FiveThirtyEight: Republicans Fortunes Rise in Alaska

[JRP1994]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-republican-fortunes-rise-in-alaska/

[Mogrovejo]

Always thought Begich was the most endangered incumbent. Pretty much for the same reasons stated by Silver. There's simply no path for Begich absent very abnormal events. He'd probably have to convince reliable Republican voters who even voted for Stevens -a convicted fellon that had his own party presidential ticket asking him to step down- over him to turn around and vote for him even thought they disapprove of his and Obama's job. Way too complicated.

[Marston]

I don't think anyone has any idea about what's going to happen in Alaska. Sullivan is up in the polls, but Alaska polls are notorious crap. You also have to factor in Begich's unparalleled ground game and GOTV operation in the bush.

[Mehmentum]

Begich barely won against a convicted felon in a Democratic wave year.  He's down by four in the polls in a state where the polls always overestimate the Democrats.  There's only so much a good ground game can do.

[Brittain33]

Stevens wasn't convicted until after the election, FWIW.

[The Other Castro]

Stevens wasn't convicted until after the election, FWIW.

He was convicted on October 27, 2008

[Del Tachi]

I don't think anyone has any idea about what's going to happen in Alaska. Sullivan is up in the polls, but Alaska polls are notorious crap. You also have to factor in Begich's unparalleled ground game and GOTV operation in the bush.

The Bush is going to save Begich?

45% of the population lives in Anchorage.  Rural votes are not enough to make up the difference for Begich. 

[Brittain33]

Stevens wasn't convicted until after the election, FWIW.

He was convicted on October 27, 2008

My bad, I misread as November 27 when I checked this.

[Marston]

I don't think anyone has any idea about what's going to happen in Alaska. Sullivan is up in the polls, but Alaska polls are notorious crap. You also have to factor in Begich's unparalleled ground game and GOTV operation in the bush.

The Bush is going to save Begich?

45% of the population lives in Anchorage.  Rural votes are not enough to make up the difference for Begich.  

Begich was Mayor of Anchorage before he unseated Stevens.

Everyone here is assuming that Stevens almost beat Begich because of a pro-Republican coming home effect, but I wouldn't dismiss the theory that it could of been because of a pro-incumbency coming home effect, instead.

That's why I'm predicting that Parnell still pulls it out.