IA-Selzer: D: Clinton 53% Warren 10%; R: Romney 17% Carson 11% Paul 10% Huck 9%

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg/Des Moines Register/Selzer GOP Iowa caucus poll:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-10-14/bloombergdes-moines-register-iowa-poll-without-romney-a-wideopen-2016-field-in-republican-caucuses

http://images.businessweek.com/bloomberg/pdfs/2104-qfi-Rep-Iowa-caucus-poll-tabulated-questionnaire.pdf

[Mr. Morden]

favorability / unfavorability among Republicans:

Ryan 75/14% for +61%
Perry 64/23% for +41%
Walker 49/10% for +39%
Rubio 54/16% for +38%
Romney 65/30% for +35%
Paul 59/24% for +35%
Cruz 52/18% for +34%
Carson 41/8% for +33%
Huckabee 59/30% for +29%
Jindal 41/14% for +27%
Santorum 52/30% for +22%
Bush 50/28% for +22%
Kasich 17/7% for +10%
Pence 10/10% for +/-0
Portman 9/10% for -1%
Christie 39/45% for -6%

Iowa Republicans on the issues:

[Lief 🗽]

Romney will be the nominee.

[IceSpear]

17% is a horrible result for Romney considering his universal name recognition. His favorability is pretty middling as well. Carson would probably pull a Santorum and beat him.

[eric82oslo]

Carsonmentum! Maybe PPP should start including Romney, Carson and Ryan soon in their match ups. Gravis usually includes at least one of them, and I don't see why PPP should be any worse.

[King]

Am I reading this right? Marijuana decriminalization in some form is +17 among Iowa Republicans?

[Mr. Morden]

Am I reading this right? Marijuana decriminalization in some form is +17 among Iowa Republicans?

That's what it says, yes.  Here's the exact question wording:

"I’m going to mention some stands on specific issues a candidate might take. For each, please tell me if you favor or oppose the position. (Rotate list.)"

And then the marijuana part reads:

"Supports keeping possession of marijuana a crime in all cases"

And it's:
favor 37%
oppose 54%

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, note that this is the first statewide primary poll (not just Iowa, but anywhere) to include Carson in more than 5 months.  So for all we know, he could be doing well in other states too.  We just don't know, because he never gets included as an option in polls.

The last nationwide poll to include him was a St. Leo University poll taken in late May / early June, which had Carson at 6% nationwide.  That was good enough to put him in a tie for 4th place, because of the large number of candidates included.

[Eraserhead]

Carsonmania! We're #2!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Am I reading this right? Marijuana decriminalization in some form is +17 among Iowa Republicans?

The shift in opinions on marijuana have made gay marriage views seem completely set in stone by comparison.

[Maxwell]

#carsonsurge
#weregonnawin

[IceSpear]

Am I reading this right? Marijuana decriminalization in some form is +17 among Iowa Republicans?

Well medical marijuana routinely polls around 80% support.

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the Democratic results for the same poll:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2014/10/14/iowa-poll-democrats-favor-hillary-clinton/17266075/

http://archive.desmoinesregister.com/assets/pdf/IowaPollDems.pdf

Clinton 53%
Warren 10%
Biden 9%
Kerry 7%
Sanders 3%
Cuomo 1%
Webb 1%
Schweitzer 1%
O'Malley 0%

Favorability among Dems:

Clinton 76/19% for +57%
Warren 44/11% for +33%
Kerry 60/31% for +29%
Biden 60/34% for +26%
Sanders 29/13% for +16%
Webb 16/12% for +4%
O'Malley 13/9% for +4%
Schweitzer 9/12% for -3%
Cuomo 24/34% for -10%

[Mr. Morden]

Asked of Democrats--"Which of the following do you see as the most important issue for the next president to address?"

unemployment and jobs 21%
health care 18%
climate change 12%
federal deficit 9%
terrorism 9%
foreign policy 9%
immigration 8%
taxes 4%

Asked of Republicans--"Which of the following do you see as the most important issue for the next president to address?"

federal deficit 23%
terrorism 16%
foreign policy 12%
immigration 11%
health care 11%
unemployment and jobs 11%
taxes 9%
climate change 0%

[Mr. Morden]

CNN's poll from last month also had Clinton at 53%:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198596.0

Iowa and South Carolina are the only states where we have polls **from this year** with Clinton below 55%.

[morgieb]

Surprisingly low numbers from Clinton. Probably won't be enough to lose, but if the types that don't want Hillary can rally around a candidate....

Also why the f**k was Kerry polled?

[IceSpear]

>Including Kerry. Seriously, WTF?

LOL at Hillary having the highest favorability and Cuomo having the lowest despite the "true progressives" insisting they're one in the same.

Also, being at "only" 53% isn't a problem for Hillary. These were the last few Iowa wins and the percentage they got:

2012 - Santorum (25%)
2008 - Huckabee (34%)
2008 - Obama (38%)
2004 - Kerry (38%)
2000 - Bush (41%)
2000 - Gore (63%)

[IceSpear]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

#2008redux
#notready4hillary

She was inevitable in 2008 too!!1111111!!!!

[New_Conservative]

Not surprised about the Tea Party success in Iowa.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Romney runs, he'll get 25% or so in Iowa, just like 2008 and 2012. The question is if the other 75% can be united enough to defeat him. In 2008, the answer was yes. In 2012, the answer was yes...barely. If he runs, we'll get 2016's answer.