2004/2008/2012 elections with no Iraq War

[Mr. Morden]

Bush ramps up pressure on Iraq to get the weapons inspectors back in, and then when they're back in, does not end up going to war.  There is no US-led invasion of Iraq, and the status quo (with occasional 1998-like crisis moments, and enforcement of the no-fly zones) continues at least throughout the rest of Bush's presidency.

Who is nominated by each party in 2004, 2008, and 2012, and who wins each election?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

2004: Bush beats Kerry by 4 points
2008: Hillary beats McCain by 3 points

[NHI]

'04: Bush v. Edwards

√ Bush: 300 (51.6%)
Edwards: 238 (47.0%)

'08: Clinton v. Giuliani

√ Clinton: 289 (50.5%)
Giuliani: 249 (48.3%)

'12: Clinton v. Huckabee

√ Clinton: 310 (51.6%)
Huckabee: 228 (46.9%)

[IceSpear]

I don't think it would change 2004 too much. The public was still pretty split 50/50 on the war back then. Perhaps Bush would win by a slightly larger margin due to having one less issue to enthuse the Democratic base, but it wouldn't have any major changes.

And yeah, as others have stated, Hillary likely wins big in 2008. 2012 is really impossible to say.

[Mr. Morden]

The big change would probably come in 2006.  Without Iraq dragging Bush's numbers down, the Dems would not perform as well as they did IRL in those midterms.

On the international front, it's also unclear how long the status quo in Iraq can prevail.  Once you get to 2011 and the Arab Spring, Iraq could fall into Syria-like civil war, but in this case the central government is actually Sunni-led, so it scrambles the alliances that we see IRL.  And if the US and UK are still enforcing the no-fly zones and the economic sanctions, then they would presumably get drawn into the conflict in some capacity.

[badgate]

2004: Millennium Redux

Vermont Governor Howard Dean / Virginia Governor Mark Warner - 268, 49.1%
President George W. Bush / Vice President Dick Cheney - 270, 48.9%

2008: It's The Economy, Stupid
(No Edwards Affair occurs, therefore no scandal)

New York Senator Hillary Clinton / North Carolina Senator John Edwards - 361
Arizona Senator John McCain / Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman - 177

2012: This Is All Just A Big Misunderstanding

President Hillary Clinton / Vice President John Edwards - 251
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels / Frmr. Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum - 287

[Agonized-Statism]

2004

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY) ✓
Senator John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator John Edwards (D-NC)

2008

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) ✓

2012

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Vice President Evan Bayh (D-IN) ✓
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI)

2016

Secretary of Labor Barack Obama (D-IL) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) ✓
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Senator John Cornyn (R-TX)

2020

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) / Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) ✓

The biggest impact of this on American politics is the 2006 elections and the 2008 primaries. The public only turns against the War in Afghanistan during the Great Recession, so the progressive and populist movements take a little longer to develop. Preventing Iraq doesn't save the Bush era GOP- the religious right had no appeal with young people and the Great Recession would turn the country inward and away from the neocons' agenda. Iraq is probably taken out by a CIA color revolution in the late 2000s instead, or the Arab Spring at the latest.