Japan General Discussion

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

have the JCP ever mused about changing their name or is there less stigma attached to "communism" in Japan?

[jaichind]

have the JCP ever mused about changing their name or is there less stigma attached to "communism" in Japan?

There were discussions on the side about this during the 2000s when the surge of the DPJ was slowing squeezing out the JCP which had reached a postwar high back in the late 1990s.  These talks died down when DPJ fell apart in 2012 which benefited the JCP in 2013 and 2014 elections.  If JCP support starts falling again there might be more talks about renaming the party.

[warandwar]

Kyoto is a Communist stronghold? It's amazing, really-- who would have thought Japan would have been perhaps the only developed country where the Communist Party remained relevant?

If you read the platform of the JCP you would find that it is mostly a European Social Democratic Party.  Also Kyodo is a JCP stronghold in the sense that it is capable of winning elections on its own even though it is infrequent.   It is the largest non-LDP political force there and in fact, as I pointed out, often force the creation of anti-JCP united front from time to time.

Does this have anything to do with the amount of Zainichi there? I'm pretty sure Kyoto has a fair amount.

[jaichind]

Kyoto is a Communist stronghold? It's amazing, really-- who would have thought Japan would have been perhaps the only developed country where the Communist Party remained relevant?

If you read the platform of the JCP you would find that it is mostly a European Social Democratic Party.  Also Kyodo is a JCP stronghold in the sense that it is capable of winning elections on its own even though it is infrequent.   It is the largest non-LDP political force there and in fact, as I pointed out, often force the creation of anti-JCP united front from time to time.

Does this have anything to do with the amount of Zainichi there? I'm pretty sure Kyoto has a fair amount.

That could be.  I am not sure about that.  My understanding was always that Kyodo labor unions has been unusually strong.  Also Kyodo is a university town so the center-left is stronger there as well.

[jaichind]

Oops. Knew that. Meant ARG.

ARG, which stands for Assembly Reform Grouping was my translation of JIP splinter 改革結集の会.  Now they have an official name which is "Vision of Reform."

[jaichind]

LDP MP 宮崎謙介 (Miyazaki Kensuke) announced that he will resign over a sex scandal.

宮崎謙介



Miyazaki married another LDP MP 金子惠美 (Kaneko Megumi) in early 2015.  Both were elected in the LDP 2012 landslide in DPJ leaning districts and belonged to the same LDP faction.

金子惠美



Miyazaki created a large controversy recently when he announced he will take paternity leave to help take care of the child that Kaneko just gave birth to just a few days ago.  He said he was doing it a symbol of gender equity in society where paternity leave is frowned upon.  Many in the opposition said the he is doing this only to get media attention.

This media attention lead to a recently revelations that Miyazaki is having an affair with an actress 宮澤磨由 (Miyazawa MigakuYukari) and was spending nights with her a couple of days before his wife was due to give birth.

宮澤磨由



The Japanese media took great glee repeatedly discussing how Miyazawa has a F-Cup size bra.  When this came to light, and I am pretty sure under pressure from Abe, Miyazaki resigned.

Miyazak's district which is the Kyodo 3rd district has a historical DPJ lean.  In 2014 the district was won by LDP because of the DPJ and JIP running separately.

LDP   35.8%
DPJ   33.1%
JCP   16.1%
JIP    15.0%

In 2012 it was

LDP   31.6%
DPJ   31.5%
JRP    22.5%
JCP    14.3%

The DPJ runner up who was represented this district 2003-2012 was elected on the PR slate in 2012 and 2014  is said to be eager to run in the by-election.  Looks like ORA will also run a candidate.  If there we a situation where the opposition should be able to win a by-election it should be this one.  of course LDP might be too embarrassed to run a candidate and might up backing a KP candidate or even backing ORA

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

It's been (will be, for those of us Westerners literally living in the past) 5 years since the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami.


2,561 people are still missing, sadly. With nearly 16,000 confirmed deaths, this would bring the estimated death toll to over 18,000.

On a more positive note, Japan's tourist sector has more than just recovered: it's booming. In 2010 8.6 million foreigners went to Japan. In 2011, less than the half visited. In 2015, over 19 million people visited Japan, marking the first year ever that more people visited Japan than Japanese visiting other countries.

Informative presentation from Nikkei: http://asia.nikkei.com/static/vdata/shinsai2016-photo/prj2/shinsai2016-photo/index.html

[Frodo]

Japan's Shinkansen now connects Tokyo to Hokkaido:



And in case anyone is wondering, the Sapporo connection won't be completed for another fifteen years.  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And in case anyone is wondering, the Sapporo connection won't be completed for another fifteen years.

A-l-m-o-s-t makes you pine for the days when this badass mofo would bust heads to get things done.



(joking)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

District court in Kanagawa issues injunction against man planning to hold anti-Korean rally in Kawasaki, noted incomprehensible shrimp-shaped city and sister city of Baltimore and Sheffield, in the first test of a hate-speech law passed last week.

[jaichind]

I guess with the 2016 Upper House elections behind us I will update this thread on latest developments.

It seems that 小沢 一郎 (Ozawa Ichirō) has renamed his PLP to 自由党(Liberal Party), the same name as the center-right opposition party of 1998-2003 until he merged it with DPJ.



Not sure what he is up to.  I guess it this is his attempt to try to swing Right to try to capture anti-LDP center-right votes.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

HP move objectively but if it poaches votes from the revisionists I'm all for it.

[jaichind]

This Sunday 10/16 新潟(Niigata) will have a governor race.  The pro-LDP incumbant is retiring so it is an open seat.  DP under Renho is continuing its alliance with JCP in 1-on-1 races.  It will be a showdown between a LDP-KP backed candidates versus a SDP-GP-NSP-JCP backed candidate with de facto DP support since the candidate is a DP party member.  The joint opposition candidate is running on a nuclear free platform and has been closing the gap on the LDP candidate.  The LDP-KP candidate still has the upper hand but it seems the election will be close.  Niigata has a DP tilt nationally but in local elections LDP is much stronger than its national election result.  The only chance for the opposition is to try to nationalize the election by pushing the anti-nuclear line.

[Famous Mortimer]

GP and NSP are?

[jaichind]

GP and NSP are?

Green Party and New Socialist Party (Far Left SDP breakaway)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How powerful are prefectural governments? I always was under the impression the central government was pretty overpowered, and therefore they could do jack about nuclear plants or what have you.

[jaichind]

How powerful are prefectural governments? I always was under the impression the central government was pretty overpowered, and therefore they could do jack about nuclear plants or what have you.

Totally true.  In fact prefectural assembly power has decreased since the 1970s when the budget regulations changed so that prefectural governments can no long run budget deficits.  For backward prefectures this means they are totally dependent on central government subsidies to survive.  This is the main reason LDP dominates local politics.  Of course often the governors races  do get turned into a de facto referendum on some local issue (like nuclear power plants) which does upset the applecart although the mandate is not binding.   The 鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor race back in July was successfully turned by the opposition into a referendum on nuclear power and pulled in enough anti-nuclear LDP support to defeat the LDP-KP candidate.

[jaichind]

Latest polls show the 新潟(Niigata) governor race hat tighten where it is LDP-KP 42 DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 41.  Renho seems to be jumping in to do joint campaign rally appearances with LP SDP and JCP leaders.


Campaign poster asking for mass "emergency" rally for opposition candidate featuring Renho

I guess she is putting her prestige on the line to try to get a victory and grow momentum for her leadership.

[Vega]

How powerful are prefectural governments? I always was under the impression the central government was pretty overpowered, and therefore they could do jack about nuclear plants or what have you.

Totally true.  In fact prefectural assembly power has decreased since the 1970s when the budget regulations changed so that prefectural governments can no long run budget deficits.  For backward prefectures this means they are totally dependent on central government subsidies to survive.  This is the main reason LDP dominates local politics.  Of course often the governors races  do get turned into a de facto referendum on some local issue (like nuclear power plants) which does upset the applecart although the mandate is not binding.   The 鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor race back in July was successfully turned by the opposition into a referendum on nuclear power and pulled in enough anti-nuclear LDP support to defeat the LDP-KP candidate.

Has there ever been any discussion about changing local government in Japan or abolishing the Prefectures?

[jaichind]

Sunday 10/23 there are two by-elections for the Lower House.  They are 東京(Tokyo) 10th district and 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th district.   In 東京(Tokyo) 10th district it is LDP incumbent 小池 百合子 Koike Yuriko was elected governor of Tokyo as an independent defeating the LDP candidate.  In 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th district the LDP incumbent 鳩山邦夫 (Hatoyama Kunio) who is a grandson and a brother of a PM passed away.  鳩山邦夫 (Hatoyama Kunio) bolted from LDP with his brother 鳩山 由紀夫 Hatoyama Yukio in 1993 and later founded DPJ with his brother.  He later broke with his brother and rejoined the LDP in 2000. 

Both seats are lean LDP seats.  In theory the LDP should win both by-elections but the LDP nomination strategy seems to have botched and created a chance for the united opposition.  In both districts the SDP-LP-JCP are backing the DP candidate in a continuation of the grand alliance of the opposition.  In 東京(Tokyo) 10th district the rebel LDP Koike controls the LDP branch and nominated a pro-Koike incumbent LDP MP who was elected on the PR slate but now want to win in an district race.  This LDP candidate is backed  Koike in the Tokyo Governor race over the LDP candidate and has an outstanding censure by the Tokyo LDP branch. This candidate has already announced that if he is censured then he will quit the LDP.  So the LDP voter in the  東京(Tokyo) 10th district will have to deal with a LDP candidate that he/she knows is likely to quit the LDP.  This gives the DP a chance.  In 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th district the two LDP factions are each backing a separate candidate one of which is son of the deceased MP 鳩山邦夫 (Hatoyama Kunio).  Both will run as an independent and if one of them wins they will be retroactively nominated by the LDP. In theory this should give the DP a solid shot to win.  But in many cases like this the polarization of the two rival LDP factions actually leads to tactical voting by the anti-LDP voter for one or the other LDP candidate since both are running as an independent. 

If the LDP manages to win both seats it will be a blow to the new DP leader Renho. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

what kind of areas are they? Working-class?

[jaichind]

what kind of areas are they? Working-class?

東京(Tokyo) 10th is urban upper to middle class while 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th district is suburban lower middle class.

[jaichind]

Has there ever been any discussion about changing local government in Japan or abolishing the Prefectures?

Not that I am aware of.  Almost impossible for this to take place as there are too much regional prefecture identities.   

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor election voting over.  Asahi Exit polls show a shocking win for the united opposition candidate: DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 51 LDP-KP 47

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll has opposition ahead as well.



Shows large defection from LDP voters (red) which are 42% of the voters for the opposition candidate (Blue) while KP (pink) and 3% of the voters (a severe undercount as many KP voters mostly claim that they are LDP voters) mostly voted LDP-KP.  DP (which is also labeled Blue) which are 15% of the voters and JCP (purple) which are 3% voted opposition.  Others (grey) which are 32% of the votes which contain ORA voters as well as soft DP supporters lean toward the opposition.