The fact that the GOP isn't clearly leading the Dems in the generic ballot kind of tells the story.
There is no wave. Merely the case of a typical mid-term with some localized idiosyncratic behaviour.
I tend to agree with this. I don't think there's a republican wave either. There are some very red states that for one reason or another have a democratic senator and that wasn't going to last forever. The senate is a republican gerrymander and it's a miracle the democrats have been to hold it for 3 terms IMO. Other than that I don't see much changing. I wouldn't be surprised actually if the democrats won some seats in the House.