Kerry states + NM look to be the minimum for the Dems now.
NH could be put in the tossup column if someone like Christie was running. Obama only won it by 5.6% in 2012. NV however was won by Obama by 6.7%. 4 yrs of Hispanic growth has to be worth at least a couple points. My bet is that NV leans more D in 2016 than Georgia leans R (Obama lost their by 7.8%.
However, that's all kind of irrelevant. It's not impossible but I think its unlikely that any of those states is the tipping point. NV has too strong of a Dem lean and NH has too few electoral votes. WI, MI, MN, and PA might be close too but I don't think they decide the election either.
My tipping point states are... OH, CO, IA, FL, and VA. NC might be a tossup but it isn't a tipping point state. It would just be icing on the cake if the Dems one it.
Republicans need to sweep the three big ones (OH, FL, and VA) and one of IA or CO.
