Is the 2004 map still useful as a a basis?

[Nichlemn]

It's not quite right, but it's pretty darn close, which is pretty unusual from a historical standpoint.

For instance, the 1996 map was quite a bit worse at predicting 2004 than 2004 was at predicting 2012. None of the Bush 04 states are lost causes today for the Republicans in the same way that say, TN or KY are/were for Ds. Even NM, the state that's swung the most, voted only 53% for Obama in 2012, while even by 2004 Bush was winning over 56% in several Clinton states.

[Nichlemn]

If Romney had won the same percentage as Bush had in 04 (on a universal swing), he'd lose NM and NV, but gain PA and NH.