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jaichind
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« Reply #275 on: October 04, 2015, 09:57:54 AM »
« edited: October 04, 2015, 11:35:47 AM by jaichind »



Latest on JIP split

Pro-Hashimoto bloc has 17 MP (11 Lower House 6 Upper House)  - really 10 Lower House since one pro-Hashimoto MP resigned to run for Osaka Mayor.

Anti-Hashimoto bloc has 26 MP (21 Lower House and 5 Upper Hoise)

Neutral bloc has 8 Lower House MPs.  

What seems to be driving choices is not just ideology (OSA background for sure going for Hashimoto while PFG and LDP background mostly for Hashimoto while YP DPJ PLP background should be mostly anti-Hashimoto) but especially for Lower House MPs, re-election prospects.  Several FPG and LDP lower House MPs are in the neutral bloc since for them to win re-election they need to go up against LDP candidates.  Just like several Okinawa and DPJ background MPs which should be anti-Hashimoto choose to be in the pro-Hashimoto camp or neutral because DPJ already has formed anti-LDP alliances in their district ergo there is no place for them during re-election if they side with JIP which means siding with DPJ.   It is also easier for DPJ or YP background Upper House MPs who won on PR to go with Hashimoto because they can always run on the PR slate.  The new Hashimoto party outside of Kinki will not do well in district seats but the party as a whole could get up to 8% of the national vote which would mean 4 PR MPs in the Upper House PR list.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #276 on: October 08, 2015, 05:45:34 AM »



For Osaka mayor election it is all set.  It will be LDP's Akira Yanagimoto (柳本顕) who is a member of the Osaka city council versus ORA's Hirofumi Yoshimura (吉村洋文) who is a current JIP MP from Osaka.  As expected for Osaka politics, DPJ and JCP will back the LDP candidate.  In Osaka it is now mostly everyone gang up on OAA.  For Hashimoto this is a must win if he is able to prove his new Osaka based national party can go anywhere.

As for Osaka governor ORA will run Ichirō Matsui (松井一郎) for reelection and the anti-ORA front is still trying to work out who will challange him.  Kunio Hiramatsu (平松 邦夫) who was mayor of Osaka is offering himself as a compromise candidate.  Kunio Hiramatsu was first elected as Osaka mayor back in 2007 backed by DPJ but lost re-election to Hashimoto in 2011.
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jaichind
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« Reply #277 on: October 18, 2015, 10:10:06 AM »

JIP expelled the Osaka based 12 MPs.  About 16 JIP MPs are expected to join the new Hashimoto Party of ORA.  The formation of the new party is being delayed to dispute the expulsion.  At stake are the $20+ million worth subsidies JIP gets annually based on their vote share on the PR slate.  ORA will claim that JIP split so they deserve their share of the money whereas JIP claims the pro-Hashimoto faction were expelled so they deserve nothing.  This will most likely go to the courts.
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Nathan
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« Reply #278 on: October 18, 2015, 06:49:22 PM »

So Hase Hiroshi is the new Minister of A Lot Of Things, We'll Say 'Culture' For Now. Hase is one of the few relatively good eggs in the LDP right now (in particular he's strong on LGBT rights), so I'm pleased with this, but one suspects his appointment is meant to function partially as a way to distract attention from MEXT's role in the recent attack on the humanities and social sciences in Japanese universities.
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jaichind
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« Reply #279 on: October 18, 2015, 10:05:31 PM »

Latest polls has ORA well ahead for the Osaka Governor election where Matsui Ichirō (松井一郎) is running for reelection



For the Osaka mayor race ORA's Yoshimura Hirofumi (吉村洋文) has a slight lead
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jaichind
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« Reply #280 on: October 19, 2015, 04:29:21 AM »

New scandal.  New Minister for Reconstruction Takagi Tsuyoshi (高木毅) is accused of having multiple counts of stealing women's underwear some 30 years ago.  Takagi is not responding to these allegations.   
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Simfan34
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« Reply #281 on: October 19, 2015, 07:48:51 AM »

Uh... okay?
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warandwar
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« Reply #282 on: October 19, 2015, 10:29:30 AM »

So Hase Hiroshi is the new Minister of A Lot Of Things, We'll Say 'Culture' For Now. Hase is one of the few relatively good eggs in the LDP right now (in particular he's strong on LGBT rights), so I'm pleased with this, but one suspects his appointment is meant to function partially as a way to distract attention from MEXT's role in the recent attack on the humanities and social sciences in Japanese universities.

He's also a former professional wrestler.
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Nathan
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« Reply #283 on: October 20, 2015, 12:07:44 AM »

So Hase Hiroshi is the new Minister of A Lot Of Things, We'll Say 'Culture' For Now. Hase is one of the few relatively good eggs in the LDP right now (in particular he's strong on LGBT rights), so I'm pleased with this, but one suspects his appointment is meant to function partially as a way to distract attention from MEXT's role in the recent attack on the humanities and social sciences in Japanese universities.

He's also a former professional wrestler.

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CrabCake
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« Reply #284 on: October 20, 2015, 12:10:34 AM »

Oh Japan, sometimes you make jokes just too easy.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #285 on: October 20, 2015, 07:52:47 PM »

New scandal.  New Minister for Reconstruction Takagi Tsuyoshi (高木毅) is accused of having multiple counts of stealing women's underwear some 30 years ago.  Takagi is not responding to these allegations.   

This is gotta be the most Japanese scandal ever.
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Nathan
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« Reply #286 on: October 21, 2015, 04:55:13 PM »

New scandal.  New Minister for Reconstruction Takagi Tsuyoshi (高木毅) is accused of having multiple counts of stealing women's underwear some 30 years ago.  Takagi is not responding to these allegations.   

This is gotta be the most Japanese scandal ever.

Matsushima Midori's from last year was more representative of Japan, but this one is more peculiar to Japan.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #287 on: October 22, 2015, 12:18:11 AM »

New scandal.  New Minister for Reconstruction Takagi Tsuyoshi (高木毅) is accused of having multiple counts of stealing women's underwear some 30 years ago.  Takagi is not responding to these allegations.   

This is gotta be the most Japanese scandal ever.

Matsushima Midori's from last year was more representative of Japan, but this one is more peculiar to Japan.

That's what I meant. I remember Al talking about the "most German scandal ever" when a government minister was accused of plagiarism.
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jaichind
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« Reply #288 on: October 23, 2015, 01:44:35 PM »

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture elections this Sunday.  This prefecture always had a slight anti-LDP lean.  Of course just like every other prefecture, LDP dominates the prefecture assembly.   YP did very well last time so it would be interesting to see where the YP vote went and if DPJ could make advances due to the new Security law.
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jaichind
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« Reply #289 on: October 25, 2015, 07:03:03 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2015, 07:20:55 AM by jaichind »

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture elections voting mostly done.  Turnout is projected to be around 27%-28% as of 6pm which is a massive drop from 2011, which in turn was a low.  So turnout overall will be lower than 2011.



Most likely this will help LDP-KP and JCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #290 on: October 25, 2015, 09:38:10 AM »

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture elections.  Will have more details later.  LDP-KP mostly holding their own with some minor losses relative to 2011.  JCP makes large advances relative to SDP and to some extent DPJ.  The 2011 YP vote seems to have been split evenly JIP as well as other post-YP parties or independents, LDP, and DPJ.
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jaichind
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« Reply #291 on: October 25, 2015, 04:14:16 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2015, 07:01:12 AM by jaichind »

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture has LDP-KP losing a bit of ground since 2011.  This is mostly because of some LDP rebels that are running and won with implicit DPJ support and most likely win caucus with DPJ.  JIP and YP retained some of the YP support from 2011 but some of it leaked back to LDP.  JCP surged mostly due to fears over TPP getting vote share from DPJ and SDP.

Results are (I always count pro-DPJ and pro-SDP independents under DPJ and SDP as well pro-LDP independents which I count under LDP)

2015            

Party       Candidate         Wins            Vote Share
LDP             43                 32                 48.92%
KP                 4                   4                   7.11%
JIP                 3                   1                   2.38%
Post-YP          3                   2                   3.44%
DPJ              16                 10                 18.95%
SDP               3                   2                   4.16%
JCP                9                   8                  12.80%
Ind.               5                   0                    2.24%



2011

Party       Candidate         Wins            Vote Share
LDP             41                 34                 49.07%
KP                 4                   4                   6.93%
YP                 8                   4                   9.36%
DPJ              18                   9                 18.89%
SDP               5                   4                   5.29%
JCP                7                   4                   7.33%
Ind.               7                   0                   3.13%




2007

Party       Candidate         Wins            Vote Share
LDP             47                 39                 54.98%
KP                 4                   4                   6.25%
DPJ              18                 12                 22.68%
SDP               7                   4                   7.90%
JCP                8                   2                   7.25%
Ind.               2                   0                   0.94%

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jaichind
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« Reply #292 on: November 14, 2015, 08:04:59 PM »

The current status of JIP split is that ORA was formed  with 20 of JIP MPs joining up.  There are a few more that could join but they are waiting for results of the Osaka Mayor and Governor election of next weekend 11/15.  Meanwhile in DPJ there are now pressures to dissolve the DPJ so a DPJ-JIP merger can take place under a new name.  The current plan is for DPJ and JIP to form one caucus.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #293 on: November 14, 2015, 08:07:43 PM »

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections tomorrow.  LDP tends to be weaker here but LDP-KP should be able to keep their majority. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #294 on: November 15, 2015, 07:30:15 AM »

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  LDP seems to be doing well in rural areas where votes counts are coming in.  Nothing in urban areas yet where JCP will do well.

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          19
KP              1
DPJ            7
JCP            1

with LDP clearly gaining a couple of seats from DPJ in rural areas.
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jaichind
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« Reply #295 on: November 15, 2015, 07:45:59 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2015, 07:49:22 AM by jaichind »

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          22
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ            9
JCP            2

with LDP clearly gaining a couple of seats from DPJ in rural areas.  The YP winner of 2011 is now running and winning as a JIP backed independent. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #296 on: November 15, 2015, 08:02:41 AM »

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          24
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ           10
JCP             4

LDP most likely will repeat its 2011 result of 32 seats.  A couple of LDP backed independents might caucus with JIP.  LDP will most likely gain in terms of vote share.
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jaichind
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« Reply #297 on: November 15, 2015, 08:07:20 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2015, 08:27:11 AM by jaichind »

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          24
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ           12
JCP             4

LDP losing ground a bit in urban mostly because of superior DPJ nomination strategy.  JCP not doing as well as expected.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #298 on: November 15, 2015, 08:44:16 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2015, 08:49:49 AM by jaichind »

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          26
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ           12
JCP             4

Only results from Fukushima City (福島市) Koriyama (郡山市) are outstanding. My back-of-the-envelope guess of what the final results will be

LDP          33
KP              3
JIP              1
DPJ           15
SDP            1
JCP             5
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jaichind
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« Reply #299 on: November 15, 2015, 09:09:36 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2015, 09:42:41 AM by jaichind »

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          31
KP              2
JIP              1
DPJ           14
JCP             5

Only results from Fukushima City (福島市) are outstanding.  DPJ doing a better there than I expected.  I now project

LDP          32
KP              3
JIP              1
DPJ           16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Which means no change from 2011.  Net net, LDP gains ground in rural areas and loses ground in urban areas.
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