How much longer do we give Abe? He's dipped below 40%, and Japanese PMs don't usually recover once they sink that low.
Well, that is one poll. Most other polls are mostly in the 40s. On the other hand these polls were from early June before the security bills became part of the public discussion. I do expect these polls to also fall, perhaps to below 40% so we will have to see what other polls show. On the other hand once Abe rams these laws through and memories of public opposition fade from the debate Abe's approval rating will recover but perhaps not to the level where LDP-KP can win in a landslide in 2016. If so LDP-KP in 2016 will gain a few seats versus the 2010 election but not enough to give him the 2/3 majority he needs. Especially if changing the Constitution might become a topic of the 2016 elections with all things equal will work against LDP-KP.
I think the question isn't about LDP losing, but about LDP returning to its tendency to ditch leaders very often.
