Is the 2004 map still useful as a a basis?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

The 2004 Map:

Is this still a good basis for elections on the presidential level? (With the obvious exceptions of Ohio, Florida, and other swing states)

[IceSpear]

No because of NM/NV, and to a lesser extent VA.

[Devils30]

No. The GOP needs a path without Nevada, New Mexico and probably Virginia at this point. In the future I expect Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania and North Carolina to be tipping point states with Virginia leaning D.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Nevada and New Mexico are pretty much in the likely D column automatically now, and Colorado leans D.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is how I see the 2004 scenario...

How I see the current situation...

[New_Conservative]

Nevada and New Mexico are pretty much in the likely D column automatically now, and Colorado leans D.

I wouldn't say likely D, more like lean D.

[sg0508]

I agree about CO, NV and NM, but not with VA.  The Old Dominion is still a tossup at this point.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

No, it's unrepresentative of the changes in the Western U.S.   

[Cory]

No, it's unrepresentative of the changes in the Western U.S.   

This and the Upper South.

[dmmidmi]

It's useful in that the Kerry states would be the last states Democrats would lose.

With a couple of exceptions (most notably New Mexico), this is the Democratic baseline. Republicans would have to win pretty big in order to win any of the Kerry states.

[NHI]

DEM: 251
REP: 206

Kerry states + NM look to be the minimum for the Dems now.

[Rockefeller GOP]

DEM: 251
REP: 206

Kerry states + NM look to be the minimum for the Dems now.

You'd know more than I, but I wouldn't initially include NH in the Dems' FLOOR...

[spacecoyote]

Kerry states + NM look to be the minimum for the Dems now.

NH could be put in the tossup column if someone like Christie was running. Obama only won it by 5.6% in 2012. NV however was won by Obama by 6.7%. 4 yrs of Hispanic growth has to be worth at least a couple points. My bet is that NV leans more D in 2016 than Georgia leans R (Obama lost their by 7.8%.

However, that's all kind of irrelevant. It's not impossible but I think its unlikely that any of those states is the tipping point. NV has too strong of a Dem lean and NH has too few electoral votes. WI, MI, MN, and PA might be close too but I don't think they decide the election either.

My tipping point states are... OH, CO, IA, FL, and VA. NC might be a tossup but it isn't a tipping point state. It would just be icing on the cake if the Dems one it.

Republicans need to sweep the three big ones (OH, FL, and VA) and one of IA or CO.

[Nichlemn]

It's not quite right, but it's pretty darn close, which is pretty unusual from a historical standpoint.

For instance, the 1996 map was quite a bit worse at predicting 2004 than 2004 was at predicting 2012. None of the Bush 04 states are lost causes today for the Republicans in the same way that say, TN or KY are/were for Ds. Even NM, the state that's swung the most, voted only 53% for Obama in 2012, while even by 2004 Bush was winning over 56% in several Clinton states.

[Nichlemn]

If Romney had won the same percentage as Bush had in 04 (on a universal swing), he'd lose NM and NV, but gain PA and NH.

[Vega]

Not really because of the change out west.

[Cory]

[Holmes]

It's the Democrats' floor and the Republican's ceiling.

[solarstorm]

Yes, on one condition: Add New Mexico to the Democratic column, and you'll have the Republican ceiling.

[Mister Mets]

It's not perfect, but it's generally useful. Texas has not suddenly gone to the Democrats, and New York has not suddenly gone to the Republicans.

There are some departures, especially if you compare how states were relative to the popular vote.

New Mexico has become a bit more liberal. Pennsylvania is getting closer to the national vote.

It would gives you clues what to expect in a close election, or in big wins for Republicans and Democrats.