Idaho-PPP: Hillary down by double digits

[eric82oslo]

Unsurprisingly, Madam Clinton is down on all 5 GOPers tested in the state of Idaho by a margin of between 11% and 19%. Christie is not very popular up there, while Rand Paul does pretty decently:

Vs Chris Christie: 33-44 (R +11%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 34-50 (R +16%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 33-50 (R +17%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 34-52 (R +18%)
Vs Rand Paul: 33-52 (R +19%)

More here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/idaho-governors-race-close-but-otter-has-room-to-grow.html
Full results: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_ID_1014925.pdf

[Rockefeller GOP]

Idaho hasn't gone Democrat since 1964 (when every state did pretty much) and before that 1948.  Not only that, it's gotten much more conservative since 1968 (when its current streak started).  Obviously never say never (who could have seen the '28-'32 shift coming, for example), but I can't see a Democrat carrying it anytime soon.

[IceSpear]

The GOP won Idaho by 25 points in 2008 and 32 points in 2012, so these are pretty bad results for them, especially considering it's >2014 likely voters and Hillary is supposed to be weaker in the West than Obama.

[KCDem]

RIP 2016 GOP prospects

[TDAS04]

I would be stunned if she didn't lose Idaho by more than 20 points. 

[BaconBacon96]

Interesting polling since Hillary is supposed to be less popular in the Mountain West.

[dmmidmi]

Hildog is not going to win Idaho.

[Maxwell]

Interesting polling since Hillary is supposed to be less popular in the Mountain West.

Most undecideds probably lean Republican anywho.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Idaho won't go Democratic until marriage equality is legalized everywhere and they get it through their heads that Roe v. Wade isn't going to be overturned anytime soon; in short, it'll be a while.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Why was this even polled...

[eric82oslo]

Why was this even polled...

Because I asked them to poll the 2016 race there while they were onto the other races this year.

[pbrower2a]

Idaho hasn't gone Democrat since 1964 (when every state did pretty much) and before that 1948.  Not only that, it's gotten much more conservative since 1968 (when its current streak started).  Obviously never say never (who could have seen the '28-'32 shift coming, for example), but I can't see a Democrat carrying it anytime soon.

Idaho becomes a state vulnerable to the Democrats in

(1) a 45-state blowout,
(2) it gets a large Hispanic minority, or
(3) the LDS hierarchy goes D (the situation before 1952).

[Vega]

it gets a large Hispanic minority

How likely is this?

[eric82oslo]

it gets a large Hispanic minority

How likely is this?

It's a Western state and reasonably urban, come on, it's extremely likely over the span of decades.

[Flake]

it gets a large Hispanic minority

How likely is this?

It's a Western state and reasonably urban, come on, it's extremely likely over the span of decades.

Idaho isn't even close to "reasonably urban". It's one of the most rural states in the country. Other than Boise, what does the state have in terms of cities?

[DS0816]

Interesting polling since Hillary is supposed to be less popular in the Mountain West.

The Democrats have been leaving too many states to the Republicans.

Montana is winnable in a year where a Democrat is a pickup winner and/or puts up a strong margin that includes contesting the state. (Around 12,000 more votes switched would have delivered a Democratic pickup of the state to Barack Obama in Election 2008.)

Idaho is one of the last states in line. A Democrat would have to win north of 40 states to feasibly win in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Oklahoma. (Ditto Alabama and Mississippi.)

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Have you guys heard of that Libertarian movement starting out in the 80's that wanted to colonize NH ?

We could copy that and colonize a small western state like Idaho or Wyoming with Gays and Lesbians or Latte Liberals.