New Iowa poll at 400 MST Saturday
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Author Topic: New Iowa poll at 400 MST Saturday  (Read 5148 times)
DrScholl
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« Reply #25 on: October 11, 2014, 09:21:40 PM »

Braley is closing hard and fast.
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2014, 07:01:38 AM »

Braley leads Ernst 56-38 among early voters, who are 15% of sample.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #27 on: October 12, 2014, 08:26:18 AM »

Braley leads Ernst 56-38 among early voters, who are 15% of sample.

Dominating! Cheesy
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: October 12, 2014, 12:24:16 PM »

Braley leads Ernst 56-38 among early voters, who are 15% of sample.

Money in the bank!
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #29 on: October 12, 2014, 12:48:14 PM »

A poll showing an Ernst lead is being celebrated as a Braley victory why?
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #30 on: October 12, 2014, 12:57:36 PM »

A poll showing an Ernst lead is being celebrated as a Braley victory why?
Because its better than a lot of the previous polls of the race.  I personally was fearing that Braley was 4 or 5 points behind, so a statistical dead heat is a nice result.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #31 on: October 12, 2014, 01:07:29 PM »

A poll showing an Ernst lead is being celebrated as a Braley victory why?

The last Selzer poll had her up 6, so clearly things have improved somewhat.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #32 on: October 12, 2014, 01:33:39 PM »

A poll showing an Ernst lead is being celebrated as a Braley victory why?

In case you forgot, this represented a big improvement from the last poll. And considering that he's up big with those who have already voted, he's probably already won.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #33 on: October 12, 2014, 02:45:00 PM »

Why are we screaming about Braleymentum? There is a general range that this race has always been in, its been a toss-up for a while. If I were a D I would be upset that Ernst is leading at all still.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #34 on: October 12, 2014, 03:07:15 PM »

Why are we screaming about Braleymentum? There is a general range that this race has always been in, its been a toss-up for a while. If I were a D I would be upset that Ernst is leading at all still.
See the above three posts.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #35 on: October 12, 2014, 03:56:19 PM »

Why are we screaming about Braleymentum? There is a general range that this race has always been in, its been a toss-up for a while. If I were a D I would be upset that Ernst is leading at all still.

1 point isn't a lead.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2014, 07:43:36 PM »

Why are we screaming about Braleymentum? There is a general range that this race has always been in, its been a toss-up for a while. If I were a D I would be upset that Ernst is leading at all still.

1 point isn't a lead.

Neither is a 2 point deficit.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2014, 07:44:00 PM »

A poll showing an Ernst lead is being celebrated as a Braley victory why?

In case you forgot, this represented a big improvement from the last poll. And considering that he's up big with those who have already voted, he's probably already won.

I... need a moment.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #38 on: October 12, 2014, 08:11:04 PM »

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #39 on: October 12, 2014, 08:13:42 PM »

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

That's Bruce Bailey to you Angry
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #40 on: October 12, 2014, 08:13:49 PM »

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!
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KCDem
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« Reply #41 on: October 12, 2014, 08:39:22 PM »

Braley will win.
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Ryan in Iowa
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« Reply #42 on: October 12, 2014, 09:12:47 PM »

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Things didn't improve this much for Braley, even though I think he might be gaining in this race very slowly.

The big reason for the difference in the 2 polls is the likely voter. This is all because of Iowa having early voting.

A pollster can't kick a low interest left leaning voter out of the likely voting pool if they say the already voted. She even admits this in the write up for the recent poll.

I would bet this makes up 2-3% of Braley's gains between the 2 polls.
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chrisras
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« Reply #43 on: October 13, 2014, 12:09:26 AM »

Wow.  Braley is hanging tough.  I still think he'll lose because he is such an awful candidate. 
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #44 on: October 13, 2014, 12:37:19 AM »

This is gonna be super close. One of those great races were you can really see what a state looks like when it is almost 50-50.

Because the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections were landslides there?
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Flake
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« Reply #45 on: October 13, 2014, 12:59:29 AM »

This is gonna be super close. One of those great races were you can really see what a state looks like when it is almost 50-50.

Because the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections were landslides there?

It's nice to have a map that's not 10-15 years old.
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