Huckabee threatens to leave GOP

[eric82oslo]

Yes, abortion isn't going anywhere.  Gay marriage and birth control will need to go if they want to win a presidential election anytime soon.  What would a Huckabee independent run look like in 2016?

Probably something like this?

Clinton/Warner 42.5%
Paul/Walker 36.5%
Huckabee/Palin 21.0%

Really? You think a HUCKABEE/PALIN ticket would attract a non negligible amount of Democratic support? Almost all of his vote share would be coming from otherwise Republican voters.

It looks to me like Huckabee IS getting his vote share from Republican voters on that map. Huckabee isn't shown winning a single Obama state, Clinton is shown winning seven Romney states (clearly due to a split in the GOP vote, at least partially); and the only states Huckabee is shown winning are staunchly Republican states.

I was referring to the popular vote totals.

Good point.  She should be much closer to 50%.  Consider this what would happen if Obama craters like Bush in 2008 and Huckabee runs 3rd party.

I don't think Huckabee wins a state outside of Arkansas if would ever run as a Independent. Republican voters would hopefully realize they are increasing the odds of Hilary winning by doing this.

In general I agree with you Branden, but there's at least a theoretical possibility that he could also win Wyoming. And also Oklahoma, if he took the vast majority of non-Clinton votes there. I guess there's even a slim chance that he could win Alabama.

Wyoming will almost certainly be Hillary's worst state I think.

[politicus]

Wyoming isn't particularly religious, like the rest of the West it would not be a good Huckabee state.

[Suburbia]

If Huckabee left the GOP, would Hagee, Tony Perkins, and all the other evangelicals leave too? Huckabee is an gifted orator, and if he did create a third party, it could gain traction, but we'll see if he can win the GOP presidential nomination if he runs in 2016.

[Rockefeller GOP]

If Huckabee left the GOP, would Hagee, Tony Perkins, and all the other evangelicals leave too? Huckabee is an gifted orator, and if he did create a third party, it could gain traction, but we'll see if he can win the GOP presidential nomination if he runs in 2016.

Spoiler: he cannot.

[Bull Moose Base]

If Huckabee left the GOP, would Hagee, Tony Perkins, and all the other evangelicals leave too? Huckabee is an gifted orator, and if he did create a third party, it could gain traction, but we'll see if he can win the GOP presidential nomination if he runs in 2016.

Spoiler: he cannot.

Neither can a candidate who supports marriage equality. Because of Huckabee. (And people like him.)

[Rockefeller GOP]

If Huckabee left the GOP, would Hagee, Tony Perkins, and all the other evangelicals leave too? Huckabee is an gifted orator, and if he did create a third party, it could gain traction, but we'll see if he can win the GOP presidential nomination if he runs in 2016.

Spoiler: he cannot.

Neither can a candidate who supports marriage equality. Because of Huckabee. (And people like him.)

My only point was, yes, the Huck crowd drags the nominee to the right on social issues, but they never actually stand a chance of winning.  The GOP will elect a respectable candidate (by non-biased standards) like Bush or Christie or Walker or Paul in 2016.  Sure, Democrats will paint whomever the nominee is as a crazy extremist come general election time, but the ACTUALLY fringe candidates (Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee, etc.) never get the nomination.