High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH

[krazen1211]

Great polls! All aboard train Tillis!

[krazen1211]

Udall needs a game changer and quick. Things keep getting better and better for Gardner and worse for Udall.

SUSA only showing Shaheen up by 2 is shocking to me, but I still suspect that Shaheen pulls out of this just fine. If Scott Brown actually managed to win in New Hampshire, I think I should be struck by lightening.

It was recently discovered that Udall has a history of littering.

[krazen1211]

A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.

[krazen1211]

A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.

He's not going to win 90% of whites. You have to realize that whites in Colorado don't vote the same as they do in the south.

Holy mathematical strawman!

[krazen1211]

Given CO demographics, a figure of around 79% white is probably realistic here. I don't see why that should even be disputed.

Ah, if you are referring to polls like this Quinnipiac poll that are 80% white, well, have at it.

[krazen1211]

Given CO demographics, a figure of around 79% white is probably realistic here. I don't see why that should even be disputed.

Ah, if you are referring to polls like this Quinnipiac poll that are 80% white, well, have at it.

Dems have a history of outperforming polls in this state. Wouldn't shock me one bit if Gardner leads everything by a few points like Buck did and then loses on election night. But you can take it to the bank that the electorate will not be 84% white.

Of course, to say that, you'd simply have to ignore situations where it wasn't true, such as Udall's first victory in 2008. The final RCP polling average was Udall +12 and he won by 10.

[krazen1211]

Bennett only lost whites by 3% in 2010. I don't know why Gardner would do "much better" than a 6% margin.

CNN exit polls actually had Buck up 7

Of course, there are 2 reasons. Mr. Udall and Barry's standing with Colorado whites has deteriorated since that time, and the legislature of Colorado went on a rampage.