IL Gov- Is Rauner completely cooked, or is there any hope?

[sg0508]

After leading by double-digits in August and even into early September, he's now fallen behind by five points or more in a few polls.  Is it near give-up time and is he likely to lose going away, or is there any way to rebound and possibly steal this race from Quinn after all?

From what I read on the forum, it appears his biggest issue (and it's a big problem) is his "image".  Quinn isn't winning this race, but rather Rauner is giving it away.

Thoughts?

[dmmidmi]

This is why Rauner is losing:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rauner ace in hole was term limits. Once scrubbed from ballot,Minimum wage got attention.

[King]

Quinn is already leading in the polls of likely voters. He's going to landslide when unlikely voters that get dragged out of their homes (or graves) in Cook County turn out strong for him yet again.

[President Johnson]

Quinn is already leading in the polls of likely voters. He's going to landslide when unlikely voters that get dragged out of their homes (or graves) in Cook County turn out strong for him yet again.

It won't be a landslide for Quinn. I'm confidant that the incumbent is going to win, but not that big. Maybe with 49% to 46% or so.

[sg0508]

Good point in that we know Cook County tends to have one of the strongest "coming home" effects of any in the country.  So, Quinn is likely to add an additional 2-3 points, if not more to his final polled percentage.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think we're going to have another nailbiter. 1-3 points in either direction. There's definitely still hope for Rauner, but his prospects don't look anywhere near where they did in August, and if I had to choose right now, I'd predict a Quinn victory.

[DrScholl]

This ad won't help much https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT4lbu2VMaY

[Maxwell]

I could see Quinn winning by high single digits or even 10 points now.

[sg0508]

To build on what I was saying concering the "Cook Coming Home" effect, back in '98, Moseley-Braun came out of nowhere late to almost steal that Senate race from Peter Fitzgerald.

So, if Rauner has fallen behind now (even before the "coming home" effect happens), it's not looking good.

[CatoMinor]

Rauner isn't cooked, he is Cook'd.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I think we're going to have another nailbiter. 1-3 points in either direction. There's definitely still hope for Rauner, but his prospects don't look anywhere near where they did in August, and if I had to choose right now, I'd predict a Quinn victory.

It's not completely gone, but it's slipping away. This race really depends on how strong the Cook coming-home effect is, and whether it's strong enough to overcome Rauner's suburban and downstate margins.

[Vosem]

Quinn is favored right now, but I wouldn't count on a last-minute "coming home" -- Quinn overperforming in 2010 was a solitary event, not reflected in any other recent Illinois election I can think of, or even in other elections on the 2010 ballot.

[Vega]

Things can only get worse for Rauner.

[KCDem]

He has already been cooked and is being served.

[Eraserhead]

Don't f**k with Pat Quinn.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Wait, when did this happen? I am going to lose ten bucks to my Uncle on this race and I refuse to let that happen. Does Rauner know any of JFK's friends? Can he get some dead voters to show up at the polls?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wait, when did this happen? I am going to lose ten bucks to my Uncle on this race and I refuse to let that happen. Does Rauner know any of JFK's friends? Can he get some dead voters to show up at the polls?

The dead people that voted for Nixon in the South perhaps.

[Ebowed]

Don't f**k with Pat Quinn.

I am glad that Governor Quinn has been able to achieve this, fingers crossed!

[Bojack Horseman]

Wait, when did this happen?

My thoughts exactly.

[Kevin]

I'll repeat the point-

We may not know where things stand now but the people of Illinois deserve the governor they elect.

[King]

I'll repeat the point-

We may not know where things stand now but the people of Illinois deserve the governor they elect.

Yes, you always repeat your points, year after year...

I don't think that will be the case in Cali since the unions basically own Jerry Brown. Therefore I would have to say that California will eventually default and Brown will ether be defeated in 2014, primaried, or forced to retire due to unpopularity.

I also can't see things be much different in Illinois ether

[muon2]

Here is today's screenshot of the rolling poll average on HuffPo. The interesting feature is the widening error bands which indicates less confidence that either candidate is actually in the lead.



The wildcard is how much anti-Quinn vote will go to the Libertarian as a protest against the negative advertising. Advertising for the independent Cohen in 2010 was a key factor in Quinn's win over Brady when compared to Kirk's success in the concurrent Senate race. Union money is now going to the Libertarian Grimm to push conservative voters away from Rauner due to his moderate stance on key social issues. I have received two push polls backing Grimm from independent polling firms that generally poll for Dems in the last week and a half, and both polls stressed social conservative issues.

[Mr. Illini]

Rauner did not blow this, the Illinois Democratic Party won it. ILDP and Cook Democrats are the most tightly organized and talented local political organizations in the country and they don't get enough recognition for it. Their ability to bring people home to the ol' donkey is impeccable.

Even more impressive is that you never see them. Their presence on social media, online, TV, newspaper, etc. is minimal. It's all about local organization, neighbor-to-neighbor conversation and mobilization.

God bless Illinois and bye bye Bruce.

[RINO Tom]

Rauner did not blow this, the Illinois Democratic Party won it. ILDP and Cook Democrats are the most tightly organized and talented local political organizations in the country and they don't get enough recognition for it. Their ability to bring people home to the ol' donkey is impeccable.

Even more impressive is that you never see them. Their presence on social media, online, TV, newspaper, etc. is minimal. It's all about local organization, neighbor-to-neighbor conversation and mobilization.

God bless Illinois and bye bye Bruce.

If not for your awesome username, this post would have made me vomit.  I'll be interested to see the county results/exit polls on this one.  It will be interesting to see how many demographics (not racial, of course) Quinn can lose and how few counties he can win and still pull it off, which is what I think will happen.