Will the CO GOP finally break the hex this year (Senate/Gov?)

[sg0508]

The CO GOP has lost every big statewide race (Pres/Senate/Gov) since George Bush won the state by 4.6 points in 2004.  Included in the losing streak was the embarrassing 2010 midterms. 

The GOP candidates have closed hard on both Udall and Hickenlooper in the past month.  Will one or both finally get over the top and end the GOP's losing streak at the top of the ticket?

I still say "no" on both.  Until they prove they can do it, I'll assume the party will fall flat on its face again.

[KCDem]

Failure is what the Colorado GOP is good at so I'm going to expect that from them

[Dixie Reborn]

I believe that the Colorado GOP will win either CO-Sen or CO-Gov but most likely not both.

[JRP1994]

My current prediction: Hickenlooper will win, and Udall will lose.

[GaussLaw]

I believe that the Colorado GOP will win either CO-Sen or CO-Gov but most likely not both.

I disagree.  I think that it's 50/50 now.  Either both lose or both win.

[RogueBeaver]

Senate maybe, guv no.

[Lief 🗽]

Senate maybe, guv no.

Yup.

The thing with Gardner is, he is far and away the best Republican candidate at any level (President, Senator, Governor) who was run in Colorado since 2006.

[SWE]

Senate maybe, guv no.

[5280]

My current prediction: Hickenlooper will win, and Udall will lose.

[backtored]

It isn't a hex, but, yes, the GOP will probably win the Senate race. The gubernatorial race is likely very tight, and anyone who believes that either candidate has much of an advantage is being unrealistic. It took a really long time for folks here to accept Gardner's advantage in his race. I suspect it'll take until November 5th for a lot of Dems to appreciate Hick's vulnerability.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If the polls don't show Gardner and Beauprez with more than a 3-4 point advantage, Republicans lose.

'08 Prez
'12 Prez
'10 Gov
'10 Sen

Double digit Dem wins were harder to peg in Ritter's '06 run and Udall's '08 run.

[Vosem]

There is no hex at all. Republicans triumphed in the Atty Gen, Treasurer, and Sec of State elections in 2010, while a poor nominee for Senate was just barely edged out; Republicans managed to maintain their 4-3 majority in the House delegation in 2012.

Since the hex does not exist, I don't see how Republicans can possibly break it. But if you're asking for my opinion on Republican chances in the 2014 gubernatorial and Senate elections, I think Gardner and Hickenlooper are both currently ahead, and that Beauprez has a better chance at an upset than Udall.

[KCDem]

There is no hex at all. Republicans triumphed in the Atty Gen, Treasurer, and Sec of State elections in 2010, while a poor nominee for Senate was just barely edged out; Republicans managed to maintain their 4-3 majority in the House delegation in 2012.

Since the hex does not exist, I don't see how Republicans can possibly break it. But if you're asking for my opinion on Republican chances in the 2014 gubernatorial and Senate elections, I think Gardner and Hickenlooper are both currently ahead, and that Beauprez has a better chance at an upset than Udall.

LOL

[Indy Texas]

Bob Beauprez is a has-been who only won the primary because he was the only non-batsh!t candidate running.

[backtored]

Bob Beauprez is a has-been who only won the primary because he was the only non-batsh!t candidate running.

He may also be Colorado's next governor.

[Maxwell]

I say Gardner wins and Beauprez loses narrowly.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If the polls don't show Gardner and Beauprez with more than a 3-4 point advantage, Republicans lose.

'08 Prez
'12 Prez
'10 Gov
'10 Sen

Double digit Dem wins were harder to peg in Ritter's '06 run and Udall's '08 run.

Wow, that's looking pretty consistent. I just remembered the Senate 2010 race because that was a surprise that Bennett won considering his polling in otherwise such a bad night for Democrats.

Hawaii is another state where Democrats seem to underpoll. The bad news is that Alaska is one where they seem to overpoll.

[Maxwell]

If the polls don't show Gardner and Beauprez with more than a 3-4 point advantage, Republicans lose.

'08 Prez
'12 Prez
'10 Gov
'10 Sen

Double digit Dem wins were harder to peg in Ritter's '06 run and Udall's '08 run.

Wow, that's looking pretty consistent. I just remembered the Senate 2010 race because that was a surprise that Bennett won considering his polling in otherwise such a bad night for Democrats.

Hawaii is another state where Democrats seem to underpoll. The bad news is that Alaska is one where they seem to overpoll.

If you eliminate the bad pollsters you guys always throw out (rightfully so), it gets much closer to reality. Also, the 2010 Gubernatorial election should be thrown out considering that was unprecedented and doesn't really have a parallel this cycle.

I mean, obviously I'm just talking at the wind at this point so I'll stop saying this.

[SPC]

If the polls don't show Gardner and Beauprez with more than a 3-4 point advantage, Republicans lose.

'08 Prez
'12 Prez
'10 Gov
'10 Sen

Double digit Dem wins were harder to peg in Ritter's '06 run and Udall's '08 run.

Wow, that's looking pretty consistent. I just remembered the Senate 2010 race because that was a surprise that Bennett won considering his polling in otherwise such a bad night for Democrats.

Hawaii is another state where Democrats seem to underpoll. The bad news is that Alaska is one where they seem to overpoll.

If you eliminate the bad pollsters you guys always throw out (rightfully so), it gets much closer to reality. Also, the 2010 Gubernatorial election should be thrown out considering that was unprecedented and doesn't really have a parallel this cycle.

I mean, obviously I'm just talking at the wind at this point so I'll stop saying this.

While I concede the possibility of a Udall win, Democrats using a small sample size of elections in which Rassy and ARG are over-represented as some evidence of a Hail Mary just means that I will laugh twice as hard in the equally likely event that Gardner wins by 6-8 points.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Have we figured out yet why Udall isn't doing better? I have family members who pay attention to this stuff, and they say Udall may be the best member of the entire Senate.

[SPC]

A little blast from the past (just for clarity, the state referenced in the quotes below is NOT in fact Colorado):

Democrats always underpoll in Colorado

I still don't think this one is over.  Democrats always seem to close well in CO.

If you remember, Bennet was down a few pts in 10 too and won, Romney was tied with Obama late in 12 and lost.

Romney was tied with Obama in Colorado in 2012.  This state always swings towards the Democrats in the final weeks.

What's Udall done to annoy Colorado so much?

Nothing.  I feel like a broken record repeating this again, but Udall has always won in competitive races.  It's just the way Colorado is.  That the race is close should be expected, especially in what's shaping up to be a bad cycle for Democrats.

Democrats always seem to pull out the tough races in CO, every single time.

[Lief 🗽]

Er... except Feingold did underpoll in Wisconsin. It just wasn't enough:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_feingold_vs_johnson-1577.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/29/10-wi-gov-ge-jvf_n_728206.html

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A little blast from the past (just for clarity, the state referenced in the quotes below is NOT in fact Colorado):

Democrats always underpoll in Colorado

I still don't think this one is over.  Democrats always seem to close well in CO.

If you remember, Bennet was down a few pts in 10 too and won, Romney was tied with Obama late in 12 and lost.

Romney was tied with Obama in Colorado in 2012.  This state always swings towards the Democrats in the final weeks.

What's Udall done to annoy Colorado so much?

Nothing.  I feel like a broken record repeating this again, but Udall has always won in competitive races.  It's just the way Colorado is.  That the race is close should be expected, especially in what's shaping up to be a bad cycle for Democrats.

Democrats always seem to pull out the tough races in CO, every single time.

I stand by that statement

Udall could hypothetically do better than the polls are showing and still lose.  People sometimes make the mistake of treating toss-up tilt R as though it were no different than lean R.  Gardner objectively has the edge, but it is a very small advantage and likely less than what the polls are showing.  If Gardner wins by 1%, Udall will have still underpolled.

Btw, this is the statement SPC is referring to:

I'm not saying Feingold will win (though if he doesn't Wisconsin will become the biggest FAIL state), but don't count him out.  I know 1998 was a much more Democratic year, but it is significant that he was trailing by as much as 20% in some polls (regardless of the amount, everyone considered him a goner), but ended up winning by about 2%.  Beyond which, Democrats always underpoll in Wisconsin (the reason I also think Tom Barrett shouldn't be counted out). 

The environment for Dems in WI is truly toxic this cycle.  Control in the State Assembly and State Senate is likely to switch to the GOP as well as both Feingold and Barrett being in trouble.  Also, back in 98, Feingold was seen as a much more likable "maverick" than he is now.  His votes for the stimulus and Obamacare are a noose around his neck.  People know he's a reliable vote for the Dems when they really need it and that's not what they're looking for this year.  Could he come back to win?  Sure, if Johnson botches the debate tonight or makes some huge gaffe.  But, so far, he's run close to a perfect campaign.

I'm not saying Feingold and Barrett will win, I'm just saying those races aren't over. 

As it turned out, Feingold was underpolling (just not enough to change the winner).

[Miles]

I really don't see what's so great about Beauprez but I'm very worried about the Senate race.

[RI]

I may change my mind, but I still think both Dems pull it out.