The democrats are going to gain a seat in the senate this november
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  The democrats are going to gain a seat in the senate this november
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Author Topic: The democrats are going to gain a seat in the senate this november  (Read 6525 times)
Matty
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« on: October 15, 2014, 10:08:44 PM »

Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky will go dem. West Virginia and Montana will go republican. SD will stay democratic.  The dems will hold on to Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Alaska.

The reason I believe this is because the polls are underestimating minority turnout, just like in 2012. Virtually all of the swing states (besides maybe Iowa and NH) have sizable minority populations that are not being polled. For example, the polls are not reaching bush people in Alaska. That is tens of thousands of begich votes. The polls are not reaching hispanics in Colorado. That is tens of thousands of Udall votes. The polls are not reaching blacks in Georgia or Kentucky. THat is tens and tens of thousands of Nunn and Grimes votes.
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KCDem
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2014, 10:12:46 PM »

Dominating!
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2014, 10:12:53 PM »

I wish.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2014, 10:14:31 PM »

California. Yellow avatar. Let me guess what you were up to before posting this thread...
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DrScholl
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2014, 10:37:42 PM »

I'm not so sure Georgia and Kentucky will flip, but I do think there is a chance that WV, MT and SD are the only losses for the night. SD could have been hold with the right candidate, but that isn't the case.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2014, 10:47:54 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2014, 11:14:45 PM by Lief »

Best case scenario for Democrats, IMO:



Democrats: 53 + 1 (Orman)
Republicans: 46
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2014, 11:12:35 PM »

Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky will go dem. West Virginia and Montana will go republican. SD will stay democratic.  The dems will hold on to Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Alaska.

The reason I believe this is because the polls are underestimating minority turnout, just like in 2012. Virtually all of the swing states (besides maybe Iowa and NH) have sizable minority populations that are not being polled. For example, the polls are not reaching bush people in Alaska. That is tens of thousands of begich votes. The polls are not reaching hispanics in Colorado. That is tens of thousands of Udall votes. The polls are not reaching blacks in Georgia or Kentucky. THat is tens and tens of thousands of Nunn and Grimes votes.

Unfortunately, no.

Can I ask if these results will be taking place in the same universe as the following one?

Article does not take into account demographics. Whites will be a minority in 2 elections. In 3 elections, less than half of the states will have a majority-white population. In 5 elections, NO state will be majority white.

I would wager that a good 70-80% of people ages 18-25 watch those shows weekly, and the shows really do a good job of selling and advertising the democratic party in a humorous way.

IIRC, Mexican-Americans voted in droves for Republicans in each election up until Nixon. What do you think ticked them off? (or who?)

With all due respect, I don't think analysis of demographics is your strong-suit. You need, like, data or something.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2014, 11:15:23 PM »

No. This is a midterm. The level turnout won't be anything like what it was in 2012 (which had a presidential election). Hope that helps.
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Matty
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2014, 11:25:59 PM »

With one robocall to African American voters, thad cochran was able to swing that primary election by getting thousands to the polls that otherwise wouldn't have showed up. If an old white Mississippi republican can do that with a robocall, I see no reason why democrats can't get these same folks to the polls on  November 4th.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2014, 11:38:05 PM »

California. Yellow avatar. Let me guess what you were up to before posting this thread...
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2014, 12:48:00 AM »

With one robocall to African American voters, thad cochran was able to swing that primary election by getting thousands to the polls that otherwise wouldn't have showed up. If an old white Mississippi republican can do that with a robocall, I see no reason why democrats can't get these same folks to the polls on  November 4th.
Because he was running against an extremist. Not a single one of the republican candidates in competitive races (not even Ernst or Cotton) is like McDaniel.

Secondly, midterm turnout is always lower, and more republican, than presidential elections. Simple fact that proves true every single time. With the exception of 1998, the president's party always loses seats in both houses of congress in their sixth year. It's something we've seen happen under the beloved Ronald Reagan, the hated George W. Bush, and tons of other presidents.

When it's just a few seats in the senate and not the presidency, people don't care, and no amount of robocalls is going to change the "It doesn't matter how things turn out. Filibusters/teapartyists/far-leftists/reid/mcconnell etc. will prevent anything meaningful from getting done, and we aren't choosing a world leader who will attempt to bring on a new agenda." attitude.

Furthermore, in 2010, the polls in CO and NV were wrong because on-the-fence voters couldn't bring themselves to vote for Buck/Angle. Other competitive races where republicans were leading in polling - WI, PA, MO, KY, NC, IL - still went republican. The only race where that sort of last minute fallout could happen this time is in Iowa, and even that's doubtful. Cotton might qualify if he were running in NC or CO, but he's running in Arkansas, which he is definitely not "too far right" for. The non-IA competitive races where republicans lead (AR, LA, KY, GA (at least once we get to a runoff), CO, AK, SD), if things stay as they are for the next two weeks, will go republican.

The best reasonable scenario for the democrats at this point is 51-49, and even that's doubtful.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2014, 06:28:52 AM »

California. Yellow avatar. Let me guess what you were up to before posting this thread...

Hey that's not fair. I do that before posting here all the time and it doesn't make me think the Dems are going to hold the Senate.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2014, 06:42:58 AM »

No.
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Beezer
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2014, 07:33:12 AM »

Yeah and the Royals are gonna win the AL.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2014, 07:54:52 AM »

This thread is going to have every blue avatar bumping it after Election Day. Great work!
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KCDem
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2014, 08:22:14 AM »

Yeah and the Royals are gonna win the AL.

It may happen, bro.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2014, 09:19:18 AM »

Okay, Dick Morris!
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2014, 03:42:11 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2014, 03:46:19 PM by Liberalrocks »

I hope I can come back to this thread and confirm its validity on election day but the above stated points regarding turnout and the fact that some of these republicans running are not extreme nut cases like Angle, Buck, O'Donnell, Akin, Mourdock make me think the dems will have a tougher time holding the senate. If they do as one poster stated it will be by the a small margin. The hair on their chin.

I doubt it, I have my alcohol ready to drown my sorrows too.
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politicus
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2014, 03:43:36 PM »

This thread is going to have every blue avatar bumping it after Election Day. Great work!
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2014, 03:44:13 PM »

what is this
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2014, 03:56:40 PM »

Hopefully we win SD, Ia, KS,, CO, NC and  KY
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2014, 04:09:04 PM »

This thread is going to have every blue avatar bumping it after Election Day. Great work!

Yeah, I'm really starting to feel that this year will be a 2012 with parties reversed. Not a landslide, but still very painful for the losing party because they could have done so much better.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2014, 04:15:57 PM »

I could definitely see the polls underestimating minority turnout to the point where Democrats appear to be down in a couple seats where they're actually up (like Colorado and Georgia), but not to the point where Democrats would come out with any kind of net gain.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2014, 04:50:09 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2014, 12:20:15 AM by Mr. Illini »

Best case scenario for Democrats, IMO:



Democrats: 53 + 1 (Orman)
Republicans: 46

Best case scenario does not include Kentucky or Arkansas? Mmmmk.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2014, 04:58:35 PM »

Semi-realistic best case scenario for Democrats:



Dems lose MT and WV as expected; gain KS, GA, MS, and KY. Overall D+2.
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