Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

NHK calls it for the opposition.  With 4% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 48.3% LDP-KP 50.3% but the early count has a high rural bias.

[jaichind]

With 30% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 51.5% LDP-KP 47.3%

[jaichind]

With 57% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 51.6% LDP-KP 46.9%

This is the first time that the 新潟(Niigata) governorship has been captured by someone without the support of the LDP (or its predecessors)  in the post WWII era.

[jaichind]

With 70% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 52.7% LDP-KP 45.6%

[jaichind]

In the 2015 prefectural assembly elections for 新潟(Niigata) the Right (LDP, KP, JIP) Left (DPJ, SDP, Local centrist opposition alliance, JCP) vote share split was around 55-45.  For this sort of result to take place it must mean a significant defection of anti-nuclear LDP and ORA voters to vote for the united opposition.  It seems that the opposition strategy of using the nuclear restart issue as a way to nationalize this election worked.  In many ways even at the local level 新潟(Niigata) has been trending away from LDP.  In the 2007 and 2011 prefecture assembly elections the Right (LDP, KP, YP[for 2011]) Left (DPJ, SDP, Local centrist opposition alliance, JCP) vote split has been more like 60-40.  The 2015 prefectural assembly elections represented a swing away from LDP even as the national environment was a lot more favorable to the LDP in 2015 than in 2011 and 2007.

[jaichind]

With 88% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 52.6% LDP-KP 45.8%

[jaichind]

With all of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 52.2% LDP-KP 45.9%

Exit polls were off by 1% in favor of LDP-KP

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Northern Japan best Japan.

[Vega]

Not bad. Good to see the Opposition can some notches under their belt.

[Famous Mortimer]

If you're a Japanese politics watcher, watch the new Godzilla movie, Shin Godzilla. Really great satire.

[Vega]

If you're a Japanese politics watcher, watch the new Godzilla movie, Shin Godzilla. Really great satire.

Haha, yeah, I saw that Opening Night and it was dead on. I was surprised by all the politics that was in it, and how accurately they captured how the Japanese Government would react to a giant monster attack.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If you're a Japanese politics watcher, watch the new Godzilla movie, Shin Godzilla. Really great satire.

Thanks for the recommendation. I love monster flicks.

[jaichind]

I did look into this issue of Prefecture Governor and nuclear power plants.  It seems that even though the governor has no legal power over nuclear power being put back online, it is customary that the power company gets signoff from the governor.   So in 新潟(Niigata) where the vote for the anti-nuclear opposition candidate does make sense for the anti-nuclear vote.  Main problem is that Japan has a power shortage.  I was just there again back in Aug and in Tokyo the AC situation was pretty bad.  This cannot continue forever. 

[jaichind]

Exit polls show that pro-Koekie LDP rebel but nominated by LDP has won in 東京(Tokyo) 10th over DP and deceased MP Hatoyama's son won in 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th over its LDP rival and DP. 

[jaichind]

NHK 東京(Tokyo) 10th exit seems to indicate LDP 57.5 DP 38.9.  Back in 2014 it was LDP 50.7 DPJ 23.9 JCP 15.4 PLP 5.2 PFG 4.7.  So LDP maintained the level of support from LDP-PFG while DP mostly has DPK-JCP-PLP.   Looks like Koike is able to transfer her support to her protege on top of the LDP base which stayed loyal despite the LDP candidate being a pro-Koike rebel.

[jaichind]

It seems that in 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th deceased MP Hatoyama's son who was retroactively nominated by the LDP for winning has captured 70%??!! of the vote.  Wow. There must have been a sympathy factor that extended across partisan lines. 

[jaichind]

NHK 東京(Tokyo) 10th exit poll (LDP as red and DP as blue)



breakdown by party supporters



some LDP voters (red) did vote DP while DP (blue), KP (pink) and JCP (purple) voted for what their partisan alignment indicated.  Many KP supporters claim to to be LDP supporters.  Non-aligned (grey) which has JRP and soft DP supporters seems to split their vote down the middle.  This shows the many soft DP voters went LDP this time giving the LDP a solid win.

[jaichind]

福岡(Fukuoka) 6th exit poll with Hatoyama (LDP) as soft pink and the local rival LDP candidate as solid pink.  DP is blue



breakdown by party has



LDP (red) mostly went for Hatoyama as did KP (pink).  DP voters (blue) had significant defection to  Hatoyama.  Non-aligned voters (greg) which are mostly JRP and soft DP supporters also went to Hatoyama.

[jaichind]

東京(Tokyo) 10th with 80% of the vote counted it is  LDP 62.2 DP 36.6
福岡(Fukuoka) 6th with 13% of the vote counted it is LDP 58.5 DP 24.8 local LDP 14.9

[jaichind]

東京(Tokyo) 10th with 99% of the vote counted it is  LDP 60.4 DP 37.4
福岡(Fukuoka) 6th with 29% of the vote counted it is LDP 66.7 DP 20.8 local LDP 11.7

Turnout for 東京(Tokyo) 10th was very low giving the machine parties LDP-KP a advantage beyond what it had in 2014.

[jaichind]

東京(Tokyo) 10th with 99% of the vote counted it is  LDP 60.4 DP 37.4
福岡(Fukuoka) 6th with 84% of the vote counted it is LDP 61.3 DP 22.0 local LDP 15.2

Exit polls seems too optimistic for Hatoyama.

[jaichind]

東京(Tokyo) 10th with all votes counted it is  LDP 60.3 DP 37.5
福岡(Fukuoka) 6th with all votes counted it is LDP 62.2 DP 23.4 local LDP 13.0

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yikes. Not good.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

RIP RENHO

SAVIOUR OF JAPANESE LEFT (2016-16)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is there any way for the opposition to spin this as a split decision with the Niigata race?