Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

LDP rebel Tokyo governor 小池 百合子 (Koike Yuriko) looks set to create her own regional party in Tokyo made up for pro-Koike LDP rebels to compete in the 2017 Tokyo Prefectural elections.  While this is bad news for LDP it is even worse news for DP.  Koike's party will most likely take up most of the anti-LDP space in Tokyo completely pushing out DP and JCP.

Projections of what the result might look like with the Koike Party in the 2017 Tokyo Prefectural elections which I suspect will be backed by Hashimoto's JRP.


LDP               30
KP                 23

Koike Party    49
JRP                 1

DP                10
SNT                2  東京・生活者ネットワーク Seikatsusha Network of Tokyo is a Tokyo Left regional party

JCP               12

They even broke it out by election district




Back in 2013 when DP was crushed in a landslide defeat it was

LDP             59
KP               23

JRP               2
YP                7

DP             15
DP rebel       1
SNT             3

JCP             17

As one can see, if these projections end up being correct Tokyo will go the way of 大阪(Osaka) where DP and JCP are pushed out of the political space completely with LDP-KP battles a Right wing Third Pole
opposition party with DP and even JCP voters having to take sides between LDP-KP and the Third Pole party.  It also seems that Koike Party will eat into LDP but not the KP vote which makes sense.

In fact the collapse of DP (red) and JCP (orange) will be quite dramatic when compared to 2005 and 2009 (when DPJ captured power in the Tokyo Prefecture Assembly)

[jaichind]

It seems that LDP rebel Tokyo governor 小池 百合子 (Koike Yuriko) has started talks with DP on an alliance in the upcoming Tokyo Prefecture elections.  This seems to indicate that she has national ambitions.  If her goal is to get the most number of seats in the upcoming Tokyo Prefecture election, running a Third Pole campaign that captures LDP JRP and DP votes is the best way which at the same time would destroy DP in Tokyo.  Of course doing that would cut her off from capturing national power since the experience of Hashimoto's JRP of 2012-2016 has demonstrated that while JRP can capture some LDP and a good chunk of DP votes it could not displace LDP-KP nor destroy the DP completely which makes JRP a regional Osaka party and a LDP B-team.  By trying to form an alliance with DP, Koike seems to be risking angering LDP but at the benefit of a potential long-term alliance with DP and perhaps even JCP to displace LDP-KP at the national level with perhaps her as PM.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I don't really follow Japanese politics but I am curious why is LDP so popular without any opposition?
Is Japan really that right-wing?  How do young people vote?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't really follow Japanese politics but I am curious why is LDP so popular without any opposition?
Is Japan really that right-wing?  How do young people vote?

Last time, young voters (including the newly enfranchised 18 and 19 year olds) swung quite heavily behind the LDP (50 percent of them voted for the LDP and its junior ally NK). Coming into political conscienceness in the chaos of the DPJ era probably soured their opinion of the opposition. And politics in general, which is why vote turnout for the youth is pretty lousy. (The LDP literally released a manga starring a high school girl learning the importance of voting which is a pretty Japanese thing to happen).

[jaichind]

I don't really follow Japanese politics but I am curious why is LDP so popular without any opposition?
Is Japan really that right-wing?  How do young people vote?

The Youth vote Right, mainly LDP.  LDP wins for 2 reasons.  The center-left opposition does not present a vision of the future other than preserving the status quo.  At least LDP and Right opposition Third Pole parties does present a vision. Also LDP dominates local politics because local governments needs LDP dominated central government subsidies to survive which in turn means that LDP has a very rich bench of local politicians to run for national office.  Since Japanese vote by personality and not party this gives the LDP a big edge.

[jaichind]

The newspaper Fuji came out with a Tokyo Prefecture projection:  It has

LDP               54
KP                 23

Koike Party    15
JRP                 1

DP                14
SNT                3  
Independent   1

JCP               16

Whereas 2013 it was

LDP             59
KP               23

JRP               2
YP                7

DP             15
DP rebel       1
SNT             3

JCP             17

So Fuji mostly projects that Koike Party will take over the old Third Pole vote of 2013 (JRP and YP) cut a bit into DP and LDP vote but nothing dramatic.  If these were the results then it is critical that Koike does need to form an alliance with DP in order to take control of the Tokyo Prefectural assembly.  The word is her plans is try to form an anti-LDP majority bloc post election based on Koike Party, DP and KP with outside support from JCP.  

[jaichind]

Some updates, especially on the Tokyo and Koike situation.

The original plan was for Tokyo Gov Koike, who on paper is still part of LDP, to form an alliance with her new party  (都民ファーストの会) which in English is Tokyo People First Association (TPFA) with DP and KP to contest and win a majority in the upcoming Tokyo Prefecture elections in the Summer.  KP already defected from LDP to join forces with Koike.  Tokyo is the second prefecture where the local KP has broken its alliance with LDP (Okinawa is the other prefecture.) 

Then came the 千代田区(Chiyoda Ward) head election.  The current LDP incumbent had defected to the Koike camp and ran as a pro-Koike candidate.  The Tokyo LDP and DP split into pro-Koike and anti-Koike camps.  The anti-Koike LDP ran their own candidate while the anti-Koike DP faction joined JCP to back a center-left candidate.  The result was a landslide win for the pro-Koike incumbent

Pro-Koike incumbent      65.2%  (backed by pro-Koike LDP factions, pro-Koike DP factions, KP)
LDP                               18.0%  (backed by anti-Koike LDP factions)
Center-left Ind.              15.8%  (backed by anti-Koike DP factions, JCP)

As a result of this win and given the fact that Renho is not gaining traction in the polls and running into problems within the DP, Koike pretty much called off the alliance with DP and will pretty much run TPFA in alliance with KP in the Summer Tokyo Prefecture elections and calling for pro-Koike LDP and DP factions to join TPFA and run under her banner.  LDP and DP are splintering badly in Tokyo as large blocs of LDP and DP factions and supporters are rushing to join TPFA as Koike's popularity surges in Tokyo and also at the national level.

The latest projection by Nikkan Gendai has it at

TPFA        59
KP           23

LDP         23

JRP           0

DP            6
SNT          1

JCP         15

Whereas 2013 it was

LDP             59
KP               23

JRP               2
YP                7

DP             15
DP rebel       1
SNT             3

JCP             17

With KP and JCP mostly keeping their base but TPFA taking over a good part of the LDP DP and JRP vote base, wiping out JRP and almost wiping out DP along the way while LDP is reduced to a rump of itself.

[jaichind]

It is totally possible if Koike wins a solid majority in the Tokyo Prefecture elections in the Summer it might trigger her to go national and try to create a Koike natoinal Third Pole party which would eat into the LDP and DP votes alike.  

In 2016 Upper House elections the PR vote was

LDP+
LDP       35.91%
KP         13.52%

Third Pole
ORA        9.20%
PJK         1.31%
NPR        1.04%
HRP        0.65%

Center-Left
DP        20.98%
SDP        2.74%
PLP         1.91%
VPA        0.89%

JCP      10.74%

Which in historical context of looking at PR vote share by bloc (LDP+, Third Pole, Center-Left, JCP)

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74

Assuming that Renho make a recovery and is able to gain some traction as a viable opposition leader and at least maintain what DP achieved in 2016 and Koike does not go national  a back of the envelope of what the next Lower House election (2018?) PR vote share would be

LDP+
LDP       37.69%
KP         13.11%

Third Pole
JRP         9.23%
PJK         0.65%
HRP        0.52%

Center-Left
DP        22.12%
SDP        2.48%
LP          2.27%

JCP       11.11%

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2018?     50.80              10.40             26.87            11.11

But if Koike remains popular and creates a national version of the Koike Party there might be large realignments.  KP which have become more negative about its alliance with LDP over time will most likely break off its alliance with LDP for an alliance with the Koike Party.   PJK which is fairly anti-Koike will most likely ally with LDP.  JRP might also join the Koike Party-KP alliance.  The Center-Left parties most likely will continue their alliance with JCP in response.  Turnout would surge across the board which will help Koike and hurt KP.  JCP in theory loses vote share but the JCP core would also turnout in force in such a realignment environment.  

My guess on what the PR vote would look like in such a situation would be

LDP+
LDP       28.80%
PJK          0.65%

Third Pole
Koike    20.31%
KP         12.22%
JRP         5.26%
HRP        0.49%

Center-Left
DP        17.39%
SDP        2.24%
LP          1.48%

JCP       11.08%

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2018?     29.45              38.28             21.11            11.08

Which means the Center-Left plus JCP will fall to 2012 2013 levels of support when Third Pole parties JRP and YP were at their strongest. 

Assuming that Koike Party and KP forms an alliance and the Center-Left parties from an alliance with JCP then the base vote for each bloc in FPTP seats would look like

LDP-PJK               29.45%
Koike-KP              32.53%
DP-SDP-LP-JCP    32.19%
JRP                       5.26%

A three way battle royal between the three blocs!!  Of course if JRP joins Koike-KP then it will be

LDP-PJK               29.45%
Koike-KP-JRP       37.79%
DP-SDP-LP-JCP    32.19%

With Koike bloc having the advantage.

Note that in either case the LDP-PJK will do better in the FPTP seats then these votes shares would imply.  LDP still has strong grassroots organizations so they will still have some natural advantages in candidate selection.  Also LDP support is more concentrated in Southern Japan where they will swill sweep the FPTP seats despite the Koike Party split.  Most likely in either case LDP will emerge as the largest party but for sure not a majority.  

A lot of possible action depending on what happens in the Tokyo Prefecture elections in the Summer.
  

[jaichind]

LDP will change its by-laws this weekend to allow Abe have a third consecutive term as LDP president which means he can in theory stay on as LDP President and PM until 2021. 

Abe is running into a scandal where a new Shinto based elementary school which was suppose to be called the "Shinzo Abe Elementary School" and has Abe's wife as honorary principle in Osaka has been exposed to have bought its land for 10% of the market price from the government.  Abe claims he has nothing to do with this sale while the optics are not good there is no smoking gun/

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

LDP will change its by-laws this weekend to allow Abe have a third consecutive term as LDP president which means he can in theory stay on as LDP President and PM until 2021.

Sad!

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Not great!

[jaichind]

Nikkei Shimbun poll

Will Abe be able to continue to be PM until 2021

Yes    63%
No     28%

Who deserves to be PM after next election

Abe                        21%
Koike                      16%
Koizumi Junior        16%

Note that Renho is nowhere on this list.  If LDP/Abe is to be beaten anytime in the next couple of election cycles it will have to be beaten internally. 

[jaichind]

Koike is spending a lot of time looking into mismanagement by ex-governor Ishihara Senior and at the same time targeting Ishihara Junior who is also the leader of the LDP in Tokyo.  LDP General Secretary 二階 俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) made a statement that the the LDP has taken note that Tokyo Governor and nominally LDP member Koike has been making moves to create a new party to challenge LDP in Tokyo and there will have to be action taken to deal with this.  It is likely that LDP has concluded that a LDP-Koike truce/deal is no longer possible so eventually Koike will have to be expelled.

It is interesting that both Koike and Nikai were part of Ozawa's NFP back in the mid 1990s, and then both followed Ozawa into his new LP in the late 1990s.  When Ozawa took LP out of its alliance with LDP in 2000 Nikai  split with Ozawa and formed NCP with Koike following him.  Eventually NCP merged into LDP with both Koike and Nikai joining LDP (for Nikai it is re-joining.)  Both has been seen as enemies of Abe within LDP but Nikai made his peace with Abe recently and as part of that alliance was given the role of LDP General Secretary.

[Antonio the Sixth]

(The LDP literally released a manga starring a high school girl learning the importance of voting which is a pretty Japanese thing to happen).

That's actually pretty awesome. Any chance there's a translation available online, out of curiosity?

[jaichind]

Weekly Post magazine Tokyo prefecture election projection

TPFA        58
KP           21

LDP         26

JRP           1

DP            7
SNT          3

JCP         13

Which is a slight uptick for the Center-Left parties of DP and SNT.   If these were the results and TPFA(aka Koike Party)-KP alliance holds, then I think for the first time ever since the founding of the LDP a LDP led bloc would have less than 25% of any Japanese prefecture assembly.  Even though there are cases where the LDP led bloc (LDP plus various de facto LDP independents plus LDP allies like  KP) have not formed the majority in a prefecture assembly, they would form a strong opposition and have at least 30% of the assembly seats.  Now LDP is en route to being reduced to around 20% of the Tokyo assembly seats plus losing KP as an ally to Koike.

[jaichind]

Latest NHK poll has Abe Cabinet approval dropping to 51/31 which is around where it was back in Dec 2016.  Abe has lost the bump he got from his meeting with Trump.



Main reason is the continued questions over the construction of the Shinto Moritomo Gakuen School (AKA the Shinzo Abe School before it got renamed when the scandal broke)  in Osaka and how the the school was able to purchase the land for the school for 10% of the market price.



Osaka might refuse approval of new Moritomo Gakuen school opening due to suspicious paperwork that was submitted by the school.

The kindergarten equivalent of this new elementary school was known for it revisionist school curriculum which involving children singing military songs from the WWII era.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The kindergarten equivalent of this new elementary school was known for it revisionist school curriculum which involving children singing military songs from the WWII era.

The late Umberto Eco once said something about sometimes getting together with friends his own age to sing Mussolini-era patriotic songs together, because it was what they grew up with and they couldn't quite eradicate their nostalgia for it even though they knew full well that what the songs were sung about was evil.

Somehow, I don't have nearly as much sympathy for what's going on here.

[jaichind]

The kindergarten equivalent of this new elementary school was known for it revisionist school curriculum which involving children singing military songs from the WWII era.

The late Umberto Eco once said something about sometimes getting together with friends his own age to sing Mussolini-era patriotic songs together, because it was what they grew up with and they couldn't quite eradicate their nostalgia for it even though they knew full well that what the songs were sung about was evil.

Somehow, I don't have nearly as much sympathy for what's going on here.

This is mostly for financial reasons.  Education in Japan is heavily regulated to ensure consistency across the different prefectures.  As a result private schools need an angle to survive.  This school decided to tap into the latent revisionist population and tap into money by getting them to put their kids into their school for money.  This is why they also tried the "Shinzo Abe School" strategy  to try to generate publicity for the school. The real mistake for Abe here is allowing his wife to accept the position of "Honorary Principle" of this private school.

[jaichind]

Number of candidates for Tokyo prefecture elections of 127 seats



TPFA (aka Koike Party) will nominate at least 64 candidates while KP will nominate 23 candidates.  TPFA and KP will have a full blown alliance as both parties will recommend the candidates of the other party.
There will be post-election alliance between TPFA-KP and DP which will nominate 36 candidates of which 4 already left DP to try to run for TPFA.   TPFA's main target will be LDP which will nominate 54 candidates.  In this election Koike and TPFA seems to have a target of breaking LDP in Tokyo Prefecture assembly.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I know idealogy is a peculiar thing in Japan, but how should we characterise Koike's governing style? Any interesting flagship policies?

[jaichind]

I know idealogy is a peculiar thing in Japan, but how should we characterise Koike's governing style? Any interesting flagship policies?

Very similar to Shinzo Abe: strong Japanese conservative nationalist/revisionist, strong supporter of women in the workplace (mainly to add to Japanese economic power just like Abe), and supporter of neoliberal economic reforms.

Main difference with Abe is that Abe mostly talks about neoliberal economic reforms but pretty much does nothing since he is still linked to the LDP clientelist machine.   Koike, it seems, is actually trying to tear down the Tokyo LDP political machine and with it a set of neoliberal economic policies.  Of course the Tokyo LDP which right now is led by Ishihara clan which are her deadly enemy makes it easy for her to take on that policy position. 

Despite being very close ideologically to Abe she has a poor relationship with him which eventually lead her to bolt from the LDP.  She seems to be personally a lot closer to her old mentor Ozawa (who used to have policy positions in the 1990s similar to hers but has drifted Leftward over the years) and former LDP PM Koizumi.  Many suspect the Koike rebellion is being backed in the shadows by Ozawa and Koizumi who both have their ax to grind with Abe.

[Lord Halifax]

I know idealogy is a peculiar thing in Japan, but how should we characterise Koike's governing style? Any interesting flagship policies?

Very similar to Shinzo Abe: strong Japanese conservative nationalist/revisionist, strong supporter of women in the workplace (mainly to add to Japanese economic power just like Abe), and supporter of neoliberal economic reforms.

Main difference with Abe is that Abe mostly talks about neoliberal economic reforms but pretty much does nothing since he is still linked to the LDP clientelist machine.   Koike, it seems, is actually trying to tear down the Tokyo LDP political machine and with it a set of neoliberal economic policies.  Of course the Tokyo LDP which right now is led by Ishihara clan which are her deadly enemy makes it easy for her to take on that policy position. 

Despite being very close ideologically to Abe she has a poor relationship with him which eventually lead her to bolt from the LDP.  She seems to be personally a lot closer to her old mentor Ozawa (who used to have policy positions in the 1990s similar to hers but has drifted Leftward over the years) and former LDP PM Koizumi.  Many suspect the Koike rebellion is being backed in the shadows by Ozawa and Koizumi who both have their ax to grind with Abe.

Unclear sentence. Is she trying to "tear down" neoliberalism, or is she in favor of neoliberal reforms?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I know idealogy is a peculiar thing in Japan, but how should we characterise Koike's governing style? Any interesting flagship policies?

Very similar to Shinzo Abe: strong Japanese conservative nationalist/revisionist, strong supporter of women in the workplace (mainly to add to Japanese economic power just like Abe), and supporter of neoliberal economic reforms.

Main difference with Abe is that Abe mostly talks about neoliberal economic reforms but pretty much does nothing since he is still linked to the LDP clientelist machine.   Koike, it seems, is actually trying to tear down the Tokyo LDP political machine and with it a set of neoliberal economic policies.  Of course the Tokyo LDP which right now is led by Ishihara clan which are her deadly enemy makes it easy for her to take on that policy position. 

Despite being very close ideologically to Abe she has a poor relationship with him which eventually lead her to bolt from the LDP.  She seems to be personally a lot closer to her old mentor Ozawa (who used to have policy positions in the 1990s similar to hers but has drifted Leftward over the years) and former LDP PM Koizumi.  Many suspect the Koike rebellion is being backed in the shadows by Ozawa and Koizumi who both have their ax to grind with Abe.

Unclear sentence. Is she trying to "tear down" neoliberalism, or is she in favor of neoliberal reforms?

She's in favor of them.

I'm of the opinion that Japan, for cultural reasons, is one of only a couple G20 countries where economic liberalization would likely do some good for most people, so I dislike Koike a bit less than I probably "should", and certainly less than I dislike Abe.

[DC Al Fine]

I know idealogy is a peculiar thing in Japan, but how should we characterise Koike's governing style? Any interesting flagship policies?

Very similar to Shinzo Abe: strong Japanese conservative nationalist/revisionist, strong supporter of women in the workplace (mainly to add to Japanese economic power just like Abe), and supporter of neoliberal economic reforms.

Main difference with Abe is that Abe mostly talks about neoliberal economic reforms but pretty much does nothing since he is still linked to the LDP clientelist machine.   Koike, it seems, is actually trying to tear down the Tokyo LDP political machine and with it a set of neoliberal economic policies.  Of course the Tokyo LDP which right now is led by Ishihara clan which are her deadly enemy makes it easy for her to take on that policy position. 

Despite being very close ideologically to Abe she has a poor relationship with him which eventually lead her to bolt from the LDP.  She seems to be personally a lot closer to her old mentor Ozawa (who used to have policy positions in the 1990s similar to hers but has drifted Leftward over the years) and former LDP PM Koizumi.  Many suspect the Koike rebellion is being backed in the shadows by Ozawa and Koizumi who both have their ax to grind with Abe.

Unclear sentence. Is she trying to "tear down" neoliberalism, or is she in favor of neoliberal reforms?

She's in favor of them.

I'm of the opinion that Japan, for cultural reasons, is one of only a couple G20 countries where economic liberalization would likely do some good for most people, so I dislike Koike a bit less than I probably "should", and certainly less than I dislike Abe.

Could you elaborate on this?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I know idealogy is a peculiar thing in Japan, but how should we characterise Koike's governing style? Any interesting flagship policies?

Very similar to Shinzo Abe: strong Japanese conservative nationalist/revisionist, strong supporter of women in the workplace (mainly to add to Japanese economic power just like Abe), and supporter of neoliberal economic reforms.

Main difference with Abe is that Abe mostly talks about neoliberal economic reforms but pretty much does nothing since he is still linked to the LDP clientelist machine.   Koike, it seems, is actually trying to tear down the Tokyo LDP political machine and with it a set of neoliberal economic policies.  Of course the Tokyo LDP which right now is led by Ishihara clan which are her deadly enemy makes it easy for her to take on that policy position. 

Despite being very close ideologically to Abe she has a poor relationship with him which eventually lead her to bolt from the LDP.  She seems to be personally a lot closer to her old mentor Ozawa (who used to have policy positions in the 1990s similar to hers but has drifted Leftward over the years) and former LDP PM Koizumi.  Many suspect the Koike rebellion is being backed in the shadows by Ozawa and Koizumi who both have their ax to grind with Abe.

Unclear sentence. Is she trying to "tear down" neoliberalism, or is she in favor of neoliberal reforms?

She's in favor of them.

I'm of the opinion that Japan, for cultural reasons, is one of only a couple G20 countries where economic liberalization would likely do some good for most people, so I dislike Koike a bit less than I probably "should", and certainly less than I dislike Abe.

Could you elaborate on this?

Japanese middle-class culture is heavily oriented around company and workplace loyalty, to the point where many people with what would in other countries be seen as very good jobs have an everyday life that's a grinding ordeal thanks to things like all-but-expected overtime work and endless weeknight drinking parties with one's colleagues. People working in more precarious or casualized sectors do have all the problems that come with precarity and casualization, but they also tend to have more freedom in how they spend their time and in their cultural pursuits (although Japan currently lacks the cultural infrastructure for most of them to use this freedom wisely).

[jaichind]

I know idealogy is a peculiar thing in Japan, but how should we characterise Koike's governing style? Any interesting flagship policies?

Very similar to Shinzo Abe: strong Japanese conservative nationalist/revisionist, strong supporter of women in the workplace (mainly to add to Japanese economic power just like Abe), and supporter of neoliberal economic reforms.

Main difference with Abe is that Abe mostly talks about neoliberal economic reforms but pretty much does nothing since he is still linked to the LDP clientelist machine.   Koike, it seems, is actually trying to tear down the Tokyo LDP political machine and with it a set of neoliberal economic policies.  Of course the Tokyo LDP which right now is led by Ishihara clan which are her deadly enemy makes it easy for her to take on that policy position. 

Despite being very close ideologically to Abe she has a poor relationship with him which eventually lead her to bolt from the LDP.  She seems to be personally a lot closer to her old mentor Ozawa (who used to have policy positions in the 1990s similar to hers but has drifted Leftward over the years) and former LDP PM Koizumi.  Many suspect the Koike rebellion is being backed in the shadows by Ozawa and Koizumi who both have their ax to grind with Abe.

Unclear sentence. Is she trying to "tear down" neoliberalism, or is she in favor of neoliberal reforms?

Sorry.  What I meant is that Koike wants to wash out the LDP from Tokyo and usher in neoliberal policies.  Not sure if that is her true plan or just an excuse to rally the mainly economic center right Tokyo voter based to vote out the LDP and for her.