Cory Booker in trouble in NJ?
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  Cory Booker in trouble in NJ?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Cory Booker in trouble in NJ?  (Read 941 times)
Progressive
jro660
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« on: October 10, 2014, 10:38:11 AM »
Lots of press this week about his opponent "closing the gap"
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2014, 10:44:22 AM »
Booker will win comfortably (around 13%), but is a paper tiger.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2014, 10:45:02 AM »
Newspapers love the horserace narrative.

Only one poll this year has shown a single-digit race.

In short, the answer to your question is "no".
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Mogrovejo
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2014, 11:20:04 AM »
Nope.

His opponent was bound to "close the gap". New Jersey senate races tend to have 10 points margins, give or take a couple. Too inelastic for Republicans to win or Democrats to run up the score under normal circumstances.

Also, I agree Booker has too many vulnerabilities -he will never be in a higher office- but this race has nothing to do with that.
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Smash255
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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2014, 12:46:55 PM »
No.  The GOP's floor in NJ tends to be higher than most other Democratic states, especially for Senate races.  However, the ceiling is only slightly above the floor.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2014, 12:50:24 PM »
Quote from: Smash255 on October 10, 2014, 12:46:55 PM
No.  The GOP's floor in NJ tends to be higher than most other Democratic states, especially for Senate races.  However, the ceiling is only slightly above the floor.
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SPQR
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« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2014, 01:01:36 PM »
Has there ever been a cycle where Republicans haven't been "closing the gap" in NJ?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2014, 01:32:03 PM »
Quote from: Progressive on October 10, 2014, 10:38:11 AM
Lots of press this week about his opponent "closing the gap"

Was it Politico? Or Bill Kristol and his unskewed polls?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2014, 01:36:21 PM »
Quote from: Roma Caput Mundi on October 10, 2014, 01:01:36 PM
Has there ever been a cycle where Republicans haven't been "closing the gap" in NJ?
Uh, last cycle would probably count. Menendez outperformed Obama, and Obama outperformed his 2008 showing.
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2014, 02:09:27 PM »
No.  All polls show Booker winning by about 10, which will be close to the final result. It's not like polls are showing him only up 5 or less.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2014, 03:46:09 PM »
I don't think so. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: October 10, 2014, 04:25:20 PM »
This is typical for NJ.
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Vega
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« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2014, 10:49:14 PM »

I have to agree. It's not as blue as people think.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: October 10, 2014, 10:55:10 PM »
« Edited: October 10, 2014, 10:58:03 PM by Wulfric »
Keep in mind that Booker only won by 10 points last time, against LONEGAN of all people. Bell's a better candidate, but that's canceled out by a less republican electorate than there was in the special. So we get (basically) the same margin.

The only question is whether this will be called right at poll closing time, or we get to watch the democrats panic for 30-50 minutes.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2014, 10:56:10 PM »
He'll be fine.
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Maistre
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2014, 11:06:23 PM »
Er. No.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2014, 11:09:30 PM »
Nope. I've hardly followed this race at all because there really isn't any reason to.
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KCDem
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« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2014, 11:27:07 PM »
Prediction:

Booker 54.5%
Bell 42.5%


...applicable to all NJ races ever...
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jfern
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2014, 01:50:55 AM »
Booker is massively overrated, but he'll still win.
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