Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

Obviously under the current circumstances it seems hard to dislodge LDP from power anytime soon.  At best LDP can be contained but not stopped.  It has been stated that one way this can be broken is for LDP itself to split like in 1993 creating the space for the opposition to break in.  This of course is a two edged sword.  The LDP splinter can sometimes capture opposition space as to create a system where it is LDP vs LDP splinter and squeezing out the current opposition (DPJ JCP) all together.  In several prefectures the split of the LDP has actually squeezed the opposition without hurting the LDP political discourse/conflict moves to be within the LDP.  The most extreme and famous example of this is what took place in Osaka where the ORA was formed as a LDP splinter and in turn captured the entire non-LDP space before doing a minor version of it at the national level with the JRP.

To be fair Osaka is somewhat unique since there has always been resentment toward Tokyo so when Hashimoto who was elected governor of Osaka in 2008 as THE LDP candidate the ground was mature for a local Osaka pride revolt within the LDP against the LDP leadership in Osaka led by Hashimoto who did not get along with the Osaka LDP leadership.

One can see what took place by looking at the Osaka prefecture election results of 2007 2011 and 2015.

2007
            Contest         Won      Vote Share
LDP           67            52           35.12%
KP             23            23           18.53%
DPJ           38             25           23.53%
SDP            1               1             0.75%
JCP           45             11           20.60%
Indep       12               0             1.48%

Here Osaka seems to have pretty "normal" election results at the prefecture level with LDP-KP domination with DPJ winning in districts with larger number of seats and LDP-KP dominating the 1- seat districts.  JCP is stronger than normal here but that seems to be at the expense of DPJ-SDP.


Then ORA was created in 2010 was Hashimoto split the LDP.  ORA challenged the LDP-KP across the board in 2011 defeated it by a significant margin   Note that 29 out of the 61 ORA candidates in 2011 were LDP incumbents from 2007.


2011
              Contest        Won      Vote Share
LDP            42             17          18.34%
KP              22             21          14.49%
ORA            61             58          41.07%
YP                2               1            0.75%
DPJ             36             10         12.91%
SDP              1               0           0.31%
JCP             38              4          11.60%
Indep           4              0            0.54%
  
Here ORA was allied with YP and ORA-YP won 41.82% versus LDP-KP 32.83% and winning a majority of seats.  ORA seems to draw its vote equally from DPJ-SDP and JCP as LDP-KP as it drew on the anti-LDP vote bloc from DPJ-SDP and JCP.   After the election it was clear that ORA was pretty hostile toward DPJ-SDP and JCP as well as it was Hashimoto's goal to completely displace them as the alternative to LDP.  As a result a de facto LDP-KP DPJ-SDP and JCP alliance was formed to stop ORA.  But this merely pushed anti-ORA votes in the DPJ toward LDP in 2015.  Another thing that hurt DPJ and JCP is the ORA administration reduced the number of seats in the Osaka Prefecture Assembly in the name of efficiency.   This reduced the relative number of 4- and 5- seat districts and increased the number of 1- and 2- seat districts.  With LDP-KP and ORA having vote share larger than DPJ and JCP, the 2015 elections would be fought on even more disadvantageous ground for DPJ and JCP.


2015
           Contest       Won         Vote Share
LDP        52             26            29.39%
KP          15             15            10.73%
ORA        57             43            42.86%
DPJ         14              1               4.81%
JCP         35              3             11.83%
Indep       9               0               0.39%

This result pretty much finishes DPJ as a viable force in Osaka for a while with JCP completely marginalized keeping part of its vote bloc but not able to win any seats.  DPJ adds to this process by tactically supporting LDP in many districts where it only accelerates is decline.  LDP-KP did recover to push ORA below a majority but mostly by taking DPJ votes.

So the LDP civil war in Osaka merely serve to strengthen both LDP factions (LDP and ORA) at the expense of everyone else.

Now, since there are many 1- and 2- seats, these numbers might be warped by tactical voting and smaller parties might not put up candidates in these seats.  One way to work around this is to only look at 3- 4- 5- and 6- member districts in 2015 and calculate vote share based on these districts only.  Here all significant parties are likely to nominate candidates in these seats.  We can then compare these results to the same districts in 2011 and 2007.  Bases on that we have

2007
            Contest         Won      Vote Share
LDP           13              9           29.08%
KP               8              8           24.42%
DPJ             9               9          25.10%
SDP            1               1             2.67%
JCP             8               6           17.65%
Indep         5               0             1.07%


2011
              Contest        Won      Vote Share
LDP              7              4           14.71%
KP                8              8           20.78%
ORA              8             8           32.91%
YP                1              1            1.63%
DPJ             10             6           16.46%
SDP              1              0           1.06%
JCP               7              4          12.26%
Indep           1              0            0.20%


2015
          Contest       Won         Vote Share
LDP          9              7             19.37%
KP            7              7             18.55%
ORA          9              9            36.91%
DPJ           8              1             11.49%
JCP           7              3             13.48%
Indep       2               0               0.21%

Here we can see that DPJ's drop is not as dramatic as the overall numbers show but is severe enough to make it only somewhat viable in on districts larger than 3- seats.  Of course the narrative is the same.  First for 2011 DPJ-SDP and JCP votes drifted to ORA in addition to the votes ORA took from LDP which it split out of.  The in 2015 DPJ-SDP continued to lose support to both LDP-KP and ORA.   And that is without the affect of tactical voting.  The 2015 numbers are fairly close the PR section for 2014 Lower House elections in Osaka so this methodology I choose seems to be fairly valid.  

[jaichind]

In addition to PFG losing is 5th MP recently making it no longer a valid caucus which then cuts them off from funding, the AEJ also lost a 5th MP.  One 井上義行 (Inoue Yoshiyuki) recently also quit AEJ which reduces AEJ to 4 MPs.  Just like PFG this cuts AEJ off from government funding.  ARG which was just created by former JIP members as 5 members.  It is possible AEJ might need to do a deal with ARG or PFG to get back above 5 MPs or somehow attract various center-right independent MPs to join AEJ. PFG is in the same situation.  

It seems  井上義行 (Inoue Yoshiyuki) who quit AEJ recently has decided to caucus with LDP.  He was elected in 2013 on the Upper House YP PR slate.  I guess he is angling to join LDP so he can get renominated and reelected in 2019.

PFG Upper House MP 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) has left PFG to be an independent indicating that he might join ORA.  Of course he being up for re-election in 2016 and having no prospect of being re-elected on the FPG slate is a key factor.  I guess he is hoping to get on the ORA PR list.   PFG now has only 4 MPs and below the threshold to form a caucus which in turn means it will lose government funding.  PFG is pretty much finished as is.  It could perhaps merge with AEJ or the new JIP splinter ARG or perhaps with ORA itself.

Also, Former PFG MP 松沢成文 (Shigefumi Matsuzawa) who quit PFG back in the summer when it was obvious he could not win the PFG leadership contest is looking to form yet another Right wing party.  It seems he might be perhaps trying to create this new party by merging ARG into it.  I guess it is also possible if 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) does not get a good deal from ORA he might join this outfit.

If seems 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) who quit PFG (now PCJM) recently has decided to join ORA.

It seems Jan 1 2016 is the deadline for PCJM and AEJ to get their number of MPs to be 5 or above or lose government funding for the party.

[jaichind]

Current Japan RCP Cabinet Approval rating (blue for approve and red for disapprove).  Abe Cabinet average approval now back up to where it was in early Summer before the security bill controversy.  

[jaichind]

Asahi reports that Abe is considering same-day parliament elections to help boost chances of gaining seats in upper house so that his government can have necessary 2/3 majority in both chambers to change constitution.

[jaichind]

Abe and the LDP will run in the July Upper House elections on the platform of getting a 2/3 majority for Constitutional change.  ORA is also running arguing that a vote for it is a vote for ORA to be a part of that 2/3 majority in the Upper House.

Meanwhile, it seems that after DPJ and JIP formed a joint caucus in the Lower House paving the way for a similar move in the Upper House followed by a possible merger, the JIP and AEJ decided to form a joint caucus in the Upper House.  This complicates DPJ-JIP alliance and merger plans.  The DPJ seems to be fairly upset about this as they were not consulted on this move by JIP.  I guess JIP is trying to increase its bargaining position vis-a-vis DPJ to forming a bloc with AEJ.  AEJ needs this as it is down to just 4 MPs and in danger of getting is government funding cut off for falling below 5 MPs.

[jaichind]

Professor of Sociology and Political Science 児玉克哉 (Kodama Katsuya) came out with projections of election results if there were a double election which is fairly negative for DPJ JIP.  He has

Upper House

Pro-Constitution Revision
LDP        68 (of which 20 PR) for a total of 131 
KP          11 (of which  7 PR)  for a total of  22
ORA         5 (of which  2 PR) for a total of   10
PCJM        0                          for a total of    3

Anti-Constitution Revision
DPJ        27 (of which 10 PR) for a total of  44
JIP           3 (of which   2 PR) for a total of   4
JCP          9 (of which   6 PR) for a total of  17
PLP          1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
SDP         1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
OSMP      1 (of which    0 PR) for a total of   2

Unknown position on Constitution Revision
AEJ         0                          for a total of    2

Which should give a easy 2/3 majority for Constitutional revision. 

For Lower House he projects

LDP             302       (230 District 72 PR)
KP                 37        (   9 District 28 PR)
ORA              15         (   6 District  9 PR)
PCJM              0
AEJ                0
DPJ               77        ( 39 District 38 PR)
JIP                11        (  3 District   8 PR)
PLP                 1        (  1 District   0 PR)
SDP                1        (  0 District   1 PR)
JCP               26        (  2 District  24 PR)

Which is very similar to 2014 with a small swing to LDP-KP and JIP and ORA losing out slightly from the JIP split. 

[jaichind]

The magazine 週刊文春 (Shukan Bunshun) came out with their own projections for Upper House elections which are somewhat more pro-DPJ than other media projections.  They have

LDP       41 District 17 PR = 58
KP          7  District   6 PR = 13
ORA       2 District    6 PR  =  8
PCJM      0 District    1 PR  =  1
AEJ        1 District    0 PR  =  1
NPR                                  =  0
DPJ       15 District   9 PR  = 24
JIP         1 District    1 PR   = 2
PLP        1 District    1 PR   = 2
SDP       0 District    1 PR   = 1
OSMP     1 District       PR   =1
JCP         3 District   6 PR   = 9
Ind         1 District             = 1  



It actually projected 2 seats for independents but I just assumed one of them must be OSMP.  I have no idea what the other one would be, most likely some sort of pro-DPJ independent running with support from JIP and/or JCP.

[jaichind]

Latest NHK poll has

LDP     37.5
KP        4.3
ORA      1.9
ARG      0.1
JIP        0.3
DPJ       8.1
PLP       0.3
SDP      0.6
JCP       4.2

Using my rule of thumb of LDP+KP PR vote should be NHK poll of LDP+KP+(2-3), that should give LDP+KP around 44%-45% of the vote if elections were held today. 

[jaichind]

Newspaper 毎日新聞 (Mainichi) came out with their own projections of a double election.



For Upper House it has

Upper House

Pro-Constitution Revision
LDP        63 (of which 18 PR) for a total of 128  
KP          14 (of which  7 PR)  for a total of  25
ORA         8 (of which  5 PR) for a total of   13
PCJM        0                          for a total of    3

Anti-Constitution Revision
DPJ        23 (of which   9 PR) for a total of  40
JIP           1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
JCP          8 (of which   7 PR) for a total of  16
PLP          1 (of which   0 PR) for a total of   2
SDP         1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
OSMP      1 (of which    0 PR) for a total of   2

Unknown position on Constitution Revision
AEJ         0                          for a total of    2

A easy 2/3 majority for LDP+KP+ORA+PCJM



Then we have Lower House election projections


LDP             301       (225 District 76 PR)
KP                 34        (   8 District 26 PR)
ORA              23         (   7 District 16 PR)
PCJM              0
AEJ                0
DPJ               75        ( 39 District 36 PR)
JIP                  5        (  3 District   2 PR)
PLP                 3        (  2 District   1 PR)
SDP                2        (  1 District   1 PR)
JCP               23        (  1 District  22 PR)
ARG                1        ( 1 District    0 PR)

To some extent this project is more depression to the opposition.  It seems to project LDP-KP vote PR share to be around 50%-51%  from 46.8% in 2014 and 48.9% in 2013.  It seems that given the limited gains LDP got in FPTP seats despite this vote share was limited because DPJ-JIP are expected to have good tactically alliances.  So this projection says that so much of the JIP base has gone over to ORA that even a DPJ-JIP-SDD-PLP with outside support from JCP will still get steamrolled by LDP-KP.

These results seems contrary to what the implied vote shares of LDP-KP will get based on the NHK poll so we will have to see.  One thing is for sure, even if this poll exaggerates the size of the LDP-KP vote share, unless DPJ JIP and JCP find a way to have alliances across the board the LDP-KP-ORA+PCJM will have a 2/3 majority in the Upper House given the LDP likely sweep of the single members districts.  T 

It is interesting that all polls seems to indicate that a majority of the voting population seems to be opposed to changing Article 9 but it seems  that this upcoming election will give a clear mandate for such a change.  If these were the results then Abe will go down as one of the if not the most powerful and impact PMs in postwar Japan.  Most of his policies for economic and demographic revival are going nowhere but it seems his real goal of changing the Constitution is likely to be realized.

[aross]

It is interesting that all polls seems to indicate that a majority of the voting population seems to be opposed to changing Article 9 but it seems  that this upcoming election will give a clear mandate for such a change.  If these were the results then Abe will go down as one of the if not the most powerful and impact PMs in postwar Japan.  Most of his policies for economic and demographic revival are going nowhere but it seems his real goal of changing the Constitution is likely to be realized.

Surely, since constitutional amendments require a referendum, it will then simply fail to pass at that stage? (unless Abe succeeds in shifting popular opinion, that is)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Most of his policies for economic and demographic revival are going nowhere but it seems his real goal of changing the Constitution is likely to be realized.

wow
such success
so consequential
many transformative

Surely, since constitutional amendments require a referendum, it will then simply fail to pass at that stage? (unless Abe succeeds in shifting popular opinion, that is)

I'll rephrase some of what jaichind was saying, or at least implying: Abe's superpower seems to be that everything he wants to do that is bad for Japan or the world gets done as he wants it no matter what the apparent odds against it are or how unpopular it seems at the start of the process to be. The drawback is that nothing he wants to do that is good for Japan and the world goes as planned.

[jaichind]

It is interesting that all polls seems to indicate that a majority of the voting population seems to be opposed to changing Article 9 but it seems  that this upcoming election will give a clear mandate for such a change.  If these were the results then Abe will go down as one of the if not the most powerful and impact PMs in postwar Japan.  Most of his policies for economic and demographic revival are going nowhere but it seems his real goal of changing the Constitution is likely to be realized.

Surely, since constitutional amendments require a referendum, it will then simply fail to pass at that stage? (unless Abe succeeds in shifting popular opinion, that is)

Yes.  But at this stage nothing that Abe manages to pull off will surprise me.  He is pretty much going to run in 2016 on the platform of Constitutional change and various other nice sounding but empty slogans in a environment where the polls in theory say that a significant plurality are against Constitutional change and will now somehow cruise to a landslide victory.  So if he can pull that off (which is still a if so far) then why is it he cannot charm/convince a majority of those that will bother to vote to vote for these constitutional amendments.  It is not that these amendments are bad as all things equal I think they make sense and I would actually back them all things equal.  It is more passing them does nothing to help the economy or demographic situation.  I am just shocked that Abe is able to get away with all this while all his various campaigns "womenonomics" "Three arrows" "New Three arrows"  "100 million campaign" (there is actually a "100 million" Minister whose job is to build a "Society in Which All 100 million People can be Active" ) etc etc are all just going nowhere and accomplishing nothing.  And we are talking about him being in power 3 years already.

[jaichind]

Most of his policies for economic and demographic revival are going nowhere but it seems his real goal of changing the Constitution is likely to be realized.

wow
such success
so consequential
many transformative

I was more thinking about how he is able to completely transform the partisan alignment where he pretty much occupied the entire political space squeezing the DPJ on all sides.  He was able to turn a LDP spliter, ORA, into a party that takes DPJ votes but helps Abe with his political agenda which is the best of all worlds.  If he holds a double election in 2016 and wins in a landslide that would be 3 Lower House landslides in a row and 2 Upper House landslides in a row.  No LDP leader has every come close to doing that.  Even for Koizumi the 2003 Lower House and 2004 Upper House election were narrow victories.  His victories are so massive that even the JCP is considering having an alliance with centrist anti-LDP opposition. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Most of his policies for economic and demographic revival are going nowhere but it seems his real goal of changing the Constitution is likely to be realized.

wow
such success
so consequential
many transformative

I was more thinking about how he is able to completely transform the partisan alignment where he pretty much occupied the entire political space squeezing the DPJ on all sides.  He was able to turn a LDP spliter, ORA, into a party that takes DPJ votes but helps Abe with his political agenda which is the best of all worlds.  If he holds a double election in 2016 and wins in a landslide that would be 3 Lower House landslides in a row and 2 Upper House landslides in a row.  No LDP leader has every come close to doing that.  Even for Koizumi the 2003 Lower House and 2004 Upper House election were narrow victories.  His victories are so massive that even the JCP is considering having an alliance with centrist anti-LDP opposition. 

Yeah, I got what you were saying, it's just absolutely ridiculous and depressing that THIS is what Abe is successful and consequential and transformative at and everything that could actually HELP Japan is falling flat.

[jaichind]

This article

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/01/16/national/osaka-ishin-walks-tightrope-big-top/#.Vpr0svkrKUk

Points out that if there is a post 2016 election deal between LDP-KP and ORA for a 2/3 majority for Constitution revision, then what does ORA get out of it.  KP has already been bribed by exempting food and drings from next year's planned consumption tax increases.    Of course this blows a hole in the budget mean to shore up Japan pension system.  How will ORA be bribed ?  It seems that Hashimoto has the dream of merging Osaka City and Osaka Prefecture to create Osaka Metropolis as almost a second capital to Tokyo.  It is obvious that Hashimoto will demand all sort of financial resources his dream a reality.  I guess even if there is a LDP-KP-ORA 2/3 majority in the Upper House after the July 2016 elections, Abe will have to borrow from the future some more to make his dream of Constitution change a reality.   

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Holy ing hell he is such an actively terrible and malevolent leader

[jaichind]

Mayoral election for 大津市 (Ōtsu) which is the largest city in 滋賀 (Shiga) is today.  Incumbent 越直美(Yue Naomi) who was elected in 2012 with DPJ-SDP support along with anti-LDP Shiga fromer governor 嘉田 由紀子 (Kada Yukiko) who help found PLP with Ozawa before retiring from national politics.  Usually in re-elections all parities except for JCP tends to back the incumbent.  In this case it seems in addition to JCP LDP-KP will back Prefectural assmebly member and former YP member 蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko).  LDP-KP knows that beating  越直美(Yue Naomi) will be hard so they wanted to expand their voting base by getting  蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko) who is now caucuses with a group that is non-LDP  to run.  Most likely this will not work and   Incumbent 越直美(Yue Naomi) should win.  

 

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll just out for 大津市 (Ōtsu) mayor race



Incumbent DPJ-SDP backed 越直美(Yue Naomi) ahead but with less than 50% of the vote.  LDP-KP backed 蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko) behind by around 10%.  The other 2 candidates are one JCP-backed independent and one SDP rebel.

Back in 2012 it was 越直美(Yue Naomi) 44% LDP-KP backed incumbent 36% JCP 20%.  At age 36 back in 2012  越直美(Yue Naomi) is one of the youngest mayors ever in Japan.  These exit poll results seems to have a similar partisan mix as 2012.

[jaichind]

For 大津市 (Ōtsu) mayor race so far it is

DPJ-SDP supported 越直美(Yue Naomi)    40.0%
LDP-KP backed 蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko)  36.7%
SDP rebel                                               14.8%
JCP                                                          8.5%

So the DPJ-SDP supported 越直美(Yue Naomi) is under-perfoming exit polls so far.  It is also clear that the SDP rebel (who is also a famous singer) is pull ing a lot of the JCP vote from 2012 and it seem a part of the DPJ vote base as well.

[jaichind]

Holy ing hell he is such an actively terrible and malevolent leader

Yes.  Lets be clear.  I actually do back, on principle, the Constitutional Amendments Abe wants to put in place.  I think where it gets silly is when Abe goes around bribing various political players to back his plan which represents an opportunity cost relative to other problems he should be working on.

[jaichind]

For 大津市 (Ōtsu) mayor race DPJ-SDP supported 越直美(Yue Naomi)  had a late surge so the final result are

DPJ-SDP supported 越直美(Yue Naomi)    42.1%
LDP-KP backed 蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko)  35.5%
SDP rebel                                               14.2%
JCP                                                          8.2%

Turnout did move up from 2012. 

[jaichind]

松野未佳 (Matsuno Mika), daughter of JIP leader 松野頼久 (Matsuno Yorihisa) wins Miss Japan Contest

[jaichind]

Kyoto Mayoral elections today.  Major blow to JCP.  The LDP-KP-DPJ backed incumbent was running for re-election in this JCP stronghold.  The incumbent was expected to win but it was expected that perhaps the JCP could keep it close like in 2012.  Instead the JCP was beaten almost 2 to 1



It one looks at the JCP and non-JCP voet in Kyoto


We see that the JCP (purple line) mostly kept it close to the non-JCP vote.  But this election that gap was blown wide open.  And turnout, which is the green line, while it fell from 2012, did not fall dramatically so it was not an issue of the pro-JCP floating vote not turning out

Looking at exit polls


Where the LDP+KP voter was 46% (39%+7%) (many KP supporters I suspect lie to exit pollsters and claim they are LDP instead of KP voters as I cannot believe the KP has only 7% support in Kyoto) of the electorate while the JCP voter was 14% of the electorate shows a major erosion of the JCP machine.  DPJ, which mostly as a result of JCP strength, and are around 10% of are mostly anti-JCP and joined up with LDP-KP just like last few election cycles.  If this trends continues even if DPJ-JCP gangs up in Upper Hose elections this Summer the LDP-KP will still win.

[Simfan34]

Kyoto is a Communist stronghold? It's amazing, really-- who would have thought Japan would have been perhaps the only developed country where the Communist Party remained relevant?

[jaichind]

Kyoto is a Communist stronghold? It's amazing, really-- who would have thought Japan would have been perhaps the only developed country where the Communist Party remained relevant?

If you read the platform of the JCP you would find that it is mostly a European Social Democratic Party.  Also Kyodo is a JCP stronghold in the sense that it is capable of winning elections on its own even though it is infrequent.   It is the largest non-LDP political force there and in fact, as I pointed out, often force the creation of anti-JCP united front from time to time.