IA-Selzer: Hillary leads all Pubs

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan 44/43, Paul 44/41, Jeb 46/39, Rubio 46/37, Christie 46/38, Cruz 45/35.

[IceSpear]

Kind of weak leads on the first two, but Iowa isn't exactly Hillary's forte, so I'll take it. Dominating!

[Lief 🗽]

Ryan 44/43, Paul 44/41, Jeb 46/39, Rubio 46/37, Christie 46/38, Cruz 45/35.

Subtle anti-Romney trolling? He leads 44-43.

[eric82oslo]

Kind of weak leads on the first two, but Iowa isn't exactly Hillary's forte, so I'll take it. Dominating!

That's till she makes her Pennsylvania stance/populism clear.

If there's one single thing president Obama has never been, it's a populist or being populistic. If there's one single thing that every human being in the entire United States literally crave for, it's every smallest and littlest sign of populism. And if there's one single person who's shown serious strains of modern-day populism lately, it's definitely miss Hillary Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

favorable / unfavorable %

Paul 39/33% for +6%
Romney 48/45% for +3%
Clinton 47/49% for -2%
Bush 32/38% for -6%
Biden 43/51% for -8%

[RR1997]

How is Mitt leading in Iowa? I thought that Rand was a better fit for this state than Mittens was.

This poll is probably garbage.

[Dixie Reborn]

[New_Conservative]

Good showing for Republicans, not going to be a hypocrite though. I take this with the same grain of salt as I take all of the other 2016 polls right now.

[Maxwell]

How is Mitt leading in Iowa? I thought that Rand was a better fit for this state than Mittens was.

This poll is probably garbage.

Selzer is a solid pollster (A+ from Nate Silver, in fact), so probably not.

[RR1997]

How is Mitt leading in Iowa? I thought that Rand was a better fit for this state than Mittens was.

This poll is probably garbage.

Selzer is a solid pollster (A+ from Nate Silver, in fact), so probably not.

Really? I have never even heard of this pollster.

Not that I have a problem with Mitt leading or anything.

[Holmes]

Iowa always flirts with Republicans before going back to the Democrats just in time for the election.

[New_Conservative]

How is Mitt leading in Iowa? I thought that Rand was a better fit for this state than Mittens was.

This poll is probably garbage.

Selzer is a solid pollster (A+ from Nate Silver, in fact), so probably not.

Really? I have never even heard of this pollster.

Not that I have a problem with Mitt leading or anything.

What is your opinion of the landscape since your in Iowa?

[RR1997]

How is Mitt leading in Iowa? I thought that Rand was a better fit for this state than Mittens was.

This poll is probably garbage.

Selzer is a solid pollster (A+ from Nate Silver, in fact), so probably not.

Really? I have never even heard of this pollster.

Not that I have a problem with Mitt leading or anything.

What is your opinion of the landscape since your in Iowa?

I actually live in Illinois, but the reason I have the R-IA avatar is because there were a lot of R-IL avatars when I first joined (outofbox6,Vosem,muon2,etc.), and I didn't want to be confused with them. There were no R-IA's when I first joined.

To clear up the confusion, I'll change my avatar back to R-IL.

[porky88]

Is the sample of 2014 likely voters or registered voters in Iowa?

EDIT: The data says 2016 likely voters. Can you really measure 2016 likely voters two years from the election?

[New_Conservative]

Is the sample of 2014 likely voters or registered voters in Iowa?

EDIT: The data says 2016 likely voters. Can you really measure 2016 likely voters two years from the election?

No, which is a reason why all of these polls suck.

[Devils30]

Weird how bad Hillary does but a survey USA poll had her up 7 on Romney in Florida. Definitely possible even if Hillary wins the midwest stays in place and "trends" GOP while the southeast such as VA, NC, GA, FL continue their march left. Makes perfect sense from a demographic standpoint.

[eric82oslo]

Weird how bad Hillary does but a survey USA poll had her up 7 on Romney in Florida. Definitely possible even if Hillary wins the midwest stays in place and "trends" GOP while the southeast such as VA, NC, GA, FL continue their march left. Makes perfect sense from a demographic standpoint.

I wouldn't say that Hillary does bad exactly. She's up almost 10 on most of her competitors. I'd rather say it's shocking how well Paul Ryan and Rand Paul actually does in this poll. Which is interesting, since Rand Paul does horribly in almost every other state, and since Paul Ryan trails by a mile in Wisconsin, his home state, even if he trails by less there than Walker and every other GOP opponent with him. Iowa has been surprisingly close in many 2016 polls recently. I'm not surprised that Rand Paul does well there though, so did his father to some degree. I'm more shocked at how appallingly bad Rand Paul so far does in most other states. Either it's due to horrific name recognition or most US voters are simply not ready for his brand of politics yet. I mean, Rand Paul even barely leads Hillary in his home state of Kentucky! Which tells me that all of this is rather a result of Hillary's intense popularity rather than a hate for something Rand Paul, or any other GOPer for that matter, stands for.

[eric82oslo]

How is Mitt leading in Iowa? I thought that Rand was a better fit for this state than Mittens was.

This poll is probably garbage.

Selzer is a solid pollster (A+ from Nate Silver, in fact), so probably not.

Really? I have never even heard of this pollster.

Not that I have a problem with Mitt leading or anything.

Selzer is the only pollster to be trusted in Iowa primaries, and has been so for years if not decades. It's one of the most famous pollsters out there.

[eric82oslo]

Thanks. This disproves RogueBeaver's numbers above. For one, Romney is actually included here, just like he is in the real poll: http://archive.desmoinesregister.com/assets/jpg/oct11poll2.jpg

Secondly, Christie and Rubio show up with different margins here.

[Knives]

2014 electorate btw.

[IceSpear]

2014 electorate btw.

Nah, it says 2016 likely voters. Though it's pretty hard to judge that two years out. RVs are much better at this point.