Jerry Brown's Margin of Victory

[KCDem]

I think he is narrowly held under 60%, maybe 59-41 or so.

[Bojack Horseman]

Probably higher, IMO.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If Feinstein and Obama could break 60% without doing anything in 2012, Brown can definitely break 60% without breaking a sweat because of high popularity and crossover support.

[IceSpear]

If Feinstein and Obama could break 60% without doing anything in 2012, Brown can definitely break 60% without breaking a sweat because of high popularity and crossover support.

On the flip side, 2014 will have lower turnout and will be a more Republican friendly year in general than 2012 was. Plus, unlike Emken and Romney, Kashkari actually has somewhat of a campaign in the state.

Still, I think Brown barely cracks 60.

[Flake]

I think he'll be just short of 60, Kashkari (from what I've heard) has ran a great campaign so far, and he'll definitely benefit with a dropoff of Presidential year voters, in a state where Democrats don't need to put in funds  to win the majority of statewide races. The only reason Obama got 60% was that he excited liberals, got hispanics/blacks to get out and vote, and the Romney campaign put virtually nothing into California, if anything at all.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If Feinstein and Obama could break 60% without doing anything in 2012, Brown can definitely break 60% without breaking a sweat because of high popularity and crossover support.

On the flip side, 2014 will have lower turnout and will be a more Republican friendly year in general than 2012 was. Plus, unlike Emken and Romney, Kashkari actually has somewhat of a campaign in the state.

Still, I think Brown barely cracks 60.

Feinstein and Obama didn't nearly have as much crossover support as Brown [is expected] to have, so that should offset the low turnout.

[President Johnson]

If Feinstein and Obama could break 60% without doing anything in 2012, Brown can definitely break 60% without breaking a sweat because of high popularity and crossover support.

On the flip side, 2014 will have lower turnout and will be a more Republican friendly year in general than 2012 was. Plus, unlike Emken and Romney, Kashkari actually has somewhat of a campaign in the state.

Still, I think Brown barely cracks 60.

That means Kashkari receives at least 40%, the same margin Meg Whitman received in 2010. I consider this to be unlikely this year. Brown will win with approx. 63%.

[smoltchanov]

Exactly about 60-40. Difficult to say - slightly more or less...

[Eraserhead]

Over 9000

[eric82oslo]

63-37 or 64-36 would be my best guess right now.

[TDAS04]

I think he has a good chance.  Maybe 61-39.

[Maxwell]

59-41. Kashkari's best possible result is 57-43.

[henster]

Brown has not run an aggressive campaign, he hasn't run a single ad so his result could be underwhelming in a midterm year. Maybe 58-42 or 59-41.

[Mr. Smith]

Oh yes, he should pass it even without any campaigning.

He has probably the best crossover support a Democrat in any position right now could possibly have. Old voters remember him well for his last two terms back in the 70's

Young voters like his very liberal social policies.

And he's pretty much seen as a reasoned moderate everywhere else.

He's seen as turning this state around after pretty much every Governor after him slowly burned it into the ground (mostly looking at Wilson and Schwarzenneggar, I dunno much about the guy that beat Tom Bradley beyond his Nixonian "tough on crime" stances).

And Kashkari despite his campaigning is still very much unknown, and has pretty much no record to go by.

This could be even more lopsided than the '06 gubernatorial.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Brown has not run an aggressive campaign, he hasn't run a single ad so his result could be underwhelming in a midterm year. Maybe 58-42 or 59-41.

Brown will probably put more effort into campaigning for Props. 1 and 2 than his own re-election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just barely, something like 60% to 61%. Much like the 2012 Pres result.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If only Kashkari had the money to run this ad statewide.

[IceSpear]

If only Kashkari had the money to run this ad statewide.

lol, what the hell?

[njwes]

I imagine he will break 60%, given his popularity and crossover support and the fact that generally he seems to have been a genuinely good governor.

Still, I like Kashkari a lot, and I do hope he uses his increased exposure in this election to launch some future campaign.

[Sbane]

While I like Kashkari, realistically he will have his ass handed to him by Brown. Brown wins about 62-64% of the vote.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He'll just barely hit 60%.

Kashkari's not bad, he just chose the wrong race. He should try at the senate once Feinstein or Boxer retires, or if he doesn't want that, he can probably snag the 26th, 31st, or 36th house seat instead.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Kashkari's not bad, he just chose the wrong race.

You mean every statewide race since Schwarzenegger put the final nail in the coffin for Republicans?

He should just wait for Rohrabacher to retire in 48 and run there (isn't he from Laguna?), then sit around in the House and wait for the rest of his party to catch up to him, screaming "I TOLD YA SO" at the finish line.

[Liberalrocks]

If Feinstein and Obama could break 60% without doing anything in 2012, Brown can definitely break 60% without breaking a sweat because of high popularity and crossover support.

On the flip side, 2014 will have lower turnout and will be a more Republican friendly year in general than 2012 was. Plus, unlike Emken and Romney, Kashkari actually has somewhat of a campaign in the state.

Still, I think Brown barely cracks 60.

Feinstein and Obama didn't nearly have as much crossover support as Brown [is expected] to have, so that should offset the low turnout.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

My experience is that most people here don't even think anyone is running against Jerry Brown.