Japan General Discussion

[Vega]

The Ainu are doing as well as most Native peoples are in their respective lands; which means not good, as Nathan said.

By the way, how is Prime Minister Abe's approval rating these days?

[Vega]

I'm surprised, but glad, the DPJ didn't split. Had they done so, I don't think the LDP would really have a clear "opposition".

[Vega]

Apparently Ichiro Ozawa's People's Life Party is still around, surprisingly.

[Vega]

Apparently Ichiro Ozawa's People's Life Party is still around, surprisingly.

Not really surprising. They've been around in one form or another for like 2 decades.

It's surprising that they haven't merged with another party yet or somehow split.

[Vega]

Thanks for all the info.

Tokenism isn't anything new, but when it blows up like this, it's unfortunate. Especially since Abe was trying to generally do a good thing by appointing them.

Is there something wrong with the vetting process in Japan? Or do the would-be minister not go through one?

[Vega]

It will be interesting to see how Abe's approval rating is looking after these scandals. Wouldn't shock me if it's under 45%.

[Vega]

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Abe is no longer in office by the end of the year if this goes on. (Not to overstate the case--I wouldn't be surprised if he is still in office either.)

If he's out, who do you think will replace him? Is there any chance Aso might come back for another go as PM?

[Vega]

A bunch of Japanese firms and government agencies have offered to help develop a new capital for Andhra Pradesh. Japanese-Indian relations have long been a special area of interest for Abe.

His views are pretty much in lockstep with Modi, so it makes sense.

[Vega]

They need to vet these guys.

[Vega]

IIRC New Party Daichi drop the "True Democrats" part of there name.

That being said, nice list. It'll probably change next week, but it's great you made it.

[Vega]

Also, my how the SDP has fallen. The JCP has maintained the same amount of support since the 60s, though.

[Vega]

Abe is gambling with this... he might win more seats... or he might loose seats.

Normally when you gamble, you loose.

[Vega]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure he'll loose a good few seats. Though the LDP will still have a rather large majority.

[Vega]

Apparently Onaga was backed by a broad coalition of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito prefectural officials.

[Vega]

The former I would imagine.

[Vega]

Bumping this because the $600 exercise election is over, and the hunt we'll be on for a new DPJ leader.

Also, Abe has announced that all members of his cabinet pre-dissolution will be staying on.

[Vega]

The Japan Times has a good article on who might succeed Kaieda as leader of the DPJ.

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001794076

Currently, my money is on Seiji Maehara.

[Vega]

How much longer do we give Abe? He's dipped below 40%, and Japanese PMs don't usually recover once they sink that low.

[Vega]

Didn't Abe get on pretty well with Obama? They seemed nice enough to each other, not like there was anything brewing under the surface. Abe was even invited to speak before Congress.

[Vega]

Abe has until 2018, right? Two three year stints as LDP president.

Right, although there's been some talk to the effect that he might try to change the party constitution to stay in longer. Even staying until 2018 would make him the second-longest serving postwar prime minister after Satō Eisaku.

Personally, I don't think he stays on very long past next year's upper house elections, but that's because I'm optimistic about both those elections and his sense of shame.

I doubt he changes the rules, too (even though they're inane). If he can even make it that long, I'll be very, very surprised.

[Vega]

Off topic, but it's odd how the LDP is shown in red, while the DPJ shown in blue, despite their logo. Is this standard?

[Vega]

Abe could most likely find some supporters if he were to try to reform the Imperial family. Shame he seems adverse to doing popular things lately, though.

[Vega]

Wait the PLP? They're inviting freaking Ichiro Ozawa back? Lmao

It is more the JIP guys are pushing it.  JIP wants all 4 parties (DPJ JIP SDP and PLP) to dissolve and merge into a new party.  DPJ wants the rest of them to merge into DPJ which could but does not have to include PLP.   

The DPJ would be stupid to dissolve. They've lasted a long time (by Japanese political party standards).

[Vega]

How powerful are prefectural governments? I always was under the impression the central government was pretty overpowered, and therefore they could do jack about nuclear plants or what have you.

Totally true.  In fact prefectural assembly power has decreased since the 1970s when the budget regulations changed so that prefectural governments can no long run budget deficits.  For backward prefectures this means they are totally dependent on central government subsidies to survive.  This is the main reason LDP dominates local politics.  Of course often the governors races  do get turned into a de facto referendum on some local issue (like nuclear power plants) which does upset the applecart although the mandate is not binding.   The 鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor race back in July was successfully turned by the opposition into a referendum on nuclear power and pulled in enough anti-nuclear LDP support to defeat the LDP-KP candidate.

Has there ever been any discussion about changing local government in Japan or abolishing the Prefectures?

[Vega]

Not bad. Good to see the Opposition can some notches under their belt.