2016 Trend Map
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Author Topic: 2016 Trend Map  (Read 766 times)
Devils30
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« on: October 12, 2014, 12:04:22 AM »
« edited: October 12, 2014, 12:07:25 AM by Devils30 »


I think Hillary wins by around what Obama did in 2008 but the midwest barely moves at all. She improves in Appalachia and Arkansas but not enough to win and demographics help her in the southeast. At the same time, places in the deep south such as MS, AL, SC are too racially polarized for significant improvement for her over Obama.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2014, 02:25:20 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 12:59:01 PM by IceSpear »


Assuming Hillary wins by the same margin as Obama did in 2012.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2014, 04:41:01 AM »
It's too early to definitely proclaim how most states will trend, I'll get back to you in February or March instead. Smiley Two trends seem to be evident though: Hillary improving on Obama in almost all Southern states by double digits or high single digits, while not improving at all in most Midwestern states (except for Ohio). Most other states will be dependent on her GOP opponent I guess.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2014, 04:51:46 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 12, 2014, 02:25:20 AM


Assuming Hillary wins by the same margin as Obama did in 2012.

Utah is going to trend Republican?  Do you think Romney is going to be the GOP nominee again, or what?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2014, 05:09:39 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 12, 2014, 04:51:46 AM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 12, 2014, 02:25:20 AM


Assuming Hillary wins by the same margin as Obama did in 2012.

Utah is going to trend Republican?  Do you think Romney is going to be the GOP nominee again, or what?

He is counting on a Huntsman/Romney ticket for sure. Tongue That would be a strong ticket actually, not only in Utah. Huntsman would be much stronger than Christie no doubt.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2014, 12:51:07 PM »

My best guess is that the 2016 trend map would show the South trending towards the Democrats and the Midwest, Great Plains and parts of the Northeast and West Coast trending more towards the Republicans. The trend map might actually look a bit like the results of the 1976 election.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2014, 12:58:43 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 12, 2014, 04:51:46 AM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 12, 2014, 02:25:20 AM


Assuming Hillary wins by the same margin as Obama did in 2012.

Utah is going to trend Republican?  Do you think Romney is going to be the GOP nominee again, or what?

Good point, I forgot that was the one place Romney actually got a home state bonus. Tongue Fixed.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2014, 09:20:14 PM »


This is how I see it, with the grey representing little to no change.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2014, 09:28:08 PM »
There will probably be some similarity to the Clinton-Obama differential map from SUSA's 2008 polling:
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