World-renown horror author Stephen King whole-heartedly endorses Shenna Bellows

[eric82oslo]

Could this be a game changer? One of the world's most famous authors, perhaps the world's most famous horror author since Agatha Christie, who happens to be from Maine himself, says he's never worked so hard and tirelessly for anyone politically as he's now working to elect Shenna Bellows for the Senate.

See the ad here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/posttv/politics/campaign-2014-shenna-bellows-stephen-king/2014/10/09/958de118-4fbc-11e4-877c-335b53ffe736_video.html

[Mogrovejo]

No.

Stephen King has always been a staunch Democrat that always endorses/fundraises for Dems. Why would it be a game changer this year? Most people don't care about endorsements and even less about endorsements from people they know to be partisan.

[traininthedistance]

Also Agatha Christie isn't a "horror" author.

[eric82oslo]

Also Agatha Christie isn't a "horror" author.

Okey, crime/suspense author then.

[eric82oslo]

No.

Stephen King has always been a staunch Democrat that always endorses/fundraises for Dems. Why would it be a game changer this year? Most people don't care about endorsements and even less about endorsements from people they know to be partisan.

Who else did he support?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could this be a game changer?

[eric82oslo]

Could this be a game changer?

I think people actually listen more to Stephen King in Maine than to Susan Collins. Or did I miss something and Susan Collins at some point happened to be a world-renown politician?

[tmthforu94]

Stop trying to make Senator Bellows happen. It's not going to happen.

[Mogrovejo]

No.

Stephen King has always been a staunch Democrat that always endorses/fundraises for Dems. Why would it be a game changer this year? Most people don't care about endorsements and even less about endorsements from people they know to be partisan.

Who else did he support?

I actually don't know if you're serious or trolling. But what Democrats he didn't support?

Here's him announcing a fundraiser for Susan Collins' last opponent in his own website: http://stephenking.com/newsletter/display.php?List=1&N=55

Tom Allen, a 6 term congressman, went on to lose by 23 points to Collins - in 2008.

There just aren't many people who factor who their favorite writer or celebrity is endorsing on their voting decision. And those who do tend to be below the legal voting age.

[eric82oslo]

Stop trying to make Senator Bellows happen. It's not going to happen.

For Kansas it ain't for sure.
If she finishes strongly this time around, she might run again in a few years.

[eric82oslo]

No.

Stephen King has always been a staunch Democrat that always endorses/fundraises for Dems. Why would it be a game changer this year? Most people don't care about endorsements and even less about endorsements from people they know to be partisan.

Who else did he support?

I actually don't know if you're serious or trolling. But what Democrats he didn't support?

Here's him announcing a fundraiser for Susan Collins' last opponent in his own website: http://stephenking.com/newsletter/display.php?List=1&N=55

Tom Allen, a 6 term congressman, went on to lose by 23 points to Collins - in 2008.

There just aren't many people who factor who their favorite writer or celebrity is endorsing on their voting decision. And those who do tend to be below the legal voting age.

Why would I be trolling? I didn't know that Stephen King was politically active until today. To my knowledge, that's not what he's famous for. I think very few people in Norway know about this side to mister King.

So you're suggesting that people don't have an influence on other people, in particular on undecideds, moderates, independents? That's not what I've learned from psychology. Also, Maine is perhaps the least polarized, or close to least polarized state in the US. So expect there to be a particularily high percentage of undecideds and independent-minded adults there. No I'm not talking youngsters or babies, contrary to what your condescending mind might think.

[SWE]

D+1

[Vosem]

True, but King has been doing this for years and years. Susan Collins' last opponent, who was much better-known and ran in a much better year than Bellows, also received strong support from King. In 2010, Stephen King endorsed Democratic candidate Libby Mitchell ( http://bangordailynews.com/2010/06/17/politics/stephen-king-maine-dems-rally-behind-mitchell/ ), who finished in third place with just 19% of the vote. This is just not something that will in any way change the game for Bellows.

[free my dawg]

As the biggest Shenna stan on the forum...

Hell no.

[eric82oslo]

True, but King has been doing this for years and years. Susan Collins' last opponent, who was much better-known and ran in a much better year than Bellows, also received strong support from King. In 2010, Stephen King endorsed Democratic candidate Libby Mitchell ( http://bangordailynews.com/2010/06/17/politics/stephen-king-maine-dems-rally-behind-mitchell/ ), who finished in third place with just 19% of the vote. This is just not something that will in any way change the game for Bellows.

Nice. (Although I don't know anything about this Mitchell. )

[Vosem]

True, but King has been doing this for years and years. Susan Collins' last opponent, who was much better-known and ran in a much better year than Bellows, also received strong support from King. In 2010, Stephen King endorsed Democratic candidate Libby Mitchell ( http://bangordailynews.com/2010/06/17/politics/stephen-king-maine-dems-rally-behind-mitchell/ ), who finished in third place with just 19% of the vote. This is just not something that will in any way change the game for Bellows.

Nice. (Although I don't know anything about this Mitchell. )

She has been a pretty prominent Maine Democratic politician, pretty standard center-left, since she was first elected to the state House of Representatives in 1974. Her two statewide runs -- in 1982 for the Senate and in 2010 for Governor -- were both massively unsuccessful, with 24% and then 19% of the vote; in spite of having King's strong support the second time around. She was speaker of the state House in the 1990s, and then state Senate President for two years after the 2008 election.

[Panda Express]

Could this be a game changer?

No, that's not how American politics works. I like Bellows but she's going to be slaughtered. She'll do worse than Tim Allen in 2008. You need to accept that.

[eric82oslo]

Could this be a game changer?

No, that's not how American politics works. I like Bellows but she's going to be slaughtered. She'll do worse than Tim Allen in 2008. You need to accept that.

She has done better in every poll that has come out, so this is not really true. She started out about 40% behind Collins, now she's only 20-something behind. She's at the verge of doing better than Tennant in WV, which was considered being in one of the most competitive of races only months ago.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

This is hilarious. I would vote for her, yet this topic is just absurd.

[Horus]

I would absolutely love to see Shenna Bellows win, probably moreso than any other candidate this cycle. Unfortunately, she can't until Collins retires.

[IceSpear]

No

[Free Bird]

Stop trying to make Senator Bellows happen. It's not going to happen.

[Mogrovejo]

No.

Stephen King has always been a staunch Democrat that always endorses/fundraises for Dems. Why would it be a game changer this year? Most people don't care about endorsements and even less about endorsements from people they know to be partisan.

Who else did he support?

I actually don't know if you're serious or trolling. But what Democrats he didn't support?

Here's him announcing a fundraiser for Susan Collins' last opponent in his own website: http://stephenking.com/newsletter/display.php?List=1&N=55

Tom Allen, a 6 term congressman, went on to lose by 23 points to Collins - in 2008.

There just aren't many people who factor who their favorite writer or celebrity is endorsing on their voting decision. And those who do tend to be below the legal voting age.

Why would I be trolling? I didn't know that Stephen King was politically active until today. To my knowledge, that's not what he's famous for. I think very few people in Norway know about this side to mister King.

Sure, but I addressed that in my first reply.

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Not really. Only that these endorsements have a negligible effect on electoral outcomes, if any.

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I'm puzzled. Leaving aside the percentage of undecideds (in the YouGov polls, there are 2 states with 6% undecideds, WY and NC, a handful with 8% and the Maine comes right away with 9% - so it seems to have a particularly low % of undecideds), why do you think that a celebrity endorsment would be more effective in a state with a  particularly high percentage of independent-minded adults (assuming that Maine has for some reason more independent-minded adults that any other place)? That seems contradictory, or at least a non-sequitur. It seems more likely that an endorsement would be even less effective in that scenario, no?

FWIW, standard theory suggest endorsement tend to have some impact in primary races with little know contenders (especially in the absence of an incumbent) and less impact in general elections with a long-term incumbent. That seems to make sense - when there is no ideological divide and people don't know the candidates well, endorsements might sway them. When there is an ideological divide and people are familiar with at least one of the candidates, it's hard to see endorsements making any sort of impact - especially when they come from people who are unabashedly partisan like King.

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Oh I didn't mean any sort of condescension, I'm sorry if it sounded that way, I'll be more careful with my phrasing. I actually think this sort of endorsements -a partisan celebrity-, if they have any effect, it'll be with very young, lower info, voters.

[Mogrovejo]

Could this be a game changer?

No, that's not how American politics works. I like Bellows but she's going to be slaughtered. She'll do worse than Tim Allen in 2008. You need to accept that.

She has done better in every poll that has come out, so this is not really true. She started out about 40% behind Collins, now she's only 20-something behind. She's at the verge of doing better than Tennant in WV, which was considered being in one of the most competitive of races only months ago.

Allen lost by +23; Bellows is 27 points behind in the RCP average and 24 down in her best poll. Collins isn't Snowed, she's won her races by an average of 15 points. And frankly, if she loses by less than Allen it'll mostly be due to Collins running scared and campaigning very hard in 2008. Those 40 points polls were about name recognition.

[eric82oslo]

According to 538, the Maine Senate race is the single one of the 36 Senate races this year which has moved the most during the past month and a half. So now, everyone who's been picking on me for claiming this simple fact, can take a deeeeep, deep breath. Maybe I wasn't so shamefully wrong after all, despite your handful or three lame and deeply insulting jokes that I was borderline insane.

The 538 forecast calculates that Maine has moved 13.1% towards Bellows since September 3, while the vast majority of races have moved less than 5%: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-a-lot-has-changed-and-mostly-stayed-the-same/