Japan General Discussion

[MaxQue]

Also, there is a bus with flags of UK, Germany, France and Canada (the G7 minus Italy?) for some reason.

[jaichind]

Also, there is a bus with flags of UK, Germany, France and Canada (the G7 minus Italy?) for some reason.

The idea is that when USA's house is on fire, USA allies comes in and help but not Japan.  That is why security bill is necessary.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

He couldn't have found less disturbingly fleshlike representations of fire?

[jaichind]

He couldn't have found less disturbingly fleshlike representations of fire?

I think he needed to show that a fire in the USA house could spread to Japan so he needed a fire blob that can be folded so he can tilt the fire toward Japan without it falling off.

Seriously, this TV appearance, besides being mocked on the Japanese internet as childish, does not address the core Japanese public concern that this bill will lead Japanese self-defense forces to be deployed in all sorts of wild and crazy USA adventures like Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya etc etc.  The concern was never that Japanese public not want to aid USA if the USA homeland is under attack.

Abe did do something smart and showed the other USA Western allies in his props.  The only argument in his favor is the deep seeded Japanese view since the late 1800s that Japan should "Leave Asia and Join Europe." Back in the late 1800s is to make sure Japan does not become prey to European imperialism.  Now it is fear that the Asian balance of power is shifting dramatically against Japan.  Either way making the argument that Japan most not be part of Asia but put of the West has subliminal legs in Japan so Abe is quite smart in trying to tie Japan passing these bills to remain part of the West.

[jaichind]

Latest polls from

Yomiuri (most pro-LDP)

Abe Cabinet approval 43/49
Support Security Bill to pass current parliament  26/64

and

Nikkei (middle of the road)

Abe Cabinet approval 38/50
Support Security Bill to pass current parliament  26/57

Understand that the way the poll is phrased it most likely underestimate support for the Abe security bills.  Since it asks about support of passage in current parliament opponents will also include opponents that might not reject the bill but object to it on procedural grounds (not enough debate and compromise to take into account amendment ideas for opposition parities.)

[jaichind]

Seiko Noda (野田聖子) who is a senior women LDP Lower House MP came out against the new security bills.  She has been talked about as a possible challenger to Abe in the Sept LDP leadership election and a possible future first woman PM.  She claims that she does not, as of today, plan to challenge Abe but I guess she is hedging in case Abe's approval rating falls further and she can then challenge him as a liability for LDP as a dove.  She indicated that perhaps  Shigeru Ishiba (石破茂)  who himself is a hawk should challenge Abe in September. 

[jaichind]

I thought I write about the recent history of the Far Right Hawk parties in Japan which I find very interesting.

The latest batch of Far Right Hawk parties mostly starts with and ends with Takeo Hiranuma (平沼 赳夫) who was always on the LDP far right wing.  He left LDP in 2005 as a postal reform rebel and was elected as an independent even as the LDP-KP rode to victory in a landslide.  As LDP fortunes  waned in 2007-2008 he saw that the creation of a Far Right alternative to LDP could have legs.  As a result in 2008 he formed the Hiranuma Group (平沼グループ) which consisted the Far Right portions of the LDP postal reform rebels, various LDP rebel MPs or ex-MPs, plus a few DPJ and non-LDP hawks.  The Hiranuma Group ran in 2009 elections as an alliances of independents with mixed success winning 3 seats including Takeo Hiranuma himself as the DPJ cruised to a landslide of its own.  The other winner was Koizumi Ryuji(小泉龍司) and Kiuchi Minoru(城内実) both of whom were LDP postal reform rebels.  Otherwise only a couple of  Hiranuma Group won a sizable amount of votes and a few managed to drag down the LDP candidate by splitting the center-right vote base.  After the 2009 elections the Hiranuma Group was transformed into a party 国益と国民の生活を守る会 which means "Alliance to protect the national interest and the people's lives."

In 2010 Takeo Hiranuma decided to try to created a political realignment and created Sunrise Party of Japan (SPJ) based on the  "Alliance to protect the national interest and the people's lives."  Long time LDP Far Right leader Hiroyuki Sonoda (園田博之) left LDP to join SPJ as well as the old DPJ hawk Shingo Nishimura (西村眞悟) even as Koizumi Ryuji choose not to join SPJ and became an independent.   Behind the scenes the godfather of SPJ was of course long time LDP far right leader and Governor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishihara(石原慎太郎).  The SPJ did not do that well in the 2010 Upper House elections as the YP captured the anti-LDP and-DPJ vote bloc.  SPJ won around 2% of the PR vote and elected an MP Toranosuke Katayama (片山虎之助) who was an LDP Upper House MP but joined Hiranuma Group and then SPJ.

After the 2010 elections the SPJ formed a loose alliance with a more libertarian-hawkish LDP splinter New Renaissance Party (NRP) which also split from LDP in 2008 as well as LDP populist postal splinter party People's New Party (PNP) which was formed in 2005.  

In 2012 Takeo Hiranuma took the SPJ and followed the Shintaro Ishihara-Tōru Hashimoto deal to form JRP.  SPJ merged into JRP while PNP went back to its alliance with DPJ for the 2012 elections. Kiuchi Minoru choose to return to LDP instead of joining JRP. The 2012 elections had JRP winning a bunch of seats with many members of the SPJ now winning as JRP MPs with Takeo Hiranuma, Hiroyuki Sonoda, and Shingo Nishimura winning as MP in addition to Shintaro Ishihara among others.  Koizumi Ryuji also won as an pro-JRP independent.

In 2014 the Shintaro Ishihara-Tōru Hashimoto split was becoming obvious so JRP split into JIP led by Hashimoto and PFG led by Takeo Hiranuma (with Shintaro Ishihara as godfather of the PFG).  It seems that Shingo Nishimura refused to join PFG and instead re-created SPJ with himself as leader.  Then when the 2014 elections were called Shingo Nishimura decided to join PFG as a candidate since there was pretty much zero support for SPJ.  Takeo Hiranuma and Hiroyuki Sonoda were re-elected on the PFG ticket while Shingo Nishimura and Shintaro Ishihara were defeated.  Again, Koizumi Ryuji also won as an pro-FPG independent.  But overall FPG bombed in the 2014 election.

With the prospect of PFG dim after the 2014 election there was talk that Hiroyuki Sonoda might return to LDP.  In the end Hiroyuki Sonoda did leave PFG but in a surprise he joined and became to head of the re-created but leaderless SPJ.  After a few months it was clear that SPJ was going nowhere either and Hiroyuki Sonoda merged SPJ back into PFG.  At least now there is one united party that represents the Japanese Far Right.  PFG only has 2 seats in the lower house but 6 seats in the upper house since several former YP MPs choose not to join JIP when YP merged with JIP in 2014 instead joined FPG.

[jaichind]

In the first electoral test of LDP after the security bills became a significant issue the Sendai city (仙台市) council elections were held on this Sunday.  Sendai is the capital city of Miyagi Prefecture (宮城県) and the largest city in Northern Japan with a population greater than a million.  The city council elections are all multi-member constituencies with single non-transferable vote (SNTV).

Once one counts various independents with the parties they are associated with or allied with, LDP did suffer a setback in term of vote share but did not lose that much in terms of seats given DPJ and JCP did not nominate enough candidates to take advantage of the LDP vote share decline.

2015
Turnout 35.8%

                  Candidates     Elected      Vote share
LDP                 24               21               35.25%
KP                     9                 9               14.82%
JCP                    7                 7               14.19%
DPJ                 11               11                19.85%
SC                    5                 1                  4.00%
SDP                  6                 5                  7.99%
JIP                    2                 1                  2.68%
Ind.                  2                 0                  1.23%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        55  seats total

SC stands for 輝くまち or Shining City.  It is a post-YP regional party of  Miyagi Prefecture

2011 results
Turnout 40%

                  Candidates     Elected      Vote share
LDP                 25               22               39.88%
KP                     8                 8               13.67%
JCP                    7                 7               10.92%
DPJ                 15                 9                19.13%
YP                     6                 4                 7.37%
SDP                  6                 5                  7.17%
Ind.                  5                 0                  1.86%
----------------------------------------------------------------
                                        55 seats total

2007 results
Turnout 46.4%

                  Candidates     Elected      Vote share
LDP                 33               28               42.59%
KP                     8                 8               13.22%
JCP                    8                 6               10.28%
DPJ                 12               11                21.18%
SDP                  8                 6                  9.26%
Ind.                  7                 1                  3.48%
----------------------------------------------------------------
                                        60 seats total

Overall this election was a setback for LDP even as KP, DPJ and JCP gained ground from 2011.  The positive swing from 2011 for DPJ and negative swing for LDP from 2011 is more surprising given the continued fall in turnout from 40% to around 36%.  The LDP base is getting smaller relative to 2011.  It seems LDP knew that it would lose ground so it nominated less candidates than 2011 and as a result of gaining some votes from YP from 2011 the LDP only lost only one seat even as KP gained a seat.  KP only nominate candidates in local elections on sure things since that what KP really focuses on.  It would be a loss of face if KP nominated someone that did not end up winning.  So KP must have figured out that its fortunes was on the upswing for it to nominate 9 candidates instead of 8 in 2011.  The DPJ is almost back to 2007 levels of support since it was conservative in its nomination strategy (11 only versus 15 in 2011) DPJ won all 11 seats and its vote share most likely under-counted as it would have taken greater vote share had it nominated a couple of more candidates.  Had DPJ SDP and JCP nominated a couple of joint candidates they most likely could have taken away a couple of more LDP seats.   JIP and SC actually managed to capture a vote share similar to what YP captured in 2011 even as they could not replicate the seat count of YP in 2011.

So round one of the election test for LDP after the security bill became an issue has been a setback for LDP although KP growth made up for some of it.    If these results represent trends, one can expect more setback for LDP vote share relative to 2013-2014 and growth for DPJ and JCP votes share from the same period.

[jaichind]

Is a good chart that shows the Abe Cabinet approval rating over the last few months.  Note that 30% approval is labeled as the "danger threshold."

[Simfan34]

Yikes. I repeat what I said earlier:

Now is the time to distribute populist goodies to ease the edge and divert attention. Abe spent a lot of political capital getting this through, he has to build it up again.

[jaichind]

Yikes. I repeat what I said earlier:

Now is the time to distribute populist goodies to ease the edge and divert attention. Abe spent a lot of political capital getting this through, he has to build it up again.

We one usually hears from Abe high command is that they expect to stabilize approval rating at mid to high 30s for now.   Then Abe will run for LDP leadership in Sept 2015 and win.  Then he can reshuffle the cabinet to clean out a lot of dead wood and regain political capital that way.  They seem confident that Abe will enter 2016 in good shape and expect a solid victory in 2016.  The LDP seems to be fairly aggressive in its nomination strategy for 2016 Upper House elections which reflects this bullish view.

[Simfan34]

Abe has until 2018, right? Two three year stints as LDP president.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Abe has until 2018, right? Two three year stints as LDP president.

Right, although there's been some talk to the effect that he might try to change the party constitution to stay in longer. Even staying until 2018 would make him the second-longest serving postwar prime minister after Satō Eisaku.

Personally, I don't think he stays on very long past next year's upper house elections, but that's because I'm optimistic about both those elections and his sense of shame.

[Vega]

Abe has until 2018, right? Two three year stints as LDP president.

Right, although there's been some talk to the effect that he might try to change the party constitution to stay in longer. Even staying until 2018 would make him the second-longest serving postwar prime minister after Satō Eisaku.

Personally, I don't think he stays on very long past next year's upper house elections, but that's because I'm optimistic about both those elections and his sense of shame.

I doubt he changes the rules, too (even though they're inane). If he can even make it that long, I'll be very, very surprised.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Even if he does very well next year and rams constitutional revision through the Diet, I still think he probably resigns if/when the ensuing referendum fails.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Abe was heckled at the Hiroshima memorial.

[jaichind]

The next set of electoral battles in Japan will center around Iwate (岩手).  The one of the current 岩手 Upper House MPs elected in 2013 平野達男 announced a few months ago his intention to resign from the Upper Hose to run for 岩手 governor in early September.  平野達男 is an old Ozawa crony being in the Liberal Party then followed Ozawa into DPJ but in 2013 won his seat in a 4 way battle beating the DPJ, LDP and Ozawa backed PLP candidate.   The current 岩手 governor 達増拓也 was elected in 2007 and 2011 with DPJ/Ozawa support.  Earlier it seems that 平野達男 decided to take LDP-KP support to try to unseat 達増拓也.  That seems to have provoked that opposition into a grand alliance to back 達増拓也 which seems to have gotten some JCP support.  With the polls showing a 達増拓也 landslide it seems today 平野達男 dropped out of the race which means that 達増拓也 will pretty much win by default.  We also have the 岩手 prefecture assembly election where DPJ and PLP should capture a majority over LDP-KP.   In October there will be an by-election to fill 平野達男's seat in  岩手 which the LDP-KP seems to be destined to lose as long as the opposition stays united.   In October we also have the 宮城県 and November 福島県 prefecture assembly elections.   In both these races if the drop in LDP support persists, it is possible that LDP-KP might be kept from their majorities in both these prefecture assemblies.  

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just saying jaichind, I find it interesting; but could you use the Latin alphabet? The random kanji symbols kind of make your text harder to read, especially in a Western forum.

[jaichind]

Just saying jaichind, I find it interesting; but could you use the Latin alphabet? The random kanji symbols kind of make your text harder to read, especially in a Western forum.

I know I know.  I will try.  Problem is for many Japanese politicians (especially the non-famous ones) there does not seems to be easy way to get the official Latin version of the name that is why I use the raw form.

[jaichind]

One of the basic core "problems" of Japanese politics since the end of the Cold War in 1990 is "How to defeat and perhaps even destroy LDP."  One can argue that there is no need for LDP after the end of the Cold War but LDP continued becoming a party whose job is to just get power.  Many even inside LDP are disturbed by this and there has been many different attempts inside and outside of LDP to figure out a way to defeat LDP but none of them seems to have worked for any durable basis, and at the local level there is zero success.

One reason it is so hard to defeat LDP is the rule "If you win you are LDP" where anyone that manages to win will be allowed inside LDP and be part of the power structure plus "all things equal LDP will be in power in all local positions all the time and in power almost all the time in the central government especially given the LDP-KP alliance."  Both logic reinforce each other.  True, LDP was beaten in 1993 and 2009 but their power at the local was never broken which paved the way for LDP to come back especially given the LDP's DNA of single minded goal of gaining power at all costs.  LDP control of local prefecture politics is critical since that is the farm league for local political power brokers to emerge and carry with it a personal vote which then could be transferred to LDP before during or after the local politician rise  to the top. 

The transformation of KP from a radical even radical leftist anti-LDP party of the 1960s to an moderate center-right but stable LDP partner is a critical part of the story.  The turning point is actually the infamous 1995 Tokyo subway sarin attack by Aum Shinrikyo.  After that there was a crackdown in Japan of all religious cults  and the  Soka Gakkai which is the real power behind KP was fearful that it might face the brunt of the anti-cult tide.  An alliance with LDP was critical to make KP and  Soka Gakkai appear mainstream and since the crackdown in cults was being handled by local prefecture governments, LDP unbroken domination of local governments especially when added by KP's very powerful footprint at local politics will from a firewall to protect  Soka Gakkai.  So what the KP get out this deal is respectability and what it gives to LDP is a reliable 12%-15% of the vote and tending to 15% in the lower turnout elections we are having today.

So even if LDP-KP is somehow beaten at the national level by some combination of DPJ-JIP a national election or two down the line, unless the LDP domination of prefecture politics is broken or the KP breaks of it alliance with LDP, the LDP will be back one way or another.  Most likely you will need both to keep LDP out for a while.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could it occur from an attack on the dynastic nature of Japanese politics? Am I right in saying that most of the important politicians are children and grandchildren of the old elite?

[jaichind]

Could it occur from an attack on the dynastic nature of Japanese politics? Am I right in saying that most of the important politicians are children and grandchildren of the old elite?

Perhaps but note that the DPJ and JIP are also infested with second and third generation politicians so not sure why they would benefit from this.    Of course there is another factor to overcome, the JCP.  The JCP pretty much refuses to join forces with non-LDP opposition parities.  In Japan there are 2 cult parties, the KP and JCP.  The KP's voting base votes religiously (literally) for KP or whomever KP allies with which is always LDP.  JCP's voting base always votes with JCP which is NOT part of anti-LDP alliance.  In FPTP this setup is very advantageous to LDP.  In 2009 the JCP did decide to not run in 148 out of 300 FPTP seats and it was clear the the JCP voter was tactically voting for DPJ in many other seats.   This cost LDP about 30 FPTP seats.  The LDP would have lost even without tactical JCP support for DPJ in 2009 but it would have been a lot closer.  In almost all other cases JCP always runs a candidate and splits the anti-LDP vote.

[jaichind]

埼玉 (Saitama) governor race tomorrow.  The incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda) who has a DPJ background has the upper hand.  Back in 2011 LDP KP and DPJ all backed Ueda against the JCP candidates. Ueda was first elected in 2003 in a bye-election defeating the LDP candidate although his victory was more based on the fact that the previous LDP governor had to resign over corruption charges.  LDP and KP took the approach of if you can beat them join them in 2007 and 2011 and backed Ueda.  This time around JIP backs Ueda and DPJ gives tacit endorsement to Ueda as well.  The LDP backed candidate 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu) has a bureaucracy background seems likely to win.  This is a rare defeat for LDP.  Saitama as a whole is bellwether prefecture but trending LDP and it is really a testimony of Ueda's personal popularity that the LDP will be defeated. At the local governor level it is rare that LDP is defeated, unless by a LDP rebel.

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls show that in 埼玉 (Saitama) governor race, JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda) has won with about 55% of the vote.  The LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu) has a bit less than 25% of the vote and the JCP candidate has a bit less than 20% of the vote.  The LDP candidate is the strongest among voters in the 20s while the JCP candidate is the strongest among the voters in the 30s.  

[jaichind]

So far with 64% of the vote counted we have

JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda)  59%
LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu)   21%
JCP guy  15%