Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

Latest Abe approval rating.  And that is before his defeat in Tokyo today.

[Lachi]

Abe is a dead man walking imo.

[jaichind]

Abe is a dead man walking imo.

Not sure about that.  He is in trouble for sure.  I think he still has enough political to stay on until the next election.  But he must do well in next year's general election.  Even if he wins a majority but loses a bunch a seats he will most likely not win the LDP 2018 Prez race and be forced not to contest.

[Lachi]

Yeah, but that could be up to a year and a half away. That is plenty of time for him to redo his public image.

[jaichind]

LDP support (pink) drops to a record low over a 2 year period.  DP support (purple) recovers a bit but nowhere does it gain ground that LDP lost.

[Vega]

Abe is a dead man walking imo.

He has had ebbs and flows to his popularity at various points of being in office.

[jaichind]

Latest NNN poll which has approval/disapproval at 31.9/49.2 pushes the Abe cabinet average approval curve underwater for the first time since late summer of 2015.

[jaichind]

Updated Abe cabinet approval/disapproval average after Yomiuri and Asahi polls.  Could go down a bit more once NHK poll comes and assuming it confirms the same trend.  Abe approval now officially a few points worse than its low point in the late summer of 2015 when the new Security Law was passed.

[jaichind]

Post Tokyo Prefecture election we have a large drop in Abe approval and LDP support.  The fall in support led to defeat in Tokyo which in turn drives up disapproval.

[Leftbehind]

Am I missing something here? Do these polls just not exclude undecideds? I can't see how else the LDP could lose 20 points off their 2014 result and yet the opposition are nearly all around 5% when in 2014 just the DPJ & JCP totalled above 35%.

[jaichind]

Am I missing something here? Do these polls just not exclude undecideds? I can't see how else the LDP could lose 20 points off their 2014 result and yet the opposition are nearly all around 5% when in 2014 just the DPJ & JCP totalled above 35%.

That's the whole point.  The grey line is "do not support any party."  LDP's loss is not necessary DP or JCP's gain.  Of course LDP and JCP (along with JRP and KP) all totally under-poll.  KP always get 13%-15% depending on turnout and DP's real level of support is double or triple of what they poll. 

[Leftbehind]

Am I missing something here? Do these polls just not exclude undecideds? I can't see how else the LDP could lose 20 points off their 2014 result and yet the opposition are nearly all around 5% when in 2014 just the DPJ & JCP totalled above 35%.

That's the whole point.  The grey line is "do not support any party."  LDP's loss is not necessary DP or JCP's gain.  Of course LDP and JCP (along with JRP and KP) all totally under-poll.  KP always get 13%-15% depending on turnout and DP's real level of support is double or triple of what they poll. 

Well of course I understand LDP's losses can't be immediately assumed to be beneficial for DPJ or JCP, it was the fact that no-one was gaining; that they're all hovering around 5%. I'm surprised they're happy to commission all these polls and yet leave the undecideds in with no attempt to further query them - in the end left with a showing of a largely unrepresentative and meaningless snapshot (as you've outlined).

[jaichind]

See Asahi (anti-LDP paper) editorial for DP's polling problems

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201707130022.html

 

[jaichind]

Jiji poll on Abe approval/disapproval 29.9(-15.2)/48.6(+14.7)


Updated approval/disapproval average.  Convergence toward 35

[jaichind]

Kyodo News poll Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval   35.8(-9.1)/53.1(+10)



Which is mostly inline with other polls so the average does not change that much.  Although one should note that Kyodo polls tend to have an anti-LDP bias

[jaichind]

Same Kyodo News poll has support/opposition to new Constitution being at 32.6/54.8

[jaichind]

ANN poll on Abe approval  29.2 (-8.7)/54.4(+12.9)



I cannot but feel that these numbers are overreacting the the negative coverage of Abe and LDP in the aftermath of its rout in the Tokyo Prefecture elections.  Once the news cycle turns more neutral there will be a strong bounce back, although nowhere to where it was in the Spring and early Summer.

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll on Abe approval/disapproval  26(-10)/56(+12)

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll on Abe approval/disapproval 39 (-10)/52(+10).  A bit better for Abe but Nikkei polls has a historical pro-LDP bias.

[jaichind]

Updated Abe cabinet approval/disapproval average

[jaichind]

The same Mainichi poll also has support for Abe seeking an unprecedented third term of LDP President at 23/62 vs Abe Cabinet approval of 26/56.  So it seems a section of those that approve of Abe Cabinet are opposed to Abe having a third term of LDP President.

[jaichind]

Sankei poll on Abe Approval/Disapproval  34.7(-12.9)/56.1(+13.2)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How cutthroat is the LDP? Are there any Ozawa style powerbrokers that will kick Abe if he looks to be a liability?

[jaichind]

How cutthroat is the LDP? Are there any Ozawa style powerbrokers that will kick Abe if he looks to be a liability?

LDP is all about winning.  If the LDP establishment/faction leaders feel that Abe is an electoral liability Abe would be dumped fairly quickly.  If this was July 2018 which is 2 months from LDP President election race and 4 months from the next Lower House elections and Abe's numbers are what they are now he would be forced out or defeated in the the LDP leadership race.   Given Abe's track record to make comebacks (both in 2012 and in the Summer of 2015 when his numbers were almost as bad as his current numbers) most LDP power brokers and Abe opponents are holding their fire to see if Abe can mount a comeback the next few months.   

[jaichind]

Sankei poll on Abe Approval/Disapproval  34.7(-12.9)/56.1(+13.2)

Some more good info from the same poll and shows that Abe's possible future fall most likely will benefit his rivals in the LDP and not the opposition

Party support
LDP  29.1 (-6.9)
DP     7.0 (-1.3)
KP     5.3 (+1.2)
JCP    4.6 (-1.0)
JRP    3.2 (-0.3)
SDP   1.3 (+0.5)
LP     0.8 (-0.5)
PJK   0.2 (---)

Do you trust Abe Yes/No  29.6/63.8 (very problematic for Abe as this number is worse than the overall Abe Cabinet approval)

Who would be best PM

石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru)         20.4   - Abe main rival in LDP, a LDP faction leader and
                                                      former cabinet member
安倍 晋三(Abe Shinzō)           19.7   - Current PM
小泉 進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)   9.0   - LDP MP,  Koizumi junior, son of ex-PM Koizumi, clearly has
                                                      ambitions to be PM eventually with support from his
                                                      father's influence in LDP
小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)        8.9   - Tokyo Gov, head of TPFA, rumors that she is being
                                                      backed by Ozawa and Koizumi
岸田 文雄(Kishida Fumio)         5.3  - LDP MP, Minister of Defense, LDP faction leader, wants out of
                                                      cabinet so he can potentially challenge Abe for LDP leader
橋下 徹(Hashimoto Tōru)        3.9 -  Founder and former head of JRP, ally of Abe at the national level
麻生 太郎(Asō Tarō)                2.2  - Deputy PM, former PM, a LDP faction leader (second largest in
                                                     LDP next to Abe's faction)
村田 蓮舫(Murata Renhō)        1.7 -  Leader of DP
前原 誠司(Maehara Seiji)        0.5 -  DP faction leader, ex-leader of DPJ

Most of support for alternative PM are mostly for other LDP leaders.