Ohio in 2016
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Author Topic: Ohio in 2016  (Read 1381 times)
Devils30
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« on: October 09, 2014, 01:13:06 PM »

While some will still see it as Americas ultimate swing state, I see Ohio as Hillary's 320th-350th electoral vote rather than a crucial state. For one I think Virginia and Florida are likely to go Dem ahead of Ohio next time around (unless jeb is the nominee and hillary still leads him in FL anyway). Ohio might be more on par with North Carolina as far as PVI goes and I expect R +1-2. Florida only needs a 3% democratic trend to become a tipping point and judging by Hillary's polls it's fairly plausible.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2014, 02:54:17 PM »

Translation: moar Hillary wank
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2014, 03:49:00 PM »
« Edited: October 09, 2014, 04:56:51 PM by pbrower2a »

Any state could do something uncharacteristic between 2012 and 2016. I don't have an easy way to pick whether Ohio has the electoral votes around the 270th (which it would have been in 2004 for Kerry) or 350th (Clinton's 350th electoral vote being near the 'last' electoral vote of Ohio). It all depends upon characteristics of the 2016 Presidential election that have yet to be set.  

We have seen a Democrat win over 400 electoral votes only once since the FDR era, and that was a freakish event with the Republicans nominating someone who scared millions of people who never vote Democratic to vote against someone who could be associated with a mushroom cloud.  Since 1944, electoral blowouts have been by Republican nominees.

In non-blowout elections beginning in 1960 (1968 excepted), Ohio has been electoral votes from ...


Ohio as electoral votes  for the Democrat:


YEAR    w/o with

1960   391  416 (Kennedy won without Ohio!)
1976   272  297 (Carter's barest win)
1992   332  353 (Clinton 370 electoral votes)
1996   291  312 (Clinton 379 electoral votes)
2000   307  328 (Florida decided it all)
2004   263  283 (Ohio was for once the tipping-point state that year)
2008   289  309 (Obama 365 electoral votes)
2012   285  303 (Obama's second-barest win, the other one Florida -- 332 electoral votes)

Since 1976 (which is ancient history now with respect to current Presidential elections), Ohio can easily be recognized as only one thing: a Republican-leaning state in close Presidential elections. I see no reason to expect otherwise in 2016.

To have Ohio around 350th electoral votes (341 without, 359 with would be exact) would require Ohio to slip behind Florida and some state or combination of states with either North Carolina or Georgia going ahead of Georgia in the percentage of popular vote. A more precise result would require Florida and nine other electoral votes to go 'past' Ohio. I just don't see that happening. Florida, maybe, but that is as far as it goes.

Except -- if she keeps the Obama coalition intact... and picks up the sorts of voters who went for Carter in 1976 but not for Obama, in which case she is getting an Eisenhower-style win.    



 
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DS0816
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2014, 04:20:55 PM »

Ohio was the only state, in Election 2012, where the male (45%) and female (55%) votes matched that of Barack Obama's national support. Margin spread, statewide vs. nationwide, was 0.87%.

Ohio will continue its bellwether status and carry for the 2016 presidential winner.

I think, given I've mentioned that this is a Democratic presidential realignment period, that Ohio will remain on pace to routinely get carried by the winners. And the interesting thing people want to watch is to see whether a Democrat win the presidency with carriage of Ohio above his/her national margin.
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2014, 06:55:50 PM »

I just think demographics will soon (if not in 2016) push Florida ahead of Ohio for Democrats. Virginia has already passed it along with Colorado. By 2020 or 2024 North Carolina probably will be bluer than Ohio as well. Georgia could be won by Hillary but it won't be anything closer than her 365th electoral vote.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2014, 07:35:26 PM »

Ohio is always and will always be crucial. The Cuyahoga area is crucial for the Democrats. Republicans have to do well near Hamilton County and the Cincinnati area.
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Vega
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2014, 07:41:33 AM »

Ohio is going to be winnable for Democrats probably for many more election cycles, but it's definitely trending R.

Ohio is also going to become less relevant.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2014, 08:14:32 AM »

Ohio is going to be winnable for Democrats probably for many more election cycles, but it's definitely trending R.

Ohio is also going to become less relevant.

True on that. Ohio is going to keep hemorrhaging population and electoral votes. Its cities are old industrial towns whose infrastructure will get increasingly costly to maintain while the tax base erodes (look at Detroit and St. Louis as examples outside Ohio). The only growth area in Ohio is Greater Columbus. The auto industry upon which Ohio depends for much of a once well-paid industrial force (tires, steel) is no longer a growth industry.  The advantages that Ohio once had in having cities relatively close to each other to keep costs of transportation and having a strong agricultural base to keep food inexpensive are now nothing special.
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DS0816
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2014, 02:31:07 AM »

Ohio is always and will always be crucial. The Cuyahoga area is crucial for the Democrats. Republicans have to do well near Hamilton County and the Cincinnati area.

^ This! ^

Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry Hamilton County in 2008 since Lyndon Johnson from 1964.

Obama carried Hamilton County, in both 2008 and 2012, above his Ohio margins.

I disagree with those thinking demographics will have the state of Ohio trend Republican. No Republican can carry Ohio if they're not carrying Hamilton County.

And the talk of demographics isn't the entire picture. After all, Obama carried Iowa in both his elections in part because he carried the state's white voters. They were more than 90 percent of the size of the state's vote in both 2008 and 2012. And Iowa tilts a couple percentage points more Democratic than national margins.

This means people's backgrounds, from particular states, says more than what is general considered.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2014, 03:46:53 AM »

Ohio is always and will always be crucial. The Cuyahoga area is crucial for the Democrats. Republicans have to do well near Hamilton County and the Cincinnati area.

^ This! ^

Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry Hamilton County in 2008 since Lyndon Johnson from 1964.

Obama carried Hamilton County, in both 2008 and 2012, above his Ohio margins.

I disagree with those thinking demographics will have the state of Ohio trend Republican. No Republican can carry Ohio if they're not carrying Hamilton County.

And the talk of demographics isn't the entire picture. After all, Obama carried Iowa in both his elections in part because he carried the state's white voters. They were more than 90 percent of the size of the state's vote in both 2008 and 2012. And Iowa tilts a couple percentage points more Democratic than national margins.

This means people's backgrounds, from particular states, says more than what is general considered.

Iowa was an odd case. Obama would have lost 46 states if only whites voted, but he still would have won Iowa.
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DS0816
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2014, 03:07:30 PM »

Ohio is always and will always be crucial. The Cuyahoga area is crucial for the Democrats. Republicans have to do well near Hamilton County and the Cincinnati area.

^ This! ^

Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry Hamilton County in 2008 since Lyndon Johnson from 1964.

Obama carried Hamilton County, in both 2008 and 2012, above his Ohio margins.

I disagree with those thinking demographics will have the state of Ohio trend Republican. No Republican can carry Ohio if they're not carrying Hamilton County.

And the talk of demographics isn't the entire picture. After all, Obama carried Iowa in both his elections in part because he carried the state's white voters. They were more than 90 percent of the size of the state's vote in both 2008 and 2012. And Iowa tilts a couple percentage points more Democratic than national margins.

This means people's backgrounds, from particular states, says more than what is general considered.

Iowa was an odd case. Obama would have lost 46 states if only whites voted, but he still would have won Iowa.

No. Iowa was not "an odd case." It's not the only state with level of whites' voting size. People have become so carried away with talking up demographics that they come across sounding as it that's the only thing that determines victory.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2014, 04:11:17 PM »

I think Ohio will be just slightly to the right of both the national average and Virginia in 2016, as it was last time, but I doubt that will be to the right of Florida or North Carolina just yet.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2014, 01:43:41 PM »

I think the one uncharacteristic state in 2016 will be Colorado. While Hillary wins in a landslide, Colorado, which this year is going to elect a Republican Legislature, Governor, and Senator, is going to go red in 2016 according to the polls.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2014, 12:14:58 PM »

I think the one uncharacteristic state in 2016 will be Colorado. While Hillary wins in a landslide might win by a few points, Colorado, which this year is going to elect a Republican Legislature, Governor, and Senator, is going to go red in 2016 according to the polls.
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Devils30
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2014, 12:22:24 PM »

Doubt she'd lose Colorado in a landslide win. She might win 54% nationally and get 51-52% in Colorado but with Presidential turnout she should win it. Not sure the GOP is winning everything there, Hickenlooper might survive and they might only win one legislative house.
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Person Man
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2014, 03:34:42 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2014, 03:38:28 PM by MooMooMoo »

Doubt she'd lose Colorado in a landslide win. She might win 54% nationally and get 51-52% in Colorado but with Presidential turnout she should win it. Not sure the GOP is winning everything there, Hickenlooper might survive and they might only win one legislative house.

Most polls do have him up, I see a lot more red than blue or grey and its consistent. And even Republican cheerleaders like backtored aren't totally confident in the GOP's house prospects. However, if the Democrats do stay at the helm in Colorado, it could actually make them bigger targets in 2016. If Republicans do sweep in 2014 (I saw on the wikipedia page that the last time they actually totally swept was in 1972), they will be big targets in 2016, 2018 and 2020..and especially because Beauprez, while getting elected making sweetheart deals with big oil (deregulating drilling) and being tough on crime (kill Dunlap and re legalize gun shows) will probably overreach on marijuana, austerity on K-12, the environment and gender rights.

All in all, I think what happens locally will determine which swing states will be important. (which states will quickly swing to the winner, which states will swing to the winner, but won't ultimately be needed, and which states will swing the other way).
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