Japan General Discussion

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I was just thinking back today to after the 2015 British general election when Cameron called Abe and said something like "here's to another five years working together". Abe didn't respond because he didn't want to come across as too eager to change the rules for the LDP leadership to stay in power longer. Now, Cameron is already out and Abe may very well still be in office in three years.

[jaichind]

List of candidates in each district (number if number of MLA to be elected) so far for Tokyo Prefecture elections

Blue - LDP
Pink - KP
Red - DP
Orange - JCP
Green - TPFA
Grey - Other (includes TPFA backed independents and JRP which are allied with LDP)

A bunch of DP MLAs are running as TPFA backed independents.  

DP over-nominating candidates in some key 6- or 8- seat districts.  At this stage DP should not bother with 1- 2- or 3- districts unless the DP candidate is very strong and should not nominate more than 2 candidates in any districts.

TPFA looks like still lacks good candidates in some of the 6- and 8- seat districts.  

[jaichind]

Look at the candidate lists for now and making some assumptions on a few districts TPFA and JCP should be nominating candidates I can make my back-of-the-envelope projection of the Tokyo Prefecture elections on 7/2.
                  
LDP mainly retained most of their MLAs to run for re-election.  Some LDP MLAs did defect as did a lot of DP MLAs.  Most of them are running as independents with TPFA backing.   In urban areas there seems to be almost almost no defections from DP or LDP to TPFA.  So TPFA will have to win based on its brand appeal there versus taking over the political machines of defecting MLAs.  It is in rural areas where such defections are significant.  The main problem there is the majority of these rural districts are 1- 2- or 3- seat districts where these defectors then are fighting with the TFPA recruited candidate in a 4 way battle between LDP, TPFA, TPFA backed defector from LDP or DP, and JCP.  Often these battles are split in such a way as to ensure that LDP does win a seat from the 2- and 3- seat districts.

So with the LDP machine mostly intact in urban areas where one expects a large swing from LDP to TPFA and damage to LDP limited and in rural areas where TPFA did get some defectors but a crowed field plus a smaller swing toward TPFA also limits gains.

As a result the TPFA landslide the polls keeps on talking about does not materialize although TPFA bloc plus KP should win a narrow majority and LDP lives to fight another day.


                                 Contested    Win
TPFA total                       57          45
  TPFA                             37          31
  TPFA (ex-DP)                  2            2
  TPFA (ex-LDP)                1            1
  TPFA (ex-JRP)                 1            1
  TPFA (ex-YP)                  3            3
  Ind (ex-DP)                  10            4
  Ind (ex-LDP)                  2            2
KP                                 23          23

LDP                               60          39
JRP                                 6            0

DP                                22            5
DP rebel                          1            0
TSN                                4            3
SDP                                1            0
JCP                               36          12

[jaichind]

It is interesting to track 2013 Tokyo prefecture incumbents and where they ended up from DP, YP and JRP.

In 2013
15 DPJ
7 YP
2 JRP
1 DPJ rebel
were elected.

Now we can track where they went.
15 DPJ -> 6 will run for re-election with the DP ticket.  3 left DP and joined TPFA and will be running as TPFA, and 4 left DP and will run as TPFA backed independents, 1 will run as a DPJ rebel, 1 retired from politics.
7 YP -> 3 joined DP and will run on DP ticket.  3 became independent and then all joined TPFA and will run on the TPFA ticket,  1 joined DP and will run for DP at the national level and will not run for re-election.
2 JRP -> 1 joined DP and then left DP to run as TPFA backed independent, 1 will run for re-election under JRP
1 DPJ rebel - will run as a TPFA backed independent.

[jaichind]

For Tokyo Prefecture elections I noticed TPFA engage in a certain nomination pattern to try to take down LDP which is low risk but high reward.  It involved the various rural 2- seat districts.  There are 15 2- seat districts.  It seems TPFA-KP alliance are trying in 8 of them to win both seats which is usually hard.

In almost all these 2- seat districts, the candidates are almost always in 2013

1. LDP  elected
2. DPJ   elected
3. JCP
4. JRP or YP

In 8 of these 15 what TPFA-KP are doing is to nominate a TPFA candidate with no experience but can use the Koike brand to pull in LDP voters.  Then in almost all these cases the DP incumbent who has local organization support left DP (to avoid the DP negative brand in rural areas) and run as a TPFA backed independent to pull in the DPJ and non-LDP vote.  This creates the situation where it becomes

1. TPFA
2. TPFA backed ex-DP independent  
3. LDP
4. JCP

Where the old DPJ incumbent running with TPFA support will squeeze the JCP vote while the Koike brand will take enough of the LDP vote as well as the JRP/YP vote for the two TPFA candidates to win and eject the LDP.  I rate the chances of this working to be low and in my back-of-the-envelope projections has TPFA pulling off 2 out of 2 a total of 0 times out of 8.  

Of course if there is a anti-LDP wave then this will work.  This strategy is there to ensure that the candidates are there to take advantage of a collapse of the LDP if it were to take place.

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval stabilizing at around 55%



Party support mostly stable for LDP with DP falling over time.  Renho's days are numbered.

[Lachi]

I like how no party would be the biggest opposition if it was an actual party XD

[jaichind]

Asahi Weekly asked two political analysts to project the Tokyo Prefecture elections.  They are 角谷浩一(Kakutani Koichi) 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)

 They came up with




                 Kakutani                Matsuda
LDP              43-45                   27-30
KP                   23                        23
TPFA             40-45                   58-62
JCP                  13                      11-14
DP                  0-3                        1-2
TSN                  1                         1-2
JRP                   0                          0
Ind.                  0                          0

Kakutani focused on poor quality and inexperience of TPFA candidates and that they were nominated too late in the election process while Matsuda focused on the anti-LDP wave in Tokyo to carry TPFA to victory. Kakutani  warned that it is possible that TPFA-KP will fail to win a majority an that Koike will have to run back to making deal with LDP to get her agenda through after the election.

My projection seems to be somewhere between the two where although closer to Kakutani where I mostly assumed the anti-LDP wave will carry TPFA in urban areas while in rural areas the LDP quality candidate will win out.  It also seems I am much more positive on DP and TSN then both of them are.  At lot of it are based on the fact that TPFA is conservative in its nomination strategy in some districts where then I assume the anti-LDP vote will flow DP and TSN way.  If TPFA nominates more candidates then DP and TSN will be sunk and mostly to the advantage of LDP.

[Vega]

I was just thinking back today to after the 2015 British general election when Cameron called Abe and said something like "here's to another five years working together". Abe didn't respond because he didn't want to come across as too eager to change the rules for the LDP leadership to stay in power longer. Now, Cameron is already out and Abe may very well still be in office in three years.

When will the heat be on for Abe to change the rules? This year or next right?

[jaichind]

I was just thinking back today to after the 2015 British general election when Cameron called Abe and said something like "here's to another five years working together". Abe didn't respond because he didn't want to come across as too eager to change the rules for the LDP leadership to stay in power longer. Now, Cameron is already out and Abe may very well still be in office in three years.

When will the heat be on for Abe to change the rules? This year or next right?

LDP already changed the rules.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/LDP-passes-rule-change-that-could-see-Abe-remain-PM-until-2021

Abe just has to win the next election and he can be PM into the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and into 2021

[jaichind]

Abe bring up Constitutional reform was enough to push down his cabinet approval rating. Still at an elevated level. 



And it does not help DP support (Purple) which are still falling

[Lachi]

I was just thinking back today to after the 2015 British general election when Cameron called Abe and said something like "here's to another five years working together". Abe didn't respond because he didn't want to come across as too eager to change the rules for the LDP leadership to stay in power longer. Now, Cameron is already out and Abe may very well still be in office in three years.

When will the heat be on for Abe to change the rules? This year or next right?

LDP already changed the rules.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/LDP-passes-rule-change-that-could-see-Abe-remain-PM-until-2021

Abe just has to win the next election and he can be PM into the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and into 2021

Oh god no...

[Lachi]

Question.

What has cause the Democrats to just collapse this damn quickly?

[jaichind]

Question.

What has cause the Democrats to just collapse this damn quickly?

Mostly because Renho is not seen as politically credible. She has not been able to unite her party behind the issues of nuclear power, Constitutional revision and alliance with JCP.  The Rengo labor unions are opposed to Renho's policies of being against nuclear power and alliance with JCP.  The DP pro-constitutional revisionist bloc are also opposed to Renho's hard-line position on Constitutional revision.  Finally DP under Renho is seen as having no vision of its own but focused on taking down Abe based on various scandals which all end up as having less water than what the DP make it out to be.

[Lachi]

So basically, the Democrats need a more appealing, comprimising leader? Or is it more complex than that.

[jaichind]

So basically, the Democrats need a more appealing, comprimising leader? Or is it more complex than that.

It is structural.  LDP voters vote LDP for both ideological and clientelism reasons while DP and JCP voters tend to vote for ideological reasons.  Both LDP and DP have a wide ideological spectrum but since DP voters vote DP for ideological reasons only this is a problem for DP and not LDP.   Furthermore because the lower middle and working class voters tend to vote KP and JCP the way to a construct a non-LDP majority is in theory DP-KP-JCP.  But KP and JCP hate each other and would never appear in the same alliance.  KP also crave social respectability and as a result gravitate toward LDP.   This means for DP to assemble an anti-LDP majority would require DP-JCP-LDP defectors.  But those LDP defectors tend to be right of center which adds to the wide ideological spectrum problem DP has.   As a result the only way LDP can be beaten is for LDP to split (1993) or be taken down in an anti-incumbency wave (2009.)    But because of the clientelist nature of the LDP base as long as LDP can hold together after it is  out of power all it has to do is to wait for the grand anti-LDP to fall apart and then LDP can come back to power.

At this stage the best way to take down LDP is for a Third Pole (anti-LDP center-Right forces) alliance to form with KP with outside support of DP.  This is exactly what is taking place in Tokyo.

[Lachi]

I find something interesting about the General elections in Japan.

I notice that even in normal elections (LDP landslides), Aichi stays pretty reliably Democrat for the most part, with them winning nearly half the seats a lot of the time, and historically sweeping the prefecture. I have no clue why, and I've tried looking into it, but not really finding anything.

[jaichind]

With Constitutional reform on the agenda the Abe cabinet approval rating has been heading downward toward 50% where it was last year in July when it won the 2016 Upper House elections.

[jaichind]

I find something interesting about the General elections in Japan.

I notice that even in normal elections (LDP landslides), Aichi stays pretty reliably Democrat for the most part, with them winning nearly half the seats a lot of the time, and historically sweeping the prefecture. I have no clue why, and I've tried looking into it, but not really finding anything.

Well it is more about the fact that LDP historically does poorly in urban hubs (like Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya which is in Aichi) and does well in rural areas.  So Aichi which has Nagoya tends to be more hostile historically than prefectures that are mostly rural.  It does not mean these urban centers lean Left but tend to be hostile to LDP's pork barrow politics.  In fact all three area tens to be more friendly toward libertarian neoliberal politics.  So Third Pole parties (non-LDP right wing parties) tend to do well in these areas.  DPJ used to be strong in all areas but in Osaka it has been displaced by JRP and in Tokyo it is in the middle of being displaced by TPFA.  In Aichi a Nagoya-based Right-Libertarian DPJ splinter TCJ has emerged last few years and has emerged to be a treat to DP position in Aichi.  LDP are still weak in these areas but if the anti-LDP vote is split between JCP, DP and Third Pole, LDP still does well.  The main threat to LDP in these areas are a possible alliance between KP and the local Third Pole alternative.

[jaichind]

Tōru Hashimoto retired as policy adviser for JRP, a party he founded, so he can be more "neutral" going forward.  Being that he is only 47 I doubt this is the end for  Hashimoto in politics.  It is totally possible he will reemerge in the LDP camp running either for Governor of another prefecture or run for LDP in national politics.   Hashimoto is on very good terms with Abe and back in 2012 before Abe unexpectedly won the LDP Presidential race   Hashimoto was trying to recruit Abe to co-lead the new JRP party.

[Tintrlvr]

I find something interesting about the General elections in Japan.

I notice that even in normal elections (LDP landslides), Aichi stays pretty reliably Democrat for the most part, with them winning nearly half the seats a lot of the time, and historically sweeping the prefecture. I have no clue why, and I've tried looking into it, but not really finding anything.

The basic answer is that Nagoya is a more manufacturing-focused (especially automobile manufacturing) urban area, in contrast to Tokyo and Osaka, which are more focused on knowledge industries. Therefore, Nagoya is relatively fertile ground for the DPJ's soft center-left and broadly pro-union positions as well as for its history of social democratic parties that are the ancestors of the DPJ. All of the big cities have a more tenuous relationship with the LDP than the countryside, but Tokyo and Osaka are less connected to union politics and historical support for social democratic parties.

This does not mean (unlike in the West, especially the US) that Nagoya is poor. Aichi has higher per-capita income than Osaka, for example (though much lower than Tokyo, which is much wealthier than anywhere else).

I suspect that the fact that Nagoya is a much more recently prominent urban center than Osaka-Kyoto and Tokyo, having only become significant in the late 19th century, plays a role as well, with fewer culturally conservative voters (of the sort who think Japanese imperialism was not such a bad thing) as a result, but this is harder to suss out.

[jaichind]

I find something interesting about the General elections in Japan.

I notice that even in normal elections (LDP landslides), Aichi stays pretty reliably Democrat for the most part, with them winning nearly half the seats a lot of the time, and historically sweeping the prefecture. I have no clue why, and I've tried looking into it, but not really finding anything.

The basic answer is that Nagoya is a more manufacturing-focused (especially automobile manufacturing) urban area, in contrast to Tokyo and Osaka, which are more focused on knowledge industries. Therefore, Nagoya is relatively fertile ground for the DPJ's soft center-left and broadly pro-union positions as well as for its history of social democratic parties that are the ancestors of the DPJ. All of the big cities have a more tenuous relationship with the LDP than the countryside, but Tokyo and Osaka are less connected to union politics and historical support for social democratic parties.

This does not mean (unlike in the West, especially the US) that Nagoya is poor. Aichi has higher per-capita income than Osaka, for example (though much lower than Tokyo, which is much wealthier than anywhere else).

I suspect that the fact that Nagoya is a much more recently prominent urban center than Osaka-Kyoto and Tokyo, having only become significant in the late 19th century, plays a role as well, with fewer culturally conservative voters (of the sort who think Japanese imperialism was not such a bad thing) as a result, but this is harder to suss out.

Very well put.  In fact the 4 largest prefectures in terms of population and economy are Tokyo, Osaka, Kanagawa, and then Aichi.  Aichi actually has the third highest per capita GDP of all the prefectures behind only Tokyo and Shizuoka.   Osaka and Kanagawa are both around average or below average in terms of GDP per capita.

[jaichind]

Average approval rating for Abe closing in on 50%

[BuckeyeNut]

Akihito to abdicate the thrown thanks to the Diet.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Akihito to abdicate the thrown thanks to the Diet.

Good for Akihito and terrible news for Naruhito--nobody deserves the life the Kunai-chō creeps have in store for him.