High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH
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  High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH
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Author Topic: High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH  (Read 4058 times)
DrScholl
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« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2014, 12:07:46 PM »

Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.

It's not unskewing like you and your people did in 2012. The demographic samples actually matter, that's why Gallup flubbed up so badly last cycle.

Try again.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2014, 12:08:51 PM »

A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.

He's not going to win 90% of whites. You have to realize that whites in Colorado don't vote the same as they do in the south.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #27 on: October 13, 2014, 12:10:10 PM »

A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.

He's not going to win 90% of whites. You have to realize that whites in Colorado don't vote the same as they do in the south.

Holy mathematical strawman!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #28 on: October 13, 2014, 12:10:24 PM »

Bennett only lost whites by 3% in 2010. I don't know why Gardner would do "much better" than a 6% margin.
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Devils30
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« Reply #29 on: October 13, 2014, 12:11:19 PM »

Given CO demographics, a figure of around 79% white is probably realistic here. I don't see why that should even be disputed.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #30 on: October 13, 2014, 12:11:49 PM »

A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.

He's not going to win 90% of whites. You have to realize that whites in Colorado don't vote the same as they do in the south.

Holy mathematical strawman!

Judging from who I was responding to, I figured that was what you believed.
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Devils30
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« Reply #31 on: October 13, 2014, 12:14:47 PM »

If Udall loses the white vote by single digits he is winning this thing without a doubt. CO whites went 54-44 for Romney and Obama won it by over 5.5. The fact that the 18-39 group is Gardner's best raises questions about the sample too. Missing younger voters who use cell phones only is probably a big reason some Dems have outperformed polls recently.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #32 on: October 13, 2014, 12:19:11 PM »

Given CO demographics, a figure of around 79% white is probably realistic here. I don't see why that should even be disputed.


Ah, if you are referring to polls like this Quinnipiac poll that are 80% white, well, have at it.
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SPC
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« Reply #33 on: October 13, 2014, 12:20:46 PM »

Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.

It's not unskewing like you and your people did in 2012. The demographic samples actually matter, that's why Gallup flubbed up so badly last cycle.

Try again.

I did not unskew in 2012. I admit to doing so in 2010, and having seen the results of that election, learned my lesson not to do so in 2012 or this election.

As others have mentioned before, SurveyUSA has had a tendency to give accurate top-line results despite weird crosstabs. How exactly is unskewing based on racial breakdowns that you happen to disagree with somehow better than unskewing based on partisan breakdowns that you happen to disagree with?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #34 on: October 13, 2014, 12:23:24 PM »

Updated the original post with the actual numbers.

Definitely not good numbers for the Dems, especially because SUSA did CO and NH.
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Devils30
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« Reply #35 on: October 13, 2014, 12:26:53 PM »

Given CO demographics, a figure of around 79% white is probably realistic here. I don't see why that should even be disputed.


Ah, if you are referring to polls like this Quinnipiac poll that are 80% white, well, have at it.

Dems have a history of outperforming polls in this state. Wouldn't shock me one bit if Gardner leads everything by a few points like Buck did and then loses on election night. But you can take it to the bank that the electorate will not be 84% white.
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backtored
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« Reply #36 on: October 13, 2014, 12:27:11 PM »

If Udall loses the white vote by single digits he is winning this thing without a doubt. CO whites went 54-44 for Romney and Obama won it by over 5.5. The fact that the 18-39 group is Gardner's best raises questions about the sample too. Missing younger voters who use cell phones only is probably a big reason some Dems have outperformed polls recently.

Or maybe Gardner is actually winning.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #37 on: October 13, 2014, 12:29:50 PM »

Given CO demographics, a figure of around 79% white is probably realistic here. I don't see why that should even be disputed.


Ah, if you are referring to polls like this Quinnipiac poll that are 80% white, well, have at it.

Dems have a history of outperforming polls in this state. Wouldn't shock me one bit if Gardner leads everything by a few points like Buck did and then loses on election night. But you can take it to the bank that the electorate will not be 84% white.

Of course, to say that, you'd simply have to ignore situations where it wasn't true, such as Udall's first victory in 2008. The final RCP polling average was Udall +12 and he won by 10.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #38 on: October 13, 2014, 12:30:20 PM »

Bennett only lost whites by 3% in 2010. I don't know why Gardner would do "much better" than a 6% margin.

CNN exit polls actually had Buck up 7

Of course, there are 2 reasons. Mr. Udall and Barry's standing with Colorado whites has deteriorated since that time, and the legislature of Colorado went on a rampage.
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SPC
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« Reply #39 on: October 13, 2014, 12:31:36 PM »

Dems have a history of outperforming polls in this state.

This again?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #40 on: October 13, 2014, 12:34:18 PM »

The panic is starting to settle in...
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Devils30
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« Reply #41 on: October 13, 2014, 12:38:11 PM »

Maybe the final results will be accurate but even CNN, Survey USA and NBC Marist were off by a few points in Colorado in 2012. Weighting by party ID is problematic like Ramussen does it. However, it's weird how all these pre-election polls have Rs in the plurality but Ds had a +5 edge in both 2010 and 2012. These polls might be missing Hispanic and young voters. Curious if any of these pollsters have adjusted their methodology after missing in this state.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #42 on: October 13, 2014, 12:38:40 PM »

Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.

It's not unskewing like you and your people did in 2012. The demographic samples actually matter, that's why Gallup flubbed up so badly last cycle.

Try again.

I did not unskew in 2012. I admit to doing so in 2010, and having seen the results of that election, learned my lesson not to do so in 2012 or this election.

As others have mentioned before, SurveyUSA has had a tendency to give accurate top-line results despite weird crosstabs. How exactly is unskewing based on racial breakdowns that you happen to disagree with somehow better than unskewing based on partisan breakdowns that you happen to disagree with?

It's not unskewing, it's based on how previous polls have worked. PPP was able to get accurate results in 2012, because they used a demographic sample that included more minorities, when other pollsters expected those groups not to show up. Party ID is fluid, unlike demographics. This has been discussed before.
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Devils30
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« Reply #43 on: October 13, 2014, 12:39:37 PM »


You have a history that has proven yourself to be a true moron. I'm sure you're getting ready for Corbett's second term!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #44 on: October 13, 2014, 12:43:55 PM »


You have a history that has proven yourself to be a true moron. I'm sure you're getting ready for Corbett's second term!

Further proof that the rodents are scattering in fear...

By the way, find where I said in the past two years that Corbett is set to win re-election and I'll leave the Forum for good.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #45 on: October 13, 2014, 12:47:00 PM »

Udall needs a game changer and quick. Things keep getting better and better for Gardner and worse for Udall.

SUSA only showing Shaheen up by 2 is shocking to me, but I still suspect that Shaheen pulls out of this just fine. If Scott Brown actually managed to win in New Hampshire, I think I should be struck by lightening.

It was recently discovered that Udall has a history of littering.

Maybe that's why Udall is the last person Obama wants to see on his front lawn Tongue
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Free Bird
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« Reply #46 on: October 13, 2014, 12:49:29 PM »

Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #47 on: October 13, 2014, 12:50:24 PM »

To be honest, Udall has run a pretty horrible campaign. It's one thing to hammer Gardner for his extremist positions on personhood and women's health, it's quite another to make it basically the foundation of your entire campaign. If he loses, he only has himself to blame.

The NC and NH polls seem like outliers,  but we'll see.
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Devils30
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« Reply #48 on: October 13, 2014, 12:50:56 PM »

A lot of these polls have shown Hispanics going Democratic like 55-40 and then on election day the figure is closer to 70-30.
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Devils30
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« Reply #49 on: October 13, 2014, 12:51:59 PM »

NC just has too many undecideds, they should have pushed leaners more. NH is a close race but its like Ohio in 2012 where one side leads every poll. Not a huge fan of YouGov because they survey the same people again but their 2012 and latest results make more sense with the age breakdown.
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