go with Hashimoto and the remaining will stay.  The remaining, which are YP/DPJ/PLP background has not decided to merge with DPJ or continue and form an alliance with DPJ at the district level.

I guess the idea is the LDP will not take back LDP background MPs, SPJ background MPs can join PFG but that party is good for 2.5%-3% of the vote so that is a dead-end.  The PGOR background MPs might go with JIP and merger with DPJ but the problem is that PROG is a center-right Okinawa regional party party while DPJ has an alliance with PLP, OSMP (center-left Okinawa regional party) and JCP.  So PGOR might be fine with merger with DPJ but have issues with alliance with JCP or OSMP.  So going with Hashimoto might be a better option.  Splitting out as PGOR has the flaw that PGOR can never be viable to win PR seats in Upper or Lower House elections.

[jaichind]

Another fun picture of players of JIP what what their relationship are like with other parties.

[jaichind]

The DPJ wants the DPJ/YP/PLP backgroup rump JIP to merge into DPJ just like Ozawa's Liberal Party merged into DPJ back in 2003.  The JIP wants both parties to dissolve and form a new party which other opposition parties like PLP, AEJ or even SDP could them merge into this new party.

[jaichind]

Katayama Toranosuke (片山 虎之助) of JIP who has a SJP (Sunrise Party of Japan) background announced that he will join Hashimoto's new party.  This is the first JIP MP outside of the Osaka background MPs to make this announcement.  This means the SJP background JIP MPs will most likely all join Hashimoto's new party and not instead join FPG.

[jaichind]

Current status of where JIP MPs will go

[jaichind]

DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP and AEJ plan to cooperate to block the enactment of new security bills in a meeting of the heads of all 6 parties.  They sem to want to fill a no-confidence motion against Abe.  Who votes against Abe from JIP will give us clear ideas which side which JIM MP will go with as the pro-Hashimoto JIP MPs will most likely abstain than to vote against Abe. 

Also Iwate (岩手) Prefecture assembly elections this weekend.   The opposition alliance of DPJ-PLP-SDP-JCP will make the security bills an issue to continue anti-LDP opposition majority in this Prefecture assembly which makes it pretty much the only such assembly other than Okinawa.

[jaichind]

What Hashimoto says and does recently does not make sense. First he resigns from JIP but says he does not want to split JIP.  Then the next day he announces he will form a new national party.  Then we hear rumors that the new national party will be called Osaka Restoration Association with an agenda of pushing the merger of Osaka City and Osaka Prefecture along with Osaka autonomy.  Only problem is this new alleged name and platform does not sound particularly national.   Then Hashimoto says that this new party will contest in every constituency in next year's Upper House elections.  My question is why would someone in, say, Hokkaido, vote for a party call Osaka Restoration Association with a platform about Osaka autonomy?  It seems that such a national party should be an alliance of the ORA and other center-right opposition forces in the rest of Japan.  But wait, that is exactly what JIP but Hashimoto claims that it is no good because it focuses too much on Tokyo based national politics and yet he still wants to form a new national party.

[jaichind]

There are more rumors that Hashimoto will run for the Upper House in 2016.  When asked about it he said that is a decision for the future.  So much for retirement from politics.  What is also funny about this is that Hashimoto used to, I think still does, have the political position that the Upper House should be abolished.

[jaichind]

Iwate (岩手) Prefecture assembly election results coming in.  LDP will most likely flat or losing a seat in terms of seats and down a bit in terms of vote share relative to 2011.

[jaichind]

Iwate (岩手) Prefecture assembly election results and comparison to 2011.


2011

I included LDP backed independents with LDP and DPJ backed independents with DPJ
IRP stands for 地域政党岩手 (Iwate Regional Party.)  It is a center-left regional party but is anti-Ozawa and as a result did form tactical alliances with LDP.

Turnout 52.8%

                   Contested   Won    Vote%
LDP                18           13      24.64%
KP                    1             1        1.62%
IRP                  7             4       10.98%
DPJ                34            24      49.41%
SDP                 4              3       5.53%
JCP                  3              2       4.45%
YP                   1               0       0.95%
Independent    4              1       2.42%


2015

Since 2011 Ozawa split the DPJ creating PLP.  Then DPJ SDP PLP JCP formed a anti-LDP opposition alliance in response to Abe's pushing for new security bills which was created by Ozawa.  The anti-Ozawa parts of the remaining DPJ merged with IRP to form  ICC (Iwate Citizen's Club)  岩手県民クラブ which should also be seen as a center-left anti-Ozawa tactical ally of LDP.  DPJ SDP PLP and JCP also decided to back a bunch of independents with various DPJ SDP PLP backgrounds as anti-LDP United Front candidates.    For ICC I included the pro-ICC independents.  The grand anti-LDP United Front alliance independent candidates I put under Ind-UF.  

Turnout 46.0%

                   Contested   Won    Vote%
LDP                16           13      21.38%
KP                    1             1        1.89%
ICC                  8             6       14.36%
DPJ                  5             5         7.70%
PLP                  9             6       16.18%
SDP                 3              2        6.13%
Ind-UF           15            11      21.86%
JCP                  3              3        7.03%
Independent    3              1        3.48%

LDP seat share stayed the same but lost vote share.   ICC was able to capture the anti-Ozawa center-left vote.  Many of the pro-Ozawa candidates ran as Ind-UF.  So in terms of vote share this a wash from 2011.  Some LDP lost some votes due to security bills and center-left votes were lost to ICC due to anti-Ozawa feelings in some center-left circles.  As usual is the trend recently, JCP continues to surge.  The independents are mostly made up for DPJ or ICC rebels with the one independent that won is an ICC rebel.  Given the continued domination of the pro-Ozawa parities in the legislature, I expect ICC to form tactical alliances with LDP just like IRP did after 2011.

In the end, Ozawa who worked to create this united front can claim some sort of victory by pushing down the vote share of the LDP-KP but he will have to accept that the market for the center-left anti-Ozawa vote is also expanding so he is emerging as an impediment to an opposition grand alliance against LDP.

[jaichind]

Yamagata City (山形市) election is this weekend of 9/13.  After the Iwate Prefectural assembly elections this is billed as the next showdown that could affect how the vote in the Upper House on the security will go.  The LDP-KP candidate Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘) is also being backed by the hawkish PFG and NPR.  Wile the DPJ-SDP-PLP-JCP candidate  Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成) is tacitly backed by non-Hashimoto part of JIP.   The opposition is billing this vote as a referendum on Abe's attempt to pass the new security bills

Back in 2011 it was

DPJ-SDP-JCP backed incumbent with tacit KP support 49.5
LDP candidate                                                           38.2
independent with LDP background                             12.3

This time around the sharp contrast between ruling and opposition camps is much more polarized.

[jaichind]

JIP leader Matsuno, in an attempt to regain control of the party, and win over the wavering middle,  remove 3 JIP MPs from their leadership positions.  He removed Kakizawa Mito (柿沢未途) as General Secretary for provoking the conflict which led to the departure of Hashimoto to try to win over the YP background members of the JIP to stay.  He also removed Baba Nobuyuki (馬場伸幸) as JIP Diet affairs Chief and Katayama Toranosuke (片山 虎之助) as head of the JIP caucus in the Upper House.  It has been clear that both Baba and Katayama will defect to Hashimoto's new party so it makes no sense to keep them in the leadership group to disrupt the JIP from within.  Matsuno is trying to keep as many MPs as possible so he has the negotiation power to work out a favorable deal with DPJ on an alliance or merger.

[jaichind]

NTV  Poll which had

Abe Cabinet Approval at 39/43

Do you support Hashimoto's actions in splitting JIP and creating a new party

Yes          29.9%
No           50.3%
Not sure  19.3%

Do you have any positive expectations of Hashimoto's new party

Yes           30.0%
No            58.9%
Not sure   11.1%

Too bad there are no cross-tabs to see if the 30% or so that has positive views of Hashimoto are mostly LDP supporters or not as I suspect it is.  If a good portion of that 30% are from the non-LDP bloc then next years Upper House elections will be very positive for LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

Yamagata City (山形市) mayoral election tomorrow.   The DPJ-SDP-PLP-JCP candidate  Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成) is pretty much running 100% on the security bill issue while the LDP-KP candidate Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘) is pretty much avoiding the issue.  While public opinion is on the side of the opposition on the security bill issue the  DPJ-SDP-PLP-JCP strategy of trying to tie a national issue to a race for mayor might backfire. 

One way or another the LDP-KP plan is to pass the new security bills in the Upper House 9/17 or 9/18.  This might get delayed by a day or two due to the joint opposition DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP and AEJ vote of no confidence motion.  But if the LDP-KP could not get through the procedural hurdles to pass the Upper House then Abe has to either give up this year and try next year or have the Lower House override the Upper House with its 2/3 majority.  This act of using the 2/3 majority is rare and Abe would most likely want to avoid this. 

If  Umezu wins tomorrow it will give the DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP AEJ bloc the excuse and claimed mandate to block the LDP-KP attempts to get the security bill up for a vote.

[jaichind]

Looking at the 51 JIP MPs, I can break down their background into this chart
(PGOR is Political Group of Okinawa Revolution, SPJ is Sunrise Party of Japan)
 
                   Upper House              Lower House
PGOR                  1                                1
YP                       6                                9
Osaka                 2                               11
LDP                                                      3
DPJ                     1                                9
PLP                                                       4
SPJ                     1                                3

Note: One of YP Upper house is really pro-YP.  One DPJ lower house is pro-DPJ.   For the YP background MPs, 3 Upper House MPs and 2 Lower House went from LDP to YP (including the YP background JIP leader Eda), 2 Lower House MPs went from DPJ to YP (including JIP General Secretary and center of the entire storm  Kakizawa.  JIP leader Matsuno has DPJ background.  One of the Osaka background Upper House MP is really not based from Osaka but is are so aligned with Hashimoto that I am just counting him as Osaka background.

So if 12 Osaka MP attended the Hashimoto meeting last night and pledged to join the new Hashimoto Party it must be from the 13 MPs of Osaka background.  It is said that the Hashimoto could have up to 20 MP members.  If so then it must be the 13 MPs with Osaka background, 3 with LDP background, and 4 with SPJ background which would make it 20.

If Eda who is de facto leader of the YP bloc and Matsuno who is JIP leader but also leads the DPJ bloc are for merger with DPJ looking at the numbers they can make it happen.  I am sure the PLP bloc will be fine with that too since PLP is just a DPJ splinter.

Latest on JIP split.  It seems so far 17 out of 51 MPs will join the Hashimoto new party which I assume is the Osaka background MPs and most of the Sunrise and LDP background MPs.  24 will stay on with JIP which they know will mean alliance or even merger with DPJ which I assume are those with DPJ PLP background MPs plus those with YP background which were not originally from LDP.  10 seems to be on the fence which I assume are remainder of those MPs of YP background plus PGOR background are said to consider a third way, which would really mean something like merge into AEJ.

[jaichind]

Yamagata City (山形市) mayoral election voting done.  Turnout is 57.5%, 10% higher than 4 years ago.  So the nationalization and polarization is having an affect.

[jaichind]

Exit polls show LDP-KP backed Sato Takahiro 佐藤孝弘 having the edge.



The margins seems big enough to be sure that Sato did win.

[jaichind]

With about 34% of the vote counted it is a virtual tie between Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘) and Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成).  But given the exit polls projecting a Sato win of 5%-10% Sato should pull it out.

[jaichind]

56% of the vote counted.  Still virtual tie of around 49.5-49.5 between Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘) and Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成).  It seems that the exit polls overestimated the independent Igarashi (五十嵐右二) making the race much closer than the the exit polls projected.  Still Sato should still have the advantage.

[jaichind]

Cross tabs on exit polls by party supporter. 

As expected LDP supporters which make up 43% of the electorate backed Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘)
while DPJ with 18% of the electorate backed Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成)
Independents which make up 30% of the electorate tilts Umezu. 
I do not buy that only 2% of voters are KP supporters.  I suspect around 10% of the 30% of the electorate that claims to be independent are really KP supporters but does not want to disclose it to exit pollsters.

[jaichind]

94% of the vote counted. Still virtual tie at around 48.6-48.6.

[jaichind]

Looks like Sato wins by a tiny margin.  Exact vote count not out yet.

[jaichind]

Sort of final results

Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘)        49.1%
Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成)   47.6%
Igarashi (五十嵐右二)                3.3%




Looks like the independent had a late surge making the results somewhat bigger than the count indicated.  Still a lot closer than the 5%-10% win by Sato as indicated by exit polls.

Not sure what the opposition bloc  DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP and AEJ  will do now in the Upper House to block the new security bill since they billed this election as an referendum.  Looks like now Abe will get his way one way or another and the bill will pass.

[jaichind]

The exit polls also shows a large majority of voters oppose the security bills 37-63 but I guess LDP-KP attempt to keep the race about local issues won out in the end.