Poll: Impact of the incoming Tea Party Congress on Hillary Clinton's campaign

[Brittain33]

"week" should be "weak," but there's no way to edit.

It looks likely that Tea Party favorites like Joni Ernst and Tom Cotton will join Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and the non-Tea Party caucus majority in a new GOP majority in 2015 alongside a GOP House. Assuming Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, how does this shake up the 2016 race?

[Slander and/or Libel]

I fully expect a government shutdown after the 2014 elections. The question, I suppose, is whether the electorate has enough of a memory, or whether Democrats have the ability to keep such a thing on voters' minds, that it'll even be remembered by the time the 2016 election happens.

[Mister Mets]

Someone described 2014 as the year of the Goldilocks Republicans. Tea Party challengers (See Kansas, Kentucky and Mississippi) lost, but the people who won were appealing to both the tea party and the establishment Republicans. They're in agreement on Tom Cotton, Ben Sasse, Cory Gardner and Joni Ernst, all of whom are conservative but unlikely to sabotage the leadership. And there are a few other likely and plausible Senators who aren't seriously associated with the tea party (Dan Sullivan of Alaska, Thom Tills of North Carolina, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, James Lankford of Oklahoma, Steve Daines of Montana, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana.)

As for House elections, gains are generally a good thing for Boehner and co. It makes it easier to pass things on a party-line vote.

With the publicity Rand and Cruz got for their filibusters, there are more incentives for new Senators to grandstand, but it doesn't seem the new guys will be as problematic.

[eric82oslo]

I thought it was Mike Rounds of South Dakota?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

We have to wait until after election day to discuss this scenario, given that literally anything is possible this cycle. Still, I think a GOP controlled Congress would help Hillary because then the entire legislative branch will refuse to legislate for two years.

[Mister Mets]

I thought it was Mike Rounds of South Dakota?

Yeah. Typo.

We have to wait until after election day to discuss this scenario, given that literally anything is possible this cycle. Still, I think a GOP controlled Congress would help Hillary because then the entire legislative branch will refuse to legislate for two years.

That's about a Republican controlled Congress rather than one where the tea party has more of a voice.

Generally, every Republican elected is good for the leadership because it means they don't need everyone's vote, which avoids a few embarrassments.

Republicans could do more to pass things through the House and Senate, forcing Democrats to be the ones vetoing and filibustering popular items.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Republican Congress=Tea Party Congress???

[Slander and/or Libel]

Republican Congress=Tea Party Congress??

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hurt (other): The decrease in the number of uninsured Americans and the country's gradual economic recovery will be attributed to the fact that the Republicans gained full control of Congress in 2014

[Brittain33]

Republican Congress=Tea Party Congress???

Ted Cruz is going to have a larger soapbox.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The last thing we need is another President Clinton with a GOP Congress.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich worked together just fine (the 1995 shutdown was the exception, not the rule) . Hopefully Hillary and Boehner can do the same.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich worked together just fine (the 1995 shutdown was the exception, not the rule) . Hopefully Hillary and Boehner can do the same.

That's a very bad thing. Do we need another Glass Steagal to lead to the next Great Recession? Do we need another telecom deregulation? Do we need another gutting of the safety net? Do we another Mickey Mouse copyright extension? Do we need another DMCA (PIPA)?  There was nothing but right-wing legislation.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich worked together just fine (the 1995 shutdown was the exception, not the rule) . Hopefully Hillary and Boehner can do the same.

That's a very bad thing. Do we need another Glass Steagal to lead to the next Great Recession? Do we need another telecom deregulation? Do we need another gutting of the safety net? Do we another Mickey Mouse copyright extension? Do we need another DMCA (PIPA)?  There was nothing but right-wing legislation.

Many of the things Clinton and Gingrich agreed on won broad, bipartisan support:

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[IceSpear]

The last thing we need is another President Clinton with a GOP Congress.

This says Clinton's campaign, not presidency. Assuming the GOP wins the majority this year, Democrats have a very good chance of gaining it back in 2016, and a small chance of gaining back the House as well.

As for the question, this is the silver lining for me if the GOP takes the Senate. At the moment the public hates Congress, but Congress is split between the Democrats and Republicans, so all the blame can't go to one party. But if Republicans completely control it, all the blame for government dysfunction can go on them. I also fully expect the GOP to overreach and try something stupid. Even if not a full blown government shutdown, something similar. So Hillary gets to run against the broken "do nothing" and/or "do awful things" Congress.

[Eraserhead]

The last thing we need is another President Clinton with a GOP Congress.

I can hear the sound of everything being cut already!

[Bojack Horseman]

I think it's going to help her campaign the same way the utter disaster of 1994 helped Bill Clinton's re-election, and the same way the 2010 fiasco won Obama's re-election. I think if the Republicans retake the Senate in 2014, it guarantees Democrats will win it back in 2016, and increases the likelihood of a Democratic Presidential victory as well.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Thank god Hillary is going to run and probably win in 2016. She is the only thing standing between a full blown Randian Tea Party radical take over of America.

[IceSpear]

Thank god Hillary is going to run and probably win in 2016. She is the only thing standing between a full blown Randian Tea Party radical take over of America.

Don't be silly. The latter will be a good thing because it would be the catalyst for viva la revolucion. Nader 2016!

But seriously, who voted for "Hurt; Republicans will demonstrate they are ready to govern responsibly"

[anvi]

It will have a negative impact on a Clinton campaign, in the sense that TEA Party engagement will increase anti-Dem turnout.  But I don't see that changing much except around the margins.  Right now, it just seems to me that Hillary's electoral strengths are so powerful that her most formidable enemy is herself.  She might pick the wrong allies, run a bad campaign, or the opposition might successfully portray her in too negative a light to be elected.  I don't think those possibilities are more likely than not, but if one or more comes to pass, it won't be because of the TEA Party.