Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize 2014?

[eric82oslo]

Another year, another peace prize. We're already reaching the end of the nobel Nobel Week and tomorrow, Friday, the final one of them, and some say most prestigious, the Nobel Peace Prize, will be announced. So who will win it? A record 278 candidates have been nominated, and up above in my poll you can find 38 of the most frequently mentioned names, by bookmakers and media outlets. You can vote for up to 7 candidates who'd you think would be most likely to receive the prize this year.

[Vosem]

It doesn't matter because any moral authority the prize might once have had has long since been lost.

[eric82oslo]

It doesn't matter because any moral authority the prize might once have had has long since been lost.

Okey mister Smartass.
Next year, most of the committee will change btw.
I'd say it's morally just now than before, when only Europeans and North Americans won the prize and Mohathma Gandhi was not found worthy to win it. (Although he probably would have won it in 1948 if he was not shot dead.)

[useful idiot]

Barack Obama will win again. They gave it to him the first time for what he might do, now they'll give it to him for the things he should and could have done...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't think a single option on the poll deserves it.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I hope it's Malala.

[Niemeyerite]

Silvio Berlusconi or Vladimir Putin.

[eric82oslo]

Silvio Berlusconi or Vladimir Putin.

I can't believe Putin and Tony Blair are even included as options with bookmakers. It's probably a joke though. Although I'm sure some Russian parliamentarians have probably nominated their great leader.

[eric82oslo]

According to NRK, the Norwegian broadcaster - which may or may not have inside information (more likely not though) - the current Tunisian president and (former) human rights activist, Moncef Marzouki, is one of the hottest candidates this year. (http://www.nrk.no/nobel/kan-en-av-disse-fa-fredsprisen_-1.11977584)

[Velasco]

Silvio Berlusconi or Vladimir Putin.

I can't believe Putin and Tony Blair are even included as options with bookmakers. It's probably a joke though. Although I'm sure some Russian parliamentarians have probably nominated their great leader.

It's obviously a joke nominating Putin or Berlusconi, but the president of the Russian Federation was amongst the 2013 nominees and Henry Kissinger was awarded with the prize in 1973, so...

I'm unable to predict this years' winner. I like José Mújica and Pope Francis (or maybe that Doctor's NGA). If Bono ever wins the award, I'll have to cut my veins (not really, this award is sometimes bizarre and everything is possible).

[eric82oslo]

I'm unable to predict this years' winner. I like José Mújica and Pope Francis (or maybe that Doctor's NGA). If Bono ever wins the award, I'll have to cut my veins (not really, this award is sometimes bizarre and everything is possible).

What's wrong with Bono? I like him. Although if he'd get the award, he'd get it ten years ago, and not now. As that was when he was really politicially active with the African debt relief efforts.

I think there's a strong possibility for a shared prize this year (well honestly it is every year). Some combinations I've thought of include Pope Francis sharing it with ILGA and José Mujica, since the two things Francis has been most known for is his outreach to the poor of the world as well as to gay people. Another possible combination would be the Novaya Gazeta editorial/press corps sharing it with Edward Snowden (and/or possibly Julian Assange, Chelsea Manning as well). Making it a joint Russian-American press freedom award. I think Snowden is a much more likely recipient than either Assange or Manning though. I've been waiting for a Russian human rights activist and/or journalist to win the prize for more than the past five years now. I thought it was much longer overdue than giving it to a Chinese human rights activist like they did in 2010. In a year when several journalists have been beheaded and while press freedom has reached (near) rock bottom in Russia and Turkey and probably other countries as well, I think it's in the spirit of the day to focus on press freedom this year in particular.

[Famous Mortimer]

According to NRK, the Norwegian broadcaster - which may or may not have inside information (more likely not though) - the current Tunisian president and (former) human rights activist, Moncef Marzouki, is one of the hottest candidates this year. (http://www.nrk.no/nobel/kan-en-av-disse-fa-fredsprisen_-1.11977584)

Gag. What has this gone done other than be a fig leaf to Islamists?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Given that Bill Clinton is a war criminal and that Bono and Bill Gates are both complicit in their efforts to put a smile on predatory neoliberal capitalism I hope/assume it will be neither of them. In terms of actual actions, Snowden is probably the best choice.

[eric82oslo]

Given that Bill Clinton is a war criminal and that Bono and Bill Gates are both complicit in their efforts to put a smile on predatory neoliberal capitalism I hope/assume it will be neither of them. In terms of actual actions, Snowden is probably the best choice.

You think health care for poor Africans is neoliberal capitalism? I wonder what Obamacare is then. Fascism?

Which made me think of the possibility of Gates sharing the price with Doctors Without Borders. Although I honestly think the chance of them getting the prize again, so few years after last time, is really slim. Even if they're doing one of the most important, if not the single most important, jobs in the world at the moment.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

At least a 3rd of that list is ridiculously bad.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Given that Bill Clinton is a war criminal and that Bono and Bill Gates are both complicit in their efforts to put a smile on predatory neoliberal capitalism I hope/assume it will be neither of them. In terms of actual actions, Snowden is probably the best choice.

You think health care for poor Africans is neoliberal capitalism? I wonder what Obamacare is then. Fascism?

Yes and sort of (not fascist in and of itself but the said nature of state-HMO cooperation is reminiscent of corporatism).

[moderatevoter]

Given that Bill Clinton is a war criminal and that Bono and Bill Gates are both complicit in their efforts to put a smile on predatory neoliberal capitalism I hope/assume it will be neither of them. In terms of actual actions, Snowden is probably the best choice.

You think health care for poor Africans is neoliberal capitalism? I wonder what Obamacare is then. Fascism?

Don't forget this gem:

And of course the Obamabots rush to defend their messiah's Heritage Foundation plan. Obamacare is an utter joke, an insult to advocates of actual health care reform (i.e. nationalization) and I hope it fails. The neoliberal cancer needs to be exterminated,even if cutting it off may hurt.

[eric82oslo]

What the international press writes about the imminent decision: https://www.google.no/search?hl=no&gl=no&tbm=nws&authuser=0&q=the+nobel+peace+prize&oq=the+nobel+peace+prize&gs_l=news-cc.3..43j43i53.31958.37892.0.38766.21.1.0.20.0.0.77.77.1.1.0...0.0...1ac.1.uNyEClhGVE0

The British newspaper The Telegraph has this poll going: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11148231/Poll-Who-deserves-to-win-the-2014-Nobel-Peace-Prize.html

They've only included 5 options though, and the current results are like these:

1. Pope Francis - 33.3%
2. Dennis Mukwege - 31.2%
3. Malala Yousafzai - 26%
4. Gene Sharp - 6.7%
5. Ban-ki Moon - 3%

The article also mentions that of the 278 nominations, 47 are organizations and the remaining 231 are individuals.


Here's a similar poll from The Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/10/09/6-people-who-seem-like-naturals-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-but-never-won-it/

1. Pope Francis - 42.7%
2. Malala - 27.7%
3. Edward Snowden - 14.2%
4. Denis Mukwege - 7.6%
5. Novaya Gazeta - 4.1%
6. Japanese People who conserve Article 9 (making it constitutionally illegal for Japan to go to war) - 4%

[eric82oslo]

Here's the results of another poll from another British newspaper, The Guardian:

1. Edward Snowden - 48%
2. Malala - 37%
3. Afghanistan's Women's Shelters - 26%
4. Pussy Riots - 21%
5. Samira Salih al-Nuaimi (another journalist executed by ISIS) - 17%
6. Chelsea/Bradley Manning - 15%
7. Helmut Kohl (for the reunification of Germany, 25 year celebration of the fall of the Berlin Wall) - 14%
8. Novaya Gazeta - 11%
8. Ban-ki Moon - 11%

It's actually two distinct polls, so the total amounts to 200%.

Read more about the nominees here: http://www.theguardian.com/world/poll/2014/oct/07/nobel-peace-prize-2014-nominees-vote-poll#votehere

[Maistre]

Bergoglio.

[eric82oslo]

Here's a short list of who is known to have been nominated this year, by whom they were nominated and exactly why they were or might have been nominated, as listed by the director/CEO of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, who each year makes his own top 5 shortlist of most worthy or likely winners (last year he had Malala on top, this year she's ranked 5th on his list):


##Igor Kochetkov (Russia), Frank Mugisha (Uganda), Sunil Babu Pant (Nepal) and ILGA, The International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association; for their fights for LGBT rights. Nominated by Norwegian MPs from Labour, Anette Trettebergstuen and Håkon Haugli.

##Catherine Ashton, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security policy, along with Prime Ministers of Serbia and Kosovo, Ivaca Dačić and Hashim Thaçi. Nominated by European Parliament member Johannes Swoboda (Austria), President of the Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialist & Democrats in the European Parliament, for the three's conciliatory efforts in Balkan.

##Edward Snowden, US surveillance whistleblower. Nominated by Norwegian MPs from Socialist Left, Snorre Valen and Bård Vegar Solhjell

##Denis Mukwege, Congolese gynaecologist and advocate against sexual violence. Confirmed nomination by Norwegian MPs from Socialist Left, Karin Andersen and Audun Lysbakken.

##National Priorities Project, a US research organization nominated by the International Peace Bureau for its "clear and steadfast commitment to re-allocating the enormous sums devoted to the military".

##Ales Bialitski, Belarusian human rights activist. Nominated by Polish MPs.

##Yuan Longping, the Chinese 'father of hybrid rice', along with Indian geneticist Mankombu Sambasivan Swaminathan. Nominated by Norwegian MP from Centre Party, Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, for their contributions to food security and provision.

##Vladimir Putin, President of Russia. Reportedly nominated by the International Academy of Spiritual Unity and Cooperation Among the Nations of the World and backed by Russian MP Iosif Kobzon, for his averting of an air strike on Syria after the chemical gas attacks in August 2013.

##Mother Agnes Mariam of the Cross (Fadia Laham) and the Mussalaha (Reconciliation) Initiative in Syria. Nominated by Peace Prize laureate Mairead Maguire.

##Malala Yousafzai. Nominated by Norwegian MPs from Labour, Magne Rommetveit and Freddy de Ruiter.

##The Giulio Andreotti Institute and Secret Archives and its Director, Patricia Chilelli. Confirmed by US nominator

##Chelsea Manning, US whistleblower. Nominated (jointly with Manning) by Icelandic MP from the Pirate Party, Birgitta Jónsdóttir.

##José Mujica, President of Uruguay. Nominated by the Drugs Peace Institute, for his legalizing of marijuana.

##James Anaya, UN Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Nominated by Norwegian MP from Socialist Left, Torgeir Knag Fylkesnes.

##The "people of Lampedusa, represented by the highest authority of the island". Nominated by Norwegian Professor Elisabeth Eide, in the context of their receiving of and co-existence with boat refugees coming to the island.

##The International Space Station (ISS) is nominated, according to Space Safety Magazine.

##Jockin Arputham and Shack/Slum Dwellers International. Nominated by Swedish Minister for Public Administration and Housing, Stefan Attefall, for their decades of struggle for the poor, against urban inequality and social strife.

##Gene Sharp, nonviolence advocate and peace researcher. Nominated by the American Friends Service Committee.

##The Nansen Dialogue Network. Nominated by Bosnia and Herzegovina Minister of Education and Science, Damir Mašić, for the organization's work to rebuild trust and confidence in the Balkans.

##Military Religious Freedom Foundation provides a nomination text on their website (nominator's name omitted).

##Article Nine of the Japanese Constitution has apparently been nominated by a group of university professors (though it is somewhat unclear which legal entity is nominated). Article Nine came into effect in 1947 and renounces Japan's right to engage in war or to maintain military forces.

##Abdullah Öcalan, founder of the militant organization Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) was nominated by Iraqi MP Heval Kostani, but presumably too late for the 2014 prize.

##Tunisia's labour union UGTT nominated for its role in the mediation and compromise between the secular and religious political sides in Tunisia, following the uprisings in 2011 and the ensuing end of the Ben Ali dictatorship.

##Dr Catherine Hamlin, nominated by Ethiopian Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr. Tedros Edhanom, for her work on the treatment and prevention of obstetric fistula in Ethiopia.

##Benny Wenda, founder of the Free West Papua Campaign, reports to have been nominated by a group of politicians as well as a British reverend.

##Bridges Academy, an Afghan education initative taking place amongst other places in camps for internally displaced refugees. Nominated by James C. Toole from University of Minnesota. Read more about BA here.

(##There is also debate over a nomination and potential prize to Canadian PM Stephen Harper. B’nai Brith of Canada announced this autumn that they would nominate Harper. This would in effect mean a nomination for the 2015 prize, however, given the late submission. Moreover, as noted above, there are limitations to who has the right to nominate.)


More here: http://www.prio.org/About/PeacePrize/PRIO-Directors-Speculations-2014/

[eric82oslo]

These are the fields in which the highest number of laureates/winners have been active:

1. Peace Movements - 39 winners (1901-2011)
2. Negotiation (Peace Accords) - 33 winners (1906-2008)
3. World Organizing - 26 winners (1903-2012)
4. Human Rights - 25 winners (1935-2012)
5. Humanitarian Work - 24 winners (1901-2007)
6. Arms Control & Disarmament - 19 winners (1933-2013)
7. Women's Rights - 3 winners (2011)

More details here: http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/fields.html

[IceSpear]

Given that Bill Clinton is a war criminal and that Bono and Bill Gates are both complicit in their efforts to put a smile on predatory neoliberal capitalism I hope/assume it will be neither of them. In terms of actual actions, Snowden is probably the best choice.

[NewYorkExpress]

Malala would be my pick, but given who's targeting her, that may be more like a death knell...

[eric82oslo]

15 minutes left.